Leinster v Connacht:IT LOOKS like trouble is on the horizon for Connacht. Seven of the eight Leinster forwards that featured in the 19-18 defeat at the Sportsground on October 5th are selected for the match today while former Connacht captain, now Leinster hooker, John Fogarty spoke this week about the need to raise the physical intensity to atone for that surprise defeat.
Leinster coach Michael Cheika has named his best available side but the replacements' bench has yet to be selected, a strong indicator that Brian O'Driscoll and Shane Horgan remain short of peak fitness. Girvan Dempsey is out with an ankle injury so Simon Keogh gets a well-deserved promotion to the wing as Rob Kearney switches to his more effective fullback role.
CJ van der Linde remains handicapped by a calf strain but Shane Jennings returns at the expense of Seán O'Brien and with the countdown to the Wasps match on January 17th beginning in earnest this evening, every starter is afforded a chance to solidify his position.
Connacht coach Michael Bradley makes four enforced changes to the team that ended a 22-year winless run against Munster. Be it due to injury or essential rotation, Gavin Duffy, Seán Cronin, Brett Wilkinson and Ray Ofisa are all out, leaving no recognised number seven in the line-up so Mike McCarthy moves from lock to flanker.
It also means two former Leinster fringe players, Fionn Carr and John Lyne, are afforded opportunities to showcase any improvements since migrating west. Carr's pace can destroy any team as long as he is given space by half-back pairing Ian Keatley and Frank Murphy. Some earth-shuddering warning signals were also sent out by centre Niva Ta'auso on his debut against Munster.
However, a backline's life-blood depends on the pack at least gaining parity. Therein lies the obvious difficulty as these Leinster forwards have something to prove.
Keatley moved to Galway last summer on a one-year deal after turning down another season in the Leinster Academy. The Grand Slam-winning Irish under-20 outhalf from 2007 felt he was ready for the next level and duly took the plunge. So far, he certainly hasn't drowned. "Coming from the AIL it was always going to be a big step up, but I feel I have coped pretty well so far. That was my first objective coming here; to adapt to the standard of the Magners League. I'm delighted with my place-kicking and the rest of my game is going in the right direction."
Keatley has every right to be content having held his nerve, and a stubborn loyalty to a unique kicking approach, to send Leinster, then Munster, packing from the Sportsground this season.
There was a moment in the recent Munster win when Keatley showed the potential of his all-round game - his tackling already stood up to a Rocky Elsom charge in October - when providing exhausted Connacht forwards with a late 60-metre trot downfield after a fine line kick.
"Forwards love it when you do that," said the Sutton native. "That was me returning the favour for them after all the hard work they put in. Place-kicking has always being something I worked on on my own. With the tactical kicking I look at the levels of consistency Ronan O'Gara has reached."
If it all ended tomorrow this would be a vintage season in Connacht's history and for Keatley. But, equally, it must be noted they remain rooted to the bottom of the league, four points adrift of Cardiff Blues and Ulster.
Their home pitch is a huge advantage but that is gone for today so due punishment is expected to be meted out despite Leinster being shorn of natural leaders like the soon-to-return Leo Cullen, O'Driscoll, Horgan, Bernard Jackman and Jamie Heaslip.
"It would be a shame if, after beating Munster, we turn around and lose heavily against Leinster," continued Keatley. "Sure, they will be at full strength and have revenge on their mind but we need to just try and keep the ball as much as possible. At training this week everyone has been up for it. No one went out after beating Munster as we only had a five-day turnaround. These matches are a great opportunity to show off, to have a good crack at lads who are ahead of you, to play against the best players in Ireland."
If these best players in Ireland actually live up to such billing then Connacht's quest for at least three more victories this season, to make the Heineken Cup qualifier spot, will not get the 2009 kick-start they require. For Leinster, discovering a run of consistency becomes paramount as they enter what could well be the defining period of the Cheika years.
The RDS Showgrounds will pass the 100,000 attendance mark for this season tonight, as over 15,000 tickets have been sold for the match.
LEINSTER: R Kearney; G D'Arcy, L Fitzgerald, F Contepomi, S Keogh; I Nacewa, C Whitaker (capt); C Healy, J Fogarty, S Wright; T Hogan, C Jowitt; R Elsom, S Jennings, S Keogh. Replacements from: B Blaney, R McCormack, M O'Kelly, D Toner, S O'Brien, J Heaslip, C Keane, J Sexton, S Horgan, B O'Driscoll.
CONNACHT: T Nathan; F Carr, N Ta'auso, K Matthews, L Bibo; I Keatley, F Murphy; J Lyne, A Flavin, R Morris; M Swift, A Farley; M McCarthy, J Muldoon (C), C Rigney. Replacements: S Cronin, R Loughney, A Browne, D Gannon, K Campbell, A Dunne, M Deane.
Referee: Peter Fitzgibbon (IRFU).
Corresponding fixture last season: November 2007, Leinster 29 Connacht 9.
Verdict: Leinster win with bonus point.
Nineteen points from Wales outhalf Stephen Jones helped the Scarlets to a Magners League victory, 29-24, over Welsh rivals Newport Gwent Dragons at Parc y Scarlets last night.
They had to mount a comeback as the Dragons, who earned a losing bonus point, led 17-10 at half-time.
The Ospreys got a deserved victory against Cardiff on December 31st with a score of 16-12.
Today's other match: Magners League: Glasgow v Edinburgh 3pm.
