All-Ireland League: Tears, tantrums, triumphs, traumas; Saturday represents the watershed for promotion and relegation issues and the confirmation of play-off personnel. John O'Sullivan on the play-off picture
The permutations can get a little convoluted, but arguably the most clear-cut of the three AIB League divisions is the spat amongst the elite.
Clontarf lead the table on 56 points and know that victory over St Mary's College at Castle Avenue will see them clinch top spot and a home semi-final. Their opponents are likely to be Buccaneers (44 points), but it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the Connacht club could be usurped by Belfast Harlequins (40), or, mathematically, Galwegians (39).
Buccaneers face a difficult assignment in playing host to third-place Ballymena (52), with the Ulster side pretty much at full strength for the Athlone clash. The visitors trail Lansdowne (53) by a single point and know that they need to take the maximum five points from this game to be in with a chance of guaranteeing a home semi-final at Eaton Park.
It is unlikely that either Lansdowne - they welcome Galwegians on the back pitch at Lansdowne Road - or Ballymena will overtake Clontarf, and since Buccaneers can't catch them either, Lansdowne and Ballymena are vying for who plays at home in the semi-final.
Ballymena official Jonathan Millar admitted: "Our focus now is to try to get a home semi-final. To do that would require getting the five points and that is going to be very difficult in Athlone. Buccaneers will be trying to do the same. I can't see either ourselves or Lansdowne catching Clontarf, so Saturday's results will just determine who enjoys home venue in a semi-final."
The Ulster club is missing just one starter, the injured Adam Larkin, but his replacement, Paddy Wallace, scorer of 32 points against Terenure last time out, isn't too shabby a deputy.
Lansdowne's Joe Leddin attributes their excellent season to the virtues of a settled team under the baton of coach Harry Williams (his second season), the experience of representative players like Liam Toland and Aidan McCullen and the arrival of the outstanding Matt Leek. He also cited the input of former players Andy Doyle and Kurt McQuilkin in the coaching aspect of affairs.
If Lansdowne were to end up with a home semi-final, then the club has not yet decided whether it would take place on the back pitch at Lansdowne Road of the international venue. Williams wishes on that issue would probably be respected.
Dolphin is poised to make a return to the elite division for the second time in its history. The Cork club has 52 points, a couple clear of Limerick rivals Old Crescent. Dolphin host Malone at Musgrave Park on Saturday, a happy coincidence, as the last time they were promoted to Division One they beat the Belfast club (away) 29-15 in April of 1997.
Crescent host Old Belvedere at Rosbrien and must hope that Dolphin slip up and they take full points. The only consolation is that the Limerick club is guaranteed a home semi-final in the play-offs. To complete that picture, Thomond and DLSP are third and fourth respectively, separated on 39 points by points differential. UCC, Barnhall and Ballynahinch can still make the play-off picture, some on extremely tenuous mathematics.
Thomond travel to the already relegated Greystones, while DLSP entertain Sunday's Well at Kilternan. If both teams win then any further permutations become redundant.
In Division Three, Waterpark (55 points) are a sliver of strapping away from promotion. The nearest rivals, Instonians, are five points adrift and a bonus point would suffice to take the Waterford side into Division Two for the first time after 10 seasons at the lower level. The fact that they play host to Skerries, third from bottom, suggests that they will meet that requirement and more.
Instonians have to dream the dream of promotion while at the same time ensuring that they guarantee home advantage for the semi-final of the play-offs. To do so they must beat Banbridge at Rifle Park. Wanderers (48) meet second from bottom Naas at Merrion Road and look certain to claim all five points. If that's not enough then their reward will be a trip to Instonians in the play-offs.
The fourth play-off place rests between Corinthians (45) and Old Wesley (41), with the Connacht club needing only to beat Queen's University, Belfast, to ensure a semi-final away to Waterpark.
Monkstown's time in senior rugby is at an end, with their relegation from Division Three - to be replaced by the winner (probably Kilkenny) of the round robin series - already confirmed. It is a shame for a club whose core values were friendship and fun .
