Seán Moran argues the omens could be propitious for Cork's treble but the reality may be different

The big question for 2006 is Cork's potential three-in-a-row, an achievement recorded just seven times in hurling history but it's not by any means the only issue heading into this year's Guinness All-Ireland championship.

Although there has been no further tweaking to this year's structure, the weeks ahead will be notable for the absence of any Ulster candidates for the Liam MacCarthy Cup.

It's the first time since 1980 that the northern province has been out of the loop and is at worst a reproach to the efforts over the past quarter of a century to spread the game to all points of the GAA's compass; at best it's a demonstration of how difficult that missionary work has proved.

During that time Ulster hurling has managed one win over serious opposition, Antrim's defeat of Offaly and the consequent high point of appearing in the 1989 All-Ireland final.

So on one level the county's decision to contest the Christy Ring Cup is merely housekeeping, a realistic appraisal of where they will be most competitive - ironically coming after their best National Hurling League campaign in years - but on another it is a stark portrayal of senior hurling's inability to become more than a regional game despite decades of pondering the problem.

Meanwhile back on the expensive side of town, Cork are gearing up for a third successive title. The county has been the most successful at nailing down these treasured sequences and given that statistically we're overdue one, the omens could be said to be propitious for the champions' fifth triple strike.

Should it take place, the achievement would be remarkable for two reasons. Firstly, the All-Ireland is a far more competitive environment even if the field isn't exactly at an all-time strength. But the dilution of knockout fare means that you can't eliminate rivals methodically in the provincial championships - think of the impact that might have had on Clare during Cork's last three-in-a-row from 1976-'78.

Then there are quarter-finals to be negotiated; back in the 1970s there weren't even semi-finals every year.

Secondly, as things stand Cork could be winning a three-in-a-row with virtually the same team. Manager John Allen has just spent a pensive league watching as his first team have been put under little pressure for starting places by other panellists.

All of which means that if Cork are back in this September's All-Ireland, the team would be more or less unchanged.

Back in the less trying circumstances of the 1970s, 10 Cork players started all three finals. If the county is back at that level this year and the same team is chosen (even if Wayne Sherlock were to get back into the starting line-up), it will mean that 14 players will have been on each of the first-team selections.

This lack of organic growth is, however, more of a problem for the medium and long-term future than for Cork's immediate prospects. Sequences like this depend on continuity and experience as much as on the periodic infusion of new talent.

During the last two All-Ireland championships Cork have proved themselves more durable than fluorescent, able to take a significant defeat in the Munster final of two years ago and learn its lessons in time for the qualifiers. When there has been no safety net, as in last year's semi-final, they have been able to find the will-power to survive a close call.

They may not have razed enemy cities to the earth during their campaigns in 2004 and '05 but they have been effective in taking out all the important buildings.

The downside for Allen is if he hits an injury crisis, he is goosed. Imagine if what has happened Waterford were to befall Cork. How would the unavailability of, say, the O'Connors and John Gardiner affect their chances? Their price wouldn't drift any farther were it tied to a balloon.

Interestingly the team most similar to Cork pose the first obstacle to progress. The difference is that Clare's team isn't on the road as long even if the presence of so many veterans from the mid-1990s gives it a familiar feel.

There's a sense that Anthony Daly's side could spring a surprise in two weeks. They nearly did it last year and are well overdue a championship win. Would that be of All-Ireland significance? Perhaps not.

Galway have a growing number of takers given their experience of last year's final. But history offers uncomfortable precedents. In 1993 and 2001 the county was also widely presumed to have arrived as contenders but the following year brought only disappointment and the collapse of both promise and confidence.

Admittedly the qualifier system now suits them quite nicely and their recovery from 2004's humiliation by Kilkenny was

incrementally seeded through edgy matches against Limerick and Tipperary - neither serious contenders themselves - and blossomed in the defeat of Kilkenny.

But it is Kilkenny who look to have the best blend of new talent, winning All-Ireland experience and the mental aggression necessary to push for titles. It is a fair argument that they are no better placed now than 12 months ago, having wiped Clare in the National League final and that their emerging players are still unproven.

But championships are organic. The team that wins the All-Ireland will change between now and September. Cork have to overcome their shallow resources and the weariness that snags all repeat winners whereas Kilkenny have a range of options and the hunger that comes from remembering that this all started when they fell just short of their own three-in-a-row.