RUGBY:IRELAND HAVE everything to lose and little or nothing to win in Thomond Park today.
A victory will not enhance their current world ranking of eighth whereas a defeat, albeit a 33 to 1 shot, would see them slip to 11th, not to mention constitute a disaster of near seismic proportions.
Plenty of water has passed under the bridge since Ronan O'Gara's late penalty averted humiliation and earned a draw when the countries last met, near Toronto eight years ago, and the 33-11 outcome from the one previous meeting in Ireland 11 years ago would look an altogether more reliable barometer. With Canada in rebuilding mode and Ireland kicking off a new regime with an array of players in prime form and highly confident, a packed, redeveloped Thomond Park should also provide a more inspiring backdrop than, say, one of those desultory, half-empty November occasions in Lansdowne Road.
The biggest blot on Ireland's landscape is the forecast isn't so much autumnal as decidedly wintry. And while the moderate rain of the first half is expected to relent in the second period, the strong wind will remain and as of yesterday for Ireland's captain's run, the pitch was already fairly sodden, and the home players less than happy with the unevenness of the pitch.
All in all, the conditions are bound to prove something of a leveller, and, facing into his first game as a coach in 24 weeks, is clearly of a concern to Declan Kidney. "Trying to stay on your feet at the breakdown is going to be difficult, because the conditions will be that bit more greasy," he said, adding: "We'll have to see: it's going to be an extra challenge for the skills of the players, but that will be the same for both sides.
"In the conditions, it gives defence an upper hand. It's like having an extra man in defence, because it makes it more difficult to attack. Ball handling becomes more precarious, you have to give a half step running on to the ball, so you deepen your attacking line by half a step."
In what might easily have been a description of Munster's inability to put Montauban to the sword in similar conditions here three weeks ago, Kidney added: "The defensive line can come that half step more forward, and catch you in behind the gain line unless you're very sharp, so that's what the weather does. It can make attack more of a challenge."
Not then, the ideal circumstances perhaps for Keith Earls to make his debut, though both the impression conveyed by his performances to date and team-mates is the youngster seems oblivious to fear or nerves.
Indeed, Brian O'Driscoll only added to this impression yesterday when observing: "He's acting like a 50-cap veteran, there's no need to worry about him. He's a really calm, nice young fella. He seems to take everything in his stride. I'm sure there's an underlying emotion there, but he's taken it all in. He'll play his own game and thoroughly enjoy his afternoon."
In keeping with modern trends, given the higher attrition rate in the backrow, Ireland have decided to accommodate both Alan Quinlan and David Wallace to the exclusion of specialist secondrow cover in Ryan Caldwell.
"We think coming into this game that there will be a lot of activity around the breakdown," said Kidney, "so an extra few loose forward, and we have enough cover in the secondrow to feel we can slot them in if needs be."
With the Canadians having made eight changes from the side which beat Portugal last Saturday (five of whom are European-based and weren't available last week), it's been hard for Ireland to get a handle on them.
Although rebuilding, with stalwarts such as Rod Snow, Mike James, Josh Jackson, Jamie Cudmore and Morgan Williams (though temporarily pressed into service as assistant coach-cum-back-up scrumhalf today) having retired, 13 of their starting line-up were amongst their World Cup squad. Their only debutant is winger Ciarán Hearn.
Like all Canadian sides, Kidney expects them to be packed with big men, well organised and well conditioned, and with experience aplenty across their frontrow, their scrum should be a decent test for Tony Buckley and co.
A clearly rejuvenated, refocused O'Driscoll himself looks to be in prime nick, both physically and mentally, as do his fellow backs.
Ireland just need to be clever about when to go for it, turn the screw territorially early on and keep a shape on their game rather than let it become ragged, as these types of games can sometimes become.
"Grow into the game and play smart rugby and be patient will be crucial," said O'Driscoll. "But also play what you see in front of you. Guys are playing well, they've been picked on merit and just because you've got a different colour jersey on doesn't mean you play any differently."
The haunting memories of Namibia and Georgia oughtn't to do any harm either.
Betting(Paddy Powers): 1/200 Ireland, 80/1 Draw, 33/1 Canada. Handicap odds (= Canada + 33pts) 10/11 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Canada.
Forecast: Ireland to beat handicap.
