Chance central to sport

Now that it is pretty obvious that most of the fun which people used to get out of sport has disappeared and that money and power…

Now that it is pretty obvious that most of the fun which people used to get out of sport has disappeared and that money and power seem more important than the various sports themselves, it is only to be expected that people on the fringes are taking more than a passing interest.

Only this week the Labour Party government in Britain got into terrible trouble when it was discovered that a man deeply involved with Formula One motor racing, Bernie Ecclestone, had made a donation of £1 million sterling to the party. He was, it is claimed, rewarded when motor racing was made exempt from the British ban on tobacco sponsorship for sport.

Several of the big soccer clubs in Britain are now quoted on the stock exchange and share prices fluctuate according to what way the results of the matches go. It all seems to sad.

Even in Gaelic games, which claims to be amateur, the switching of managers from county to county and even from club to club gains a huge amount of publicity.

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In these circumstances it is no surprise that handlers have taken an interest in sport. Within the last few weeks an organisation called Game-Plan has been circulating some interesting but rather baffling literature which seems to seek to categorise people and, indeed, compartmentalise them. There is some emphasis on sport and sporting personalities.

The letter writer, one Eamon Kelly, homes in on Brian Ashton and Pat Whelan, the manager and coach, respectively, of the Irish rugby team. Ashton's personality type, he says, is unquestionably that of The Observer (also termed the Thinker). Pat Whelan's personality type is that of The Boss (also termed The Leader) while on the soccer side, Mick McCarthy is odds on to be The Questioner (also termed The Loyalist).

Nor does Mr Kelly confine himself to sport. Having said that the process of predicting behaviour is universal he goes on to say that Bertie Ahern, John Bruton and Mary Harney are all Questioners, Dick Spring is a Mediator and Mary Mcaleese is a Performer.

So, what is all this about? Apparently this is a type of system which divides various personalities by type and is called Enneagram (pronounced any-agram). Not surprisingly, it originated in the United States. It apparently has the blessing of the Jesuits.

Kelly, it seems, has been holding seminars and advising people for a considerable time and he believes that he has some useful advice to give to Whelan and Ashton.

In an open letter to the two men in the run-up to today's match he says: "It is important to view the game against New Zealand as a staging post on a journey which - in Brian's case at least - is planned to last well into the next century.

"The game on Saturday does pose some interesting challenges which, if taken together, suggest a winning margin of at least 18 to 20 points for the visitors." Such a scoreline, he goes on, could be used as a very positive platform for the rest of Ireland's international campaign.

"A potential danger point, however, will come if that margin is exceeded by the time the game is (say) 20 minutes into the second half. And that danger could be most profound in your individual temptations to "flip" your intellectualisation of the problem and turn logic on its head in anticipation of the post-match press conference."

Now, it seems to me that this is all very well and good but it doesn't take a psychologist to point out that a margin of 18 to 20 points would not, in the present circumstances, be all that bad. What would worry me is that this type of psychological analysis of what does or does not go through people's minds could be self-defeating.

We have all seen players with limited talents turn in some great performances and vice versa. Even after the most thorough preparation for a sporting event, things may just not work out.

It is precisely that element of chance which makes us love sport and spend so much time watching it and talking about it.

If we certain of the outcome of events beforehand the stadiums of the world would be empty. It is the very element of chance which compels us to be interested. Please don't take that element of chance or human frailty away from us. Please leave us with our field of dreams!