RUGBY/Toulouse v Leinster:THIS is it then. The Champions of Europe put their crown on the line against the Kings of Europe. As the final touches were being put to Le Stadium yesterday, even empty it almost represents as daunting an assignment as it looks. Leinster couldn't have a tougher May Day rendezvous.
The forecast of rain beforehand, and perhaps during, along with a drop in temperatures is unlikely to dampen the ardour of the rouge et noire supporters, who will bop to the familiar chant of “Qui ne sauté pas, n’est pas Toulousain”. He who doesn’t stand up is not Toulouse.
The first advances of blue drank beers in the outdoor bars of the pink city yesterday evening on a cloudy day, with temperatures around the 20 degrees, but Leinster having returned over 1,000 tickets of the 5,000 allocation they settled for, they’ll be outnumbered by around seven or eight to one.
Acknowledging the scale of the task is the first step toward climbing it, and all the sounds emanating from the holders indicate they have done that and prepared accordingly. Although resigned to being without Jonathan Sexton, they have faith in the experienced Shaun Berne and all the others have apparently pitched up in good nick.
Michael Cheika has also opted to start Cian Healy, preferring to spring the considerable weight of CJ van der Linde with half an hour or so to go, perhaps also on the premise that this suits Healy’s temperament as well as giving Leinster some impact off the bench.
Everything about Toulouse, probably the most decorated club in the world, is awesome, and that goes down to their selection (although they do have a doubt about hooker William Servat). Guy Noves has restored some of last week’s rested big guns, while opting for the more orthodox and reliable kicking game of David Skrela, with the game-breaking impishness of Jean-Baptiste Elissalde, also troubled by a calf problem, covering both half-back positions. Indeed, you can look at their bench and just wince. And Noves has long been one of the most pro-active employers of a bench to change a game.
Nonetheless, forwards coach Jonno Gibbes made the valid point during the week that Leinster don’t tend to encounter packs of the sheer size of Clermont in the less rarified environs of the Magners League. That experience alone should therefore stand to them. It will also have reminded them of the importance of their restart game, as well as discipline – although the odds are they might again struggle on Nigel Owens’ penalty count.
Leinster are also the only team to have toppled Toulouse in this ground in 11 matches – and that helps. It’s not as if they are stepping into the unknown and they’ll be of a mind to take a leaf out of that four-year-old manual when they dared to run it from anywhere and won 41-35.
In the quarter-finals of three weeks ago Stade Français fronted up hugely in the contact zone in leading until almost half-time. A week ago, Castres contained Toulouse and struck stealthily to lead at the break. Both were beaten, with Stade emphatically blown away by three brilliant tries.
Indeed, their offloading game, on all available evidence, is considerably more sharpened than Leinster’s and that, along with home advantage and that bench, justifiably makes Toulouse favourites.
Yet Leinster are one of the few teams who can mix it a high tempo with Toulouse and dare to take them on in their own Euro citadel, and therein lies the key. For to overcome Toulouse in the Heineken Cup on their own turf, as Glasgow also showed last season in the pool stages and Edinburgh did before them, you have to be daring.
The most seminal moment in that epic win here four seasons ago was in the 22nd minute, when Felipe Contepomi took off the top lineout ball up to the gain line, deftly sent Shane Horgan through on his inside and linked again for Brian O’Driscoll to cut through and score under the posts. It was the first of Leinster’s four tries that day. It was a statement of intent and sent a tremor through home ranks which endured for the remainder of the game. Besides, when O’Driscoll is on the pitch all bets are off.
Toulouse are the favourites but Leinster have a decent chance. If they can make another statement of intent and score a try early on, their chances will become even better.
Semi-final record: Toulouse: Played 8, Won 5, Lost 3. Leinster: Played 4, Won 1, Lost 3.
Previous meetings: (1997-98) Leinster 25 Toulouse 34; Toulouse 38 Leinster 19. (2001-02) Leinster 40 Toulouse 10; Toulouse 43 Leinster 7. (2005-06, q/f) Toulouse 35 Leinster 41. (2007-08) Toulouse 33 Leinster 6; Leinster 20 Toulouse 13.
Leading points scorers: Jean-Baptiste Elissalde 43. Jonny Sexton 60.
Betting (Paddy Powers): 4/11 Toulouse 20/1 Draw, 21/10 Leinster. Handicap betting (= Leinster +6 pts) 10/11 Toulouse, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.
Forecast: Toulouse to win.
