A competitive 2005 NFL goes into its final series with only Armagh and Fermanagh assured of progress to the semi-finals next month. Admittedly, it's going to take freak results to stop Tyrone and Derry joining them, but the Division Two play-offs could also be an all-Ulster affair with Monaghan and Cavan both in with a good chance of joining Fermanagh and Derry.

Next weekend's meeting of Kerry and Tyrone in Killarney will have a vital bearing on the composition of the Division One semi-finals. The counties haven't met in serious competition since the controversial All-Ireland semi-final of 2003, as last year's regulation league fixture came earlier in the season when Kerry were quite understrength.

Eventually, both sides qualified for the semi-finals with Kerry going on to win the title before then adding the Munster and All-Ireland championships.

On Sunday, Kerry must win to remain on course to retain the trophy, but even if they do there is still an outside chance that Mayo can catch them.

Last weekend's win for Kerry when the counties met left Mayo eight points behind the holders in terms of scoring difference, but given that John Maughan's men face Leinster champions Westmeath - who have the leakiest defence in the division - in their last match the issue won't be settled merely by Kerry taking both points.

There is actually a slight chance that Tyrone would lose out should they get a sufficiently bad beating, but their scoring advantage over Mayo is a sizeable 23 so, in all likelihood, Mickey Harte's team will qualify.

The other outsiders are Cork. Should both Kerry and Mayo lose, Billy Morgan's team will advance should they defeat Donegal. Dublin are similarly placed, but their scoring difference (-11) makes any last-day surge highly unlikely.

Among the few issues decided beyond doubt after the weekend's penultimate round of the National Football League are the relegation of Donegal and Sligo from Division One. Donegal's fate in Division One A has been unfortunate with the four-point defeat by Tyrone their biggest setback. All four of the other losses were by a single point.

"We've only ourselves to blame for what happened on Sunday," said manager Brian McEniff. "With a big lead we started to go across and backwards and then we got the equaliser and had possession at the very end we turned the ball over and lost the match."

Donegal did record their sole victory to date against Kerry, but despite that McEniff favours them to accompany Tyrone into the semi-finals.

"I think Kerry weren't great on the day they played us and I'd say there's more to them. Tyrone are definitely in there with the squad of players they have, but they mightn't get the win on Sunday because of the venue. Killarney's a long way to travel. If it was up in Omagh I'd fancy Tyrone."

Overall, he is impressed with the standard of the football. "It's a great division and I'm very sorry to be going out of it. It'll be a big loss to Donegal financially and in terms of looking at players."

Joining Donegal in Division Two will probably be Westmeath. Even if they manage to beat Mayo and Offaly lose to Dublin there's still a massive 16-point differential to be erased if survival is to achieved.

McEniff's counterpart in Division One B is Dominic Corrigan, the former Fermanagh manager now in his first season with Sligo. The top of the division is delicately balanced. Armagh are through, but either Wexford or Galway could also make the semi-finals. (Kildare, Laois and Down are also on six points, but only Kildare have an outside chance of capitalising should both Wexford and Galway slip up).

"Armagh and Galway are the two that I'd rate as the top teams in the division," says Corrigan. "It's a close call and Galway slipped into the semi-finals last year on the final day, but I think Wexford will shade it. They're at home to Laois and are always difficult to beat in Wexford Park. I know they slipped at the weekend against Galway, but when Pádraic Joyce is in that sort of form any team would slip."

If Wexford take anything from this match they will qualify for the county's first football semi-final in 50 years.

Almost certain to join Sligo in taking the drop are Limerick who won when the teams met at the weekend, but Down's surprise win over Laois has probably saved the Ulster side.

"It was in the last minute and Liam Kearns (Limerick manager) came up to me and said that the result wouldn't matter," says Corrigan, "because Down had won".

That leaves Limerick needing to reel in a 16-point differential between their trip to Armagh and Down's visit to Galway.

Division Two is more clear-cut. In both sections A and B the second and third teams will play each other. Monaghan and Meath can afford to draw the matches against Longford and Cavan respectively. Otherwise, the winners will advance.

In Two A, Fermanagh can't be caught, but in Two B, were Derry to go down to what would be a sensational defeat against Tipperary and were Cavan to win narrowly against Meath, it would be just about possible for Mickey Moran's team to again lose out on promotion.