RUGBY:SPORT, LIKE life, is largely a matter of expectation. Dealing with it examines mental and physical aptitude. Leinster go into this evening's Heineken Cup quarter-final as strong favourites to advance to the penultimate stage of a tournament they won so memorably at the Millennium Stadium last May.
The bare statistics support their candidacy and are further endorsed by the misfortune the Cardiff Blues have suffered in terms of injury and circumstance that have denied the Welsh club the services of inspirational captain Sam Warburton and key players Jamie Roberts, Paul Tito, T Rhys Thomas and Tau Filise.
In contrast, good medical husbandry aligned to dedicated rehabilitation have ensured Brian O’Driscoll and captain Leo Cullen have returned from long- and medium-term injuries respectively in time for the business end of the season.
Leinster’s results, the blip against the Ospreys notwithstanding, represent an impressive catalogue of success. They have won all five previous European outings at today’s venue and embrace the contest on foot of a hard-nosed performance in winning at Thomond Park last weekend.
Cardiff have never won an away quarter-final, losing on their travels to Bath, the Scarlets, Gloucester and Toulouse. Last weekend’s display against Edinburgh was abject, resulting in a 31-3 thumping. They have limped into this match, also having to contend with the distraction of the Gavin Henson situation. Several players will be leaving the club at the end of the season.
The Blues, though, shouldn’t care one whit about the peripherals because for 80 minutes they have an opportunity to concentrate on simply playing rugby, burdened only by personal ambition.
They still harbour plenty of quality in their ranks, manifest in recent Grand Slam winners like Leigh Halfpenny, Alex Cuthbert, Gethin Jenkins and Bradley Davies.
The decision to opt for Connacht-bound Dan Parks, at outhalf in preference to Ceri Sweeney, suggests the visitors are going to play a more structured, territory-oriented game. His remit will be to engineer field position and punish any Leinster indiscipline.
The Blues will have targeted their hosts’ set-piece of scrum and lineout, knowing if they can deny or destabilise that platform it will compromise Leinster’s facility to implement their high octane, expansive patterns. A key for Cardiff is whether they hope to win or genuinely believe they can: a good start is not negotiable.
Leinster coach Joe Schmidt has restored Cian Healy, Richardt Strauss, Leo Cullen and Seán O’Brien to the starting team.
The home side will have attended to their analysis diligently, but in truth to try and guarantee a successful outcome they need to look no further than the mirror. There can not be a scintilla of complacency. They need to be aggressive, precise and execute ruthlessly; patient and disciplined.
Cardiff would dearly love to see the match turned into an arm wrestle. The biggest compliment Leinster can pay the visitors is to replicate the intensity and integrity of performance of the knock-out stages last season.
Leinster will look for intelligent game management at halfback, subtlety and variety in midfield to create space for the in-form back three that includes their leading try scorer in the tournament, Rob Kearney. To accomplish this, the pack must provide the platform, quick, go-forward ball.
If O’Brien, Richardt Strauss and Jamie Heaslip can be released into open spaces then the tight five and the voracious work ethic of Kevin McLaughlin are going to have to excel in tighter confines.
The final piece of the jigsaw will be to honour the interpretation of referee Dave Pearson at scrum-time and the breakdown.
Leinster’s starting point this evening is to manage expectation and so so guarantee a positive outcome.
LEINSTER: R Kearney; I Nacewa, B O’Driscoll, G D’Arcy, L Fitzgerald; J Sexton, E Reddan; C Healy, R Strauss, M Ross; L Cullen (capt), B Thorn; K McLaughlin, S O’Brien, J Heaslip, Replacements: S Cronin, H van der Merwe, N White, D Toner, S Jennings, I Boss, I Madigan, F McFadden.
CARDIFF BLUES: L Halfpenny; A Cuthbert, C Laulala, D Hewitt, T James; D Parks, L Williams; G Jenkins, M Breeze, S Andrews; B Davies, J Down; M Paterson, M Williams, X Rush (capt). Replacements: K Dacey, J Yapp, S Hobbs, M Cook, M Molitika, R Rees, C Sweeney, G Evans.
Referee: Dave Pearson (England).
Odds (Paddy Powers): Leinster 1/9. Draw 28/1. Cardiff Blues 6/1. Handicap: Leinster (-13) 10/11. Draw 20/1. Cardiff Blues (+13) 10/11.
Verdict: Leinster to win.
