Cream surfaces in the last eight

Mark Lawrenson Soccer analyst: With the World Cup taking a two-day break after the second-round games, this is an obvious moment…

Mark Lawrenson Soccer analyst: With the World Cup taking a two-day break after the second-round games, this is an obvious moment to pause for reflection.

Even if I still feel this has been a good tournament with some really outstanding games, such as Argentina versus Mexico, and plenty of bright, attractive football, I have one major concern - refereeing.

I know we all complain about referees at World Cups but I feel that once this competition is over, Fifa and Uefa should sit down and reflect long and hard on the way some of the games have been handled here in Germany.

Let me be clear: I am not talking about the Russian referee Valentin Ivanov, who handled the Portugal v Holland game where we had the infamous 16 yellow cards and four red. That was one of those games where when you look back at the fouls on the TV replays, you tend to think the referee did the right thing. Frankly, that was a game where the two teams got stuck into one another and there was not a lot the referee could have done.

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No, I'm thinking more of other games where referees were too whistle-happy, almost as if they were trying to change football into a non-contact sport. There have been too many players going down for normal tackles, too much diving and a lot of the time, the referees have been fooled by it and blown for ridiculous so-called fouls. The result is that the game has simply not been allowed to flow.

Having got that gripe out of the way, I would say that I'm not much surprised with the line-up for the quarter-finals. Six of the last eight - Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany and Italy - have already won the World Cup, and quite frankly, they represent the cream of the cream.

Of the 24 teams that have been eliminated, only Holland and Spain could seriously have been considered as tournament winners before the finals began.

From here on, with teams like these involved, the football will be a lot tighter and I certainly do not expect a "goalfest". Mind you, we have seen some good football.

For me, Argentina versus Mexico was the best game of the tournament so far. That match had everything - it was technically brilliant, both sides were very well coached, the substitutions were clever, either team could have won and, in the end, it was decided by a great goal from Maxi Rodriguez.

Argentina are so obviously a good team but I would also like to point out that Mexico's coach, Ricardo La Volpe, did an outstanding job.

Of the four quarter-finals, I think the most evenly balanced has to be Germany v Argentina. I can see England beating Portugal, Brazil beating France and Italy beating Ukraine in the other three games, but the Germany-Argentina clash is a real 50-50 job.

The Argentines have so many options up front but they have problems in defence, where Gabriel Heinze has looked exactly what he is - namely a player on the way back from a lengthy injury lay-off.

If there is one thing these finals have underlined, it is that only a fully fit player can play here. If you are that little bit short of match sharpness, you really pay for it at this level.

As for Germany, their attitude has been very positive. They have taken the game to everybody, with both the strikers, Podolski and Klose, putting themselves about across the full width of the park, giving team-mates plenty of options. On top of that, both men have been scoring.

It is also possible the German coach, Jurgen Klinsmann, has said to himself, "Well, we are not exactly invulnerable in defence, so let's keep the ball in their half of the field and that way our defence will be fine."

Germany also have the whole home factor going for them. On the other hand, if there is one side that will not buckle under the pressure from the home crowd, it is Argentina. As I said, this one is 50-50.

When it comes to England's game against Portugal, I feel England will win it.

I can offer you no logical football reason for saying that; it is just a gut feeling. I know England have not played well yet but I think they have one great performance in them. I also think if you look back to Portugal v England at Euro 2004, England were the better side until Wayne Rooney got injured.

Even if Felipe Scolari is an excellent coach, he will be without Costinha, Deco and probably Cristiano Ronaldo. I also have a suspicion Portugal are one of those sides that feel a bit intimidated by England, maybe unjustifiably so.

France have done well, probably without their coach's help, to get this far. They are clever and experienced enough to give Brazil a run for their money, especially with Zinedine Zidane able to launch Thierry Henry behind a Brazilian defence where Lucio and Juan look beatable and Cafu and Roberto Carlos are often out of position.

Yet, Brazil are Brazil. They have been a bit cute so far but are starting to play well now when it matters. On top of that, it is obviously very hard to defend against a front line of Adriano, Ronaldo, Kaka and Ronaldinho - you don't know whether to sit up tight against them or defend deep and let them come at you, giving them little space to work in. Either way, they may beat you. I see them beating France but this could be a great game.

As for Italy v Ukraine, this is the only tie where there is an obvious hot favourite. Italy look like the tough and hard tournament team of football cliche; they keep winning and, with respect to Australia, they deserved to win that second-round game. Italy to win.