MAGNERS LEAGUE/Connacht v Scarlets:THE PSYCHOLOGICAL impact of a team's last result before the November Test window and their standing in the table gives this weekend's seventh round of Magners League additional import. Nowhere will this be in greater evidence than at the Sportsground, where Connacht play host to the Scarlets in their last home league game of the calendar year.
Defeat will leave Connacht marooned at the bottom of the table, and while that looks their lot come what may this weekend, a victory over the team just two places and five points above them would at least keep Michael Bradley’s team in touch.
They might have been closer but for the concession of late tries away to the Dragons and Glasgow which denied them bonus points.
Bradley makes only two changes to his team, with Robbie Morris recalled at tighthead (Jamie Hagan drops to the bench) and Mike McComish returns to the backrow as Mike McCarthy switches to the secondrow (Jamie Hagan and Michael Swift drop to the bench).
This is pretty much a first-choice selection which includes Connacht’s three Irish squad members – Gavin Duffy and the frontrow pair of Seán Cronin and Brett Wilkinson – as well as Fionn Carr, who was a little unlucky to be overlooked. The 23-year-old has scored eight tries this season, and has scored four of Connacht’s five league tries and a dozen of their last 25. It is a remarkable strike-rate.
On the face of it, this looks a good time to be playing the Scarlets. Admittedly, Nigel Davies’ team are on a high after augmenting their back-to-back Heineken Cup wins at home to Brive and away to London Irish with last week’s important home win over the Dragons. However, they are without the six called into the Wales squad: centre and leading try-scorer Jonathan Davies, winger Mark Jones, outhalf Stephen Jones, scrumhalf Martin Roberts, hooker Matthew Rees and flanker Dafydd Jones.
Into the team come Morgan Stoddart, after a seven-month absence with a knee injury, Rob Higgitt, Rhys Priestland, Tavis Knoyle, Ken Owens and World Cup sevens star Richie Pugh. And in the secondrow Davies promotes Damien Welsh, whom he forecasts can go a long way.
Priestland kicked the region to victory against the Dragons and is a talented outhalf. Scrumhalf Knoyle makes a first league start.
Connacht punched above their weight against the Scarlets more than most until recently, and have won once in the last six meetings. However, this looks one of their more winnable games this season.
CONNACHT: G Duffy; T Nathan, N Ta’auso, K Matthews, F Carr; I Keatley, F Murphy; B Wilkinson, S Cronin, R Morris, M McCarthy, B Upton, J Muldoon (capt), J O’Connor, M McComish. Replacements: A Flavin, J Hagan, M Swift, A Browne, C O’Loughlin. M Nikora, L Bibo.
SCARLETS: D Evans; M Stoddart, S Lamont, R Higgitt, L Williams; R Priestland, T Knoyle; I Thomas, K Owens, D Manu, V Cooper, D Welch, S Easterby, D Lyons (capt), R Pugh. Replacements: P John, E Phillips, A Shingler, J Turnbull, G Davies, D Newton, G Maule.
Referee: Graham Knox (SRU).
Last three years: (06-07) Connacht 15 Scarlets 37; Scarlets 19 Connacht 10; (07-08) Scarlets 34 Connacht 11; Connacht 20 Scarlets 18; (08-09) Scarlets 43 Connacht 3; Connacht 14 Scarlets 17.
ML Formguide: Connacht – L L W L L L. Scarlets – W L L L L W.
Leading ML try-scorers: Connacht – Fionn Carr 4. Scarlets – Jonathan Davies 3.
Leading ML points-scorers: Connacht – Ian Keatley 47. Scarlets – Rhys Priestland 39.
Betting (Paddy Power): 5/4 Connacht, 18/1 Draw, 8/13 Scarlets. Handicap odds (= Connacht + 3pts) 10/11 Connacht, 18/1 Draw, 10’11 Scarlets.
Forecast: Connacht to win.
