Backdrop to next weekend's Ireland-Wales clash: Machinations in the principality are likely to have a huge bearing when Wales emerge in Lansdowne Road, writes Gerry Thornley
So here we are then, as expected, Ireland and Wales having arrived at the pivotal point in their Six Nations campaigns smoothly on course, with one away defeat each to the Big Two, and home wins over last season's whipping boys. Just like that. Ne'er a hiccup between the two? Hardly, for the pair of them haven't half reached this point via a circuitous and problematic route.
Unconvincing in victory over Italy, Ireland lurched from awful to brilliant in Paris. But for all the barrage of stats Eddie O'Sullivan has used to back up his assertion that players' mistakes rather than preparation, selection or strategy undermined Ireland in the first 50 minutes, and that the last half-hour was a coming together of the masterplan, the quality of that performance remains a subject of much criticism out there.
Ireland's longest-serving coach has never been under so much pressure, while the presumption had always been that his counterpart tomorrow week would be impregnable. Meantime though, over in Wales, Mike Ruddock has gone, in six weeks, from OBE to DCM (Don't Come Monday.)
Like all these sudden coaching departures, the truth invariably comes out gradually and we already know more about this latest Welsh saga on Saturday than we did on Tuesday evening, when Ruddock's leaving was allegedly for "family reasons".
Those grounds must once upon a time have been original and even convincing (for example, with the imminent retirement of David Humphreys, they are probably the main reason), but whether or not sport has made us more cynical, "family reasons" has long since become a cliche - a sort of catch-all phrase calculated to mask a less edifying truth. And nobody, but nobody, was buying it this time.
Why would anyone, least of all a 46-year-old professional coach who was in the job he loved - and had lately presided over a first Grand Slam in 27 years - feel suddenly compelled to spend more time with his family in the middle of the Six Nations and in the week when he was actually going to have more time with them anyway? It didn't stack up, not least because there were rumblings of discontent within Wales last autumn and again before they started their defence of the Six Nations.
Informed Welsh journalists had relayed rumours of dissatisfaction among players that Ruddock was trying to introduce a more structured approach in the autumn on the premise that opposing coaches would have figured out their offloading game this year.
All along, word from the Welsh camp was that the assistant/skills coach, the Australian Scott Johnson, was the real brains behind the operation.
As the Six Nations neared, furthermore, Ruddock's contractual negotiations with the Welsh RFU had not been resolved. The London Times yesterday reported Ruddock had still not been paid his win bonus (£20,000) from last year's Grand Slam. Though the WRU chief executive, Steve Lewis, later rejected that, saying Ruddock's advisers had asked for payment of £18,000 of the £20,000 to be deferred, the money to go into a pension fund, and payments would start in May.
The same newspaper also reported that while Lewis had suggested in his statement of Tuesday night it was Ruddock and his advisers who had pulled out of the latest negotiations, they quoted a letter from Lewis to Ruddock's solicitors on February 8th stating it was the WRU who were "suspending negotiations in connection with the new contract until the completion of the Six Nations".
Damningly too, the Llanelli coach Gareth Jenkins - who unexpectedly lost out to Ruddock when favourite to succeed Steve Hansen as Welsh coach two years ago - has already ruled himself out of the equation.
"I would find it very difficult to work with the group of people who manage Welsh rugby at this time," he said.
An emergency board meeting of the WRU on Thursday lent qualified support to Lewis and Johnson, until the end of the Six Nations, but Ruddock's appeal to address the board directly next week has generated popular support. If his wish isn't granted, there's a groundswell of demand for an extraordinary general meeting of the WRU and all its 240 clubs.
There is talk - unconfirmed, it has to be stressed - the hugely influential captain Gareth Thomas last week led a delegation of senior players, supposedly including Martyn Williams and Stephen Jones, to inform WRU officials of their misgivings about Ruddock's coaching and their fear of losing Johnson, a lateral-thinking, cutting-edge coach, to the Wallabies as part of John Connolly's new dream ticket.
When Lewis, WRU chairman David Pickering and Johnson fronted last Tuesday night's press conference, praise for Ruddock's coaching was less than wholehearted: "Yeah, he's a good coach," said Johnson, adding when pressed, "He's great. Is that okay?"
Apparently there may also have been annoyance over how Ruddock was given so much of the glory for the Grand Slam. This is surprising, given the amiable Ruddock played down his own role.
Ironically, one of the few minor adjustments to the Hansen/Johnson blueprint he took credit for (along with bringing the out-of-favour Gavin Henson back into the fold) was choosing Thomas as captain.
If, however, the players resented in any way the awards heaped upon Ruddock, it was nothing compared to the reflected glory in which Henson, the celebrated centre, eagerly basked. Very engaging if a little naive in the public glare into which he has been thrust, Henson - as even the dogs in the valleys now suspect - provoked a mixture of amusement and scorn among team-mates, not least for his diary, vaingloriously titled My Grand Slam Year.
Thomas, in particular, passionately adheres to the squad ethic. When the ghost writer of that book, Graham Thomas of BBC Wales, penned a piece in the England-Wales match programme backing Henson's right to express his views and welcoming his public candour in the modern-day world of sporting cliches, the Welsh captain ill-advisedly led a protest no-show at the Welsh media day last Wednesday week until his namesake left the room.
Although the Welsh captain apologised the next day, Ruddock had not stood beside his players and instead had attended the press conference the players boycotted.
That may or may not have been the catalyst for Ruddock losing the players, but it can't have helped. Viewed in this light, a recall for Henson this week after his 51-day suspension looks unlikely.
The term "player power" has a certain forbidding ring to it, suggesting some players have gone way beyond their station and any incoming coach will inevitably have a hard job bringing them into line.
One recent display of player power happened at Leinster - the heave against Gary Ella two seasons ago. But then again, aren't Leinster better off? Undoubtedly, a highly successful team or squad can become as difficult for a coach to control as a malfunctioning one short on confidence and results. Just look at England post-2003 World Cup.
If Wales revert even more to last season's type under Johnson, you'd half expect them to turn up at Lansdowne Road tomorrow week ready to play a glorified form of basketball. Indeed, viewing Ireland in their Parisian light, you'd suspect that whichever pack shows up with, say, three big scrums and three big mauls is liable to make the difference. This onus is greater on Ireland, and they are also more likely to deliver.
By contrast, Wales are far more advanced in their all-singing, all-dancing game than Ireland. They have tight-five forwards like Robert Sidoli and Duncan and Adam Jones, as well as backrowers like Williams and Michael Owen, who are eminently comfortable at supporting, attacking open space and offloading off either hand.
They've also had Johnson for a number of years, whereas Ireland have Brian McLaughlin as skills coach, a full-time IRFU appointment made at the behest of his old mate O'Sullivan, who as yet enjoys nothing like the popularity Johnson has managed to inspire among his squad.
For all the Welsh players' apparent gnashing of teeth over the departure of Hansen and preference for Johnson, it is undoubtedly the case that the Welsh set-pieces and pack play (Ruddock's forte) improved immeasurably under the former Bective Rangers and Leinster coach.
And if the rest of the squad are not fully behind the apparent heave against Ruddock, there must be a real danger of Wales imploding tomorrow week in Lansdowne Road if they fall a score or two behind.
Against that, it might galvanise them. Either way, the backdrop could make this a potentially explosive affair.
But if Wales's season does go pear-shaped after the controversial departure of Ruddock, they will cop some flak. One can even imagine the travelling Welsh public booing them off the pitch if they get smashed for a fourth time running in Ireland. And Johnson, Thomas and the rest of the players and management must be more acutely aware of that than anyone.
