The in-form Willie Mullins stable have four runners in tomorrow's Pierse Hurdle. Brian O'Connorreports
THE PIERSE Hurdle may traditionally be among the most competitive races run in Ireland all year, but the temptation tomorrow will be to plump for the statistical argument that champion trainer Willie Mullins brings to the party.
Mullins pitches four runners into the race, which makes him the strongest player numerically; however, even that pales into insignificance compared to the strike-rate that Mullins has assembled recently.
A nine-winner haul between Leopardstown and Limerick over the four days of Christmas was justifiably described as a "beano" by the red-hot trainer. But if anything, that run of form has turned white-hot. Since the turn of the year Mullins has had eight winners from 17 runners. That's the kind of strike-rate that gets figures types all-a-tremble and makes such a large team going into the first big prize of 2009 seem all the more formidable.
Throw in the stat that Mullins has, on average, saddled a winner-a-day for the last 36 racing days in Ireland and there's little doubt who the odds favour even in a race as competitive as the Pierse.
Fighting with numbers was a favoured tactic by Mullins' father, Paddy, trainer of the legendary Dawn Run, and twice a winner with Redundant Pal (1989-90) when tomorrow's race was known as the Sweeps Hurdle.
His son has tended to be more selective, but the appearance of Imperial Hills, Deutschland, Sesenta and Mullach Na Si tomorrow testifies to the strength of an operation which is exercising a rare hold over Irish jump racing.
As befits such a sharp and articulate character, Mullins isn't exactly startled and shiny-eyed at the statistical evidence. He is quick to point out how the turn of last year was also a notably successful time for his Co Carlow yard. The most important element of this current streak, though, is the quality contained within it, and this, remember, from a stable which has contained talent like Florida Pearl and a Grand National hero in Hedgehunter.
"We're not doing anything different but we have definitely hit form a little earlier this season," he says. "Normally we're a second-half of the season type of yard rather than a first. But I think it is maybe because we have a better group of horses now.
"I won't complain - unless things taper off!"
When disaster is always just a malevolent microbe away such caution is understandable, but right now there isn't a more potent collection of horses in the country, and in the novice hurdle category, in particular, Mullins is almost omnipotent.
Cousin Vinny, Hurricane Fly and Mikael d'Haguenet are headline acts among a crop of young horses which could dominate at this season's Cheltenham and other festivals for some years to come. Even for a stable that always contains front-line talent, they stand out as a vintage group that are a reflection of their trainer's determination over many years to increase the quality of his string.
It's no coincidence that they also reflect Mullins' determination to obtain talent from wherever is best. Unlike many of his Irish colleagues, there has been a willingness to tread the same path as the likes of Martin Pipe and Paul Nicholls and do his shopping in France as much as he does in Ireland. For those who still view the local point-to-point field as the best place to identify young talent, such a move is almost heresy. But Mullins is a true Europhile when it comes to securing potential.
"I want to buy quality at an affordable price and in France you can get that quality. What you get are racehorses with form, compared to the type of store horse that run in point-to-points. All a point-to-point proves is that one can gallop for three miles around a field," he says.
That ability to pinpoint talent in France has been no accident. The memory of how Dawn Run was killed in action at Auteuil was never going to prevent Mullins from exploiting lucrative opportunities at the Paris track. In 2003, Rule Supreme won a French Champion Hurdle. Since then he has been an annual visitor to Auteuil for the prestige meetings in May and June.
"They've been useful in making connections and also in getting to know the value of French form and which tracks to keep an eye on," he says. "I would always keep an ear to the ground in France. I don't use any one agent and we would listen to different people. When we were there last year it was my head girl who suggested we should take a look at Mikael d'Haguenet."
Hurricane Fly is another to have come from France, where he ran 10 times, including winning a mile Listed race at Saint-Cloud where he beat the subsequent Group One winners Literato and Spirit One. This winter he has been a revelation over obstacles, winning two Grade Ones under Paul Townend.
The teenage jockey has made a huge impression in the last number of months, especially when he substituted for Ruby Walsh.
"I've always thought he was a fantastic rider but in the last three months he has improved hugely. Compared to the summer I'd say he has improved a stone," Mullins says of his protege.
"I think a lot of that has to do with more discipline in the bata area!" he laughs. "His use of the stick wasn't great, and neither was his timing. But he has got strong and put on weight, and with that strength he has come to not rely on the stick as much. His timing has got better as a result too.
"It helps that he's very level-headed. I'm sure he is delighted he's getting recognition but he's a sensible young fella."
Townend was on board Imperial Hills when the shortest priced of the Mullins quartet tomorrow won at Leopardstown over Christmas, earning a 13lb penalty in the process. On top of a 10lb hike for his previous victory it means a rapid rise in the handicap, but one which has turned out to be useful.
"He needed every pound of it to get into the race but we hope he is still improving," says Mullins, who landed the Pierse in 2002 with Adamant Approach. "It's a tough race in that you need a horse who isn't exposed but is also tough enough. It's always a very fast-run race and you need the breaks around the last two bends."
Imperial Hills is no French import but instead a home-bred product from a mare whose prospective buyer failed to show up. Mullins now describes him as "a little star", especially since a successful wind operation.
"There was never a noise, but we knew something wasn't right as he was promising more than he was delivering," the trainer says, before pointing to Deutschland, seventh in last year's Pierse, and now returning to hurdling after a frustrating winter over fences.
"We were very disappointed with him last year and if he can come back from chasing he will have a nice chance," Mullins reports. "Sesenta isn't very big and she might be at the limit of her capabilities with this weight. But it's very hard to place her anywhere else, as this is the biggest handicap in the country."
It's no surprise then that the biggest yard in the country is pursuing it with a vengeance.