Next Friday, the IRFU committee will try to address the vexed issue of what to do with the clubs. On Saturday, the ailing AIL will belatedly kick off to a gloomy backdrop, it's thunder long since stolen by the provinces and with the prophets of doom forecasting its demise. So it's crunch time for the clubs again. But has it ever been any other way?
It will be recalled that we've been down this road before, when the clubs rejected original proposals for the league concept fully five years before it was foisted on them by the union for the 1990-91 season. In no time, of course, they were all singing a different tune, and by the 1993-94 season all were aboard in a 49-club, four-division AIL. Too little too late.
In many ways, the clubs have been authors of their downfall, with far too many of them at senior level and often stuck in non-competitive time warps. But the IRFU, the provinces and their branches were, in reality, no more visionary. For 50 years they gave us the stale old interpros, and came up with a two-round, sixseries complete with Super 12 points scoring system only when some of us thought of the ideas for them. Professionalism dragged them kicking and screaming into the modern day, and then the European Cup fell into their laps.
Now the horse has bolted and the "new reality" which IRFU rugby director Eddie Wigglesworth speaks of is that the clubs come a distinct third in the three-tier pyramid. And that's how it should be. Nor should this mean the end of the world for the clubs. Far from it.
At the risk of being repetitive, the clubs know their way around the junior and schools scenes better than the provinces. In attracting overseas players and coaches, not to mention blooding home players and coaches, they've been a vital conduit in Irish rugby's structures. Without them, who is going to fill that void, and where are the future unpaid devotees going to come from?
How the IRFU and, most importantly, the clubs themselves make the most of this new reality is a question of mindsets as much as anything else. At issue is whether they accept the inevitability of being without their international players, and even their provincial players on occasion, if AIL games clash with knock-out European Cup games.
As an aside (though they're rarely consulted), it's probably what the players would want. Yet much use could still be made of them in this scenario, such as attending matches to rub the flesh at pre-match lunches, attending mini-rugby or under-age games, etc.
Also at issue is whether the clubs go with an elite, curtailed first division format, or opt for a more inclusive, broader top tier. St Mary's, the defending champions and the club most affected by contractual obligations (a dozen with Leinster and a couple more with Connacht), argue for an elite top flight of eight teams and thus only seven games, which all their international and contracted players would be available for.
While respecting their views, frankly I don't think this washes on a number of fronts. First and foremost, this would limit some top-flight clubs to only three league home games a season. Can they really survive on that, with their superb bars and facilities open only to three AIL Saturdays a season and the lack of impact on their community which that entails?
While an elite top flight might make for a higher standard of game, it would do little to dissuade the wealthier clubs from buying success with the ?????? shamatuerish under-the-table payments of old; nor would it ensure that the club game underpins each of the four provinces. It would frustrate all club coaches and many players alike, who'd be kicking their heels even more often than they already are.
Paul Dean makes the point that Peter Smyth has only started one game this season, and there are a host of others on the fringes of their provincial sides in similar positions. Were there more AIL games running through the season, this would provide a far more valuable outlet than the provincial leagues and cups.
For, in a sense, this is the clubs' new role in the new reality, to underpin the provinces, as opposed to underpinning the international team. As Pat Murray says, you have to turn a negative into a positive. Knowing that leading lights will be absent from a certain number of AIL games will encourage clubs to develop talent more, and also encourage young players to join clubs where otherwise they might feel there was little chance of breaking into the first team.
Bearing this in mind, increasing, rather than decreasing, the number of first division games is a preferable option. This could be done either with a 12-team top flight, playing home and away in a 22-game campaign, or with a 16-club top flight. Either way, this would also guarantee more home games in which to generate revenue.
So much of Irish rugby is a hostage to tradition, but if English clubs can see the wisdom in playing games on international weekends, why can't Irish ones? If needs be, a set number of AIL games on provincial or international weekends could count for half the value, say two points for a win, although that might be flawed.
Comfort and sustenance can be found elsewhere. The GAA club game is subservient to the counties, but it still has a vibrant life of its own, culminating in a big day out at Croke Park on St Patrick's Day. With a vibrant life of its own throughout a good chunk of the season, the AIL too could have a few days in the sun, culminating in a live, televised, three-course, divisional final day feast.
It's as much a question of mindsets as anything else.