Whenever Mark Carroll talks about his chances at major championships, he ends up talking about the whole of Africa as much as the whole world. With the 5,000 metres so heavily dominated by the Kenyans, Ethiopians and Moroccans, Carroll knows if he can match them then anything is possible.

The problem is that few Europeans have ever matched them. Eamonn Coghlan remains the first and only non-African to win the world 5,000 metre title, and the truth is no one looks like matching them for a long time.

The only consolation is that, unlike the Grand Prix circuit, there can be only three from each country at championship level. But throw in the odd Algerian and African-born European and the task of making an impression in Edmonton remains as daunting as a white man running sub-10 seconds for the 100 metres.

"To make the final, and not make the same mistake in Sydney, that's obviously the first task," says Carroll.

"Then we'll see who's in it. But it's very difficult to predict how you will run in the final. You will have 15 other guys each with their own game plan and you never get to run your own plan.

"For me it's a matter of trying to stay with the pace and remain as relaxed as possible, and then hopefully be in the right position at the right time. If I can be there at two laps to go then who knows - but the hard part is being there with two laps to go."

Unlike the Olympics last year, when the Cork athlete seemed to leave his best form behind him, the build-up to Edmonton has gone in the right direction. He consistently improved from 1,500 to 5,000 metres, and even with the depth of Africans awaiting him, he arrives as Ireland's only outside chance for a medal.

"Last year I came out in early June with guns blazing. I ran 3.34 straight up but I was too sharp too early. This year I've stayed at the longer base and the longer repetitions for a lot longer, and I think the timing is a lot better this year.

"On September 1st, before Sydney last year, I ran in Berlin and did 7.41 for the 3,000. The writing was on the wall right there. I think I had run my best races by that point. Physically you start to go off the boil and mentally you lose that focus."

After opening his season in Oregon in June by clocking 13 minutes 32.28 seconds for the 5,000 metres, Carroll, now 29, improved to 13.08.32 in Oslo in mid-July. That ranked him 20th in the world, but the second non-African, and was the race that told him he could get close to 13 minutes again this year.

"It's all about timing it right for Edmonton and I do feel I have my best races still in me. In other years I'd finish a 3,000 or a 5,000 and feel really beat up. It might take me a week or 10 days to recover. This year I have been recovering very quick, and all that extra work in the spring has been paying off.

"In the 1,500 metres in Stockholm I felt very strong as well, even though I hadn't done much speed work. So there's more there too. And in the 3,000 metres in Monaco I felt perfect really, and the only criticism I would have on myself there is that I didn't go for the win with 600 metres to go. I shouldn't have let it come down to the last 200, because you don't get too many opportunities to beat all the good Kenyans. And make yourself $15,000."

He put himself through three hard races in eight days - Oslo, Stockholm and Monaco - and that's provided the mental sharpener. The biggest danger is likely to come from the Ethiopians, including the Olympic champion Million Wolde, who have hidden away in their traditional training camp and avoided the temptation to over-race.

There may be another factor - the drug testers.

"A lot will depend on them, and if they do their bloody job. Let's hope they do. It's still a problem, but maybe not as big a problem because there has been a slowdown in the times. I think they're where they should be right now in the longer distances.

"You haven't seen many sub-13 minutes this year. In the past there have been guys on the stuff, there's no doubt about that. You just have to look at the inconsistencies in times. They just don't add up. But it's better now."

There is one other outside factor. The Spanish distance runners have a tradition of timing championships to perfection, and Alberto Garcia surprised a lot of Kenyans with his win in Stockholm. If he can make the mix in Edmonton, then Carroll won't be too far behind.