Today's Leopardstown preview: Solerina's claims for Smurfit Champion Hurdle glory next March have been largely ignored so far this season but that could change if the remarkable mare can land today's Leopardstown feature.
With the top five in the Cheltenham betting trained in Ireland, this afternoon's Bewley's Hotels December Festival Hurdle takes on even extra significance and the six-strong field is headed by current champion Hardy Eustace.
He is currently a 6 to 1 shot with Ladbrokes to retain his crown and the presence of Brave Inca (12 to 1) and Macs Joy (16 to 1) makes this a trial with more than the usual depth.
In the circumstances then, the general 20 to 1 about Solerina for Cheltenham could appear like something of an insult to a horse that has won 17 races. Only Hardy Eustace is rated higher than her by the handicappers and she beat him comfortably at Navan earlier this month.
The sceptics, though, point to two and a half miles being Solerina's optimum trip and the necessity for soft ground to show her best. But significantly the James Bowe team are confident it is ground rather than distance that is vital to their stable star.
She gets those testing conditions today and the Leopardstown authorities are also insistent that it will be a full two-mile trip that they race over.
In the past there have been persistent suspicions that the inside course measures less than two miles.
Among those convinced it makes a difference is Hardy Eustace's rider Conor O'Dwyer who is worried about conditions playing into the hands of a speed horse like Macs Joy.
But the Leopardstown general manager Matt O'Dwyer insisted yesterday the course is measured on an on-going basis and hits the two-mile mark exactly.
With the ground riding the way it is, however, there doesn't appear to be much chance of raw speed winning out and true stayers like Solerina and Hardy Eustace should not be inconvenienced.
The latter's seasonal debut convinced many he would reverse placings with Solerina the next time they met but there is no getting away from the fact that the mare still won with something in hand. There is also the reality that Hardy Eustace's form has been on a sounder surface than he will get now.
His trainer Dessie Hughes is, however, confident of a good run and said yesterday: "It looks like Solerina will be the hardest to beat but we have a good chance of turning her over. I've put blinkers back on him because two miles is a little sharp for him."
The same comment regarding ground can be made about Brave Inca who nevertheless ran a fine race considering he didn't jump well behind Solerina in the Hatton's Grace a month ago.
With the going likely to be the primary influence on the result, Solerina looks the one to overcome the opposition and the course and maybe gets those odds compilers into slashing mode.
Racing opens today with a Beginners Chase that sees the talented Beechcourt have a second start over fences. The first yielded a second to Sir Oj at Gowran, a run that now appears to be very good indeed considering how prolific Noel Meade's horse has been.
Stamina will be at a premium in these conditions and maybe Beechcourt could be worth taking on with the Charlie Swan-trained Strong Project, who only just lost out in a finish of heads at Navan 11 days ago.
The Boys In Green was the sole ray of light for JP McManus here on St Stephen's Day and Christy Roche's horse is set to go again today in the handicap chase.
Preference on this occasion however is for the Clonmel novice winner Mr Murchan.
There are some smart bumper performers going in the last, including five winners, and the best of them could be the Charles Byrnes-trained Vintage Treasure who justified favouritism on soft ground at Navan.
Southern Vic was a one length runner-up to Gauntama Bay at Gowran and the Ted Walsh horse is preferred to Tengo Ambro and the Sunday third Billy Bush in the maiden hurdle.
