Jon Brodkinlooks at how for the Premiership strugglers the January scramble for new signings is a familiar story and why in some cases the impact can be decisive

It is frequently claimed championship and relegation issues are never decided midway through a season, but perhaps that no longer tells the full story. With the transfer window reopening tomorrow at midnight, the fate of clubs up and down the country may be shaped by the business they conduct over the next month. "You can do without it - you have to keep answering your phone to people ringing up about useless players," Harry Redknapp says. But as he proved with Portsmouth last season, these 31 days can make or break a campaign.

This winter window looks particularly important. The Premiership's title race has not been much affected by mid-season shopping since the window was imposed in 2002-03 but that may well be about to change. With Chelsea and Manchester United locked in a tight battle, Jose Mourinho and Alex Ferguson's purchases could tip the balance.

It is why Ferguson has tied up a three-month loan for Henrik Larsson and is hoping to bring at least one more player to Old Trafford, whereas he captured his most recent title, in 2003, without making a single January signing. Similarly Mourinho is seeking to fatten his squad because of injuries, underperformers and the unusual feeling of being second. Chelsea cruised home last season with Maniche the only significant mid-term arrival and did similarly a year earlier, picking up only Jiri Jarosik, but it seems likely next month will see at least one costly buy.

Ferguson believes the window is "over-rated in terms of what you can do" at clubs seeking players for Europe who are not cup-tied, but for teams battling relegation the scrabbling for signings is familiar and the impact can be decisive.

Think of the boost Birmingham received in 2003 from getting Christophe Dugarry, Matthew Upson, Stephen Clemence, Jamie Clapham and Ian Bennett, the roles played by Kieran Richardson and Kevin Campbell in West Bromwich's escape two years later, and the canny additions that revived Portsmouth last season. Armed with funds most struggling clubs cannot supply, Redknapp notably took Pedro Mendes, Sean Davis and Noe Pamarot from Tottenham's reserves, Dean Kiely from Charlton, Benjani Mwaruwari from Auxerre and Andres D'Alessandro from Wolfsburg.

"We had to do something," says Redknapp. "We either did something or we went down. We could have sat back and said we'll go with what we've got and finished 10 points adrift or we could take a chance. A lot of young (managers) like to let you think there is some kind of magic formula but the game is about knowing a good player and how they can fit into your team."

Yet with business restricted to one month, meticulous plans can fall by the wayside. "Teams have to panic-buy," Redknapp says. "We had to panic-buy last year. Tottenham had so many players they were the one club we could target and try and get players out of. I had watched them and they were players I liked. But if you bring the wrong players in and they don't come off, you've had it, really. Do you take the chance? Do Charlton now gamble? They have already spent £12 million in the summer - they have spent their money whereas (last year) we hadn't."

If summer tends to centre on long-term planning, January can be a time of instant fixes. Not for everyone, with Arsenal's buys including Theo Walcott, Abou Diaby and Emmanuel Adebayor, but especially for those in trouble.

"I have come here for the long term but we may have to decide short-term if those sort of people become available," says West Ham's manager, Alan Curbishley. "If I'm going to bring anyone in it's got to be some experience . . . I look at the backbone of Portsmouth - James, Primus, Campbell, Mendes, Kanu, people that have been through the mill."

Curbishley notes in his back four Anton Ferdinand, Danny Gabbidon and Jonathan Spector have no more than a season and a half's top-flight experience. "Last year was a first taste of the Premiership for a lot of them, so if I can do anything it may be people who would be unaffected by the position they find themselves in."

Upson, who is set to leave Birmingham, is a possible target.

Reserve teams provided solutions for Redknapp last season and that is an area Curbishley is examining but the former Charlton manager knows business can be tricky in January. Redknapp failed to land several preferred targets at Southampton in 2005 and the five additions he made failed to avert relegation, so even the most adept workers of the market can struggle.

"Clubs are loath to let people go and there's the position you find yourself in in the league," Curbishley says.

That is emphasised by Peter Varney, chief executive of Charlton, who need to strengthen as urgently as West Ham but have smaller funds. "In the summer you more often get targets you want because everybody has time," he says. "In January it's very rushed. Other clubs often need to know they will be able to get a replacement before they let go."

For Charlton and West Ham, complications have been multiplied by changes of manager. "You work outside the window to plan so you are ready to pounce when it opens," Varney says. "When you make changes this late it makes it difficult for us and the new manager. He quite rightly wants to bring in his own players and they might not be the players you were working towards. We are working around the clock to try to get in Alan Pardew's targets."

Varney insists Les Reed's departure was not timed to ensure someone else could do the January shopping, but the window surely features in the thinking of some clubs pondering managerial changes when it is the last chance to adjust a squad.

David Pleat, who experienced the window as Tottenham's director of football, believes clubs need to be creative. "Contacts come into it, knowing the clubs who have a financial weakness," he says. He struck a January deal with cash-strapped Leeds to buy Paul Robinson the following summer and exchanged Bobby Zamora and money for West Ham's Jermain Defoe. Zamora helped West Ham to promotion, and next month will be crucial for clubs chasing the Premiership dream.

"There's a danger you can go over the top in pursuit of this massive television deal in the Premiership, and if you do and you get your figures wrong there's no recovery," Pleat says. "You have to buy sensibly and always be looking at the worst possible scenario. In other words, 'If we don't achieve what we want with this signing, what's the best deal we can do to relieve ourselves of this commitment? Is he saleable or is it dead money?'."

For Premiership strugglers, Pleat believes a player in the mould of Tottenham's Edgar Davids would be a fine addition. "An experienced player with lots of medals and caps can walk into a dressingroom, stick out his chest and revive them by charisma and self-belief that percolates through to the players," he says. "But there are not many of them around."

Guardian Service