RUGBY ANALYST:But can he be, really? In doing what's best for the team, he risks smashing the confidence of Jonny Sexton, still a vital player

FORGET ABOUT the battle between Ronan O’Gara and Jonny Sexton or the battle of the scrums for the moment. The battle I am focusing on is between Jamie Heaslip and Sergio Parisse.

But first, let’s look at another one, between the coach and the player, and how it effects the individuals directly involved and the culture and dynamic of the team.

The team know who the best players are; they don’t need the coach to tell them. They also know who the weaker ones are. When that team is announced the group will automatically assess it on how it may affect their individual ambitions.

The key positions in rugby are tighthead and the sub tighthead, if they’re not right the team will feel it and worry. This concern can be debilitating, almost crippling, causing subconscious actions such as not passing the ball to a player in a better position if he’s only going to drop it. If your scrum is fine before the sub comes on, the team will immediately assess the negative impact.

Players tasked with securing kick-offs are another example. Traditionally, the ball arrives to the secondrow. Against England in the autumn we dropped our first kick-off. This affects confidence, hence fullbacks and wingers such as Shane Horgan moving to where the ball is more likely to land.

Clearly number 10 is key and every team, especially the forwards, wants rewards for their work. In other words, “I’ll get you into their half and you figure out what to do then but three points, at least, thank you very much.”

The difference between a try and a seven-pointer is not just two points. If you can’t guarantee the conversion or a hard fought for three points, the team will be affected.

Winning ‘the hearts and minds’ of the squad is your outhalf’s role. So how does Declan Kidney balance his own needs (continued employment through success) and his team’s (trophies) with the individual’s (selection)?

Take our outhalves; who to start and why? If I were Sexton after not making the cut I would expect Kidney to be honest. He might have said something like, “Jonny, you’re a brilliant player, my general, and crucial to our success but you are missing too many kicks at goal. So for this dog-fight I’m going to go with Ronan.”

“Fair enough Deccie,” says Jonny, “so you’re saying that if my percentages improve to over 80 per cent I’m back in?”

Deccie, feeling a little trapped, may respond with a “yes”. Sexton goes away happy knowing the key to the 10 jersey is his place-kicking. He knows he’s a brilliant kicker so it’s all about sorting that and all will be fine once more.

The team will understand as points are crucial for Sunday and O’Gara represents the best chance for that.

Then Deccie probably ambled over to Ronan: “You’re in, Ronan; you’re playing brilliantly and most importantly, you’re kicking your goals. Youre my general so lead us into the quarter-finals.”

“Thanks, Deccie,” says Ronan, “but just to be clear, I’m being picked because I’m your general, Im playing brilliantly and I’m kicking my goals?”

“That’s right,” replies Deccie. “Great, Deccie, thanks for your vote of confidence, I won’t let you down.”

So O’Gara kicks every goal on Sunday but the game remains tight so Deccie leaves him on the pitch to ensure every goal is converted. Ireland win and off to the quarters we go.

But what if the game is tight and Deccie affords Sexton the last 20 minutes to get his groove back? When that opportunity arrives and Sexton places the ball on the deck the team and supporters will all catch breath. If he misses it, the team will know they have to score tries to ensure victory or a bonus point. Heads may drop, panic may set in.

Will Kidney risk it for Sexton’s needs?

In the meantime, Sexton has found his groove. He confidently announces, “Deccie, I’m back, I’m over 80 per cent. I’m ready, put me back in for the quarter-finals.”

Now where has Deccie’s honesty brought him because he has based his decision on place-kicking and explained it as such? O’Gara has delivered and Sexton, having improved his averages, believes he has been lied to if he’s not immediately reinstated.

Can Deccie be truly honest? In doing what’s best for the team (and himself) he may smash the confidence of a crucial player. And what if O’Gara misses a tackle or two? What then, Deccie?

Back to the battle at number eight. Parisse is unbelievably talented and off a strong platform will force a massive match from Heaslip just to gain parity. The Italian scrum will look to dominate and will require a big match from referee Jonathan Kaplan.

George Clancy assumed the USA scrum was under pressure against Italy and refereed accordingly. It was, but not all the time. When under pressure, for forward momentum the Italians crab to the right, which must be refereed. To give Heaslip a chance, Cian Healy may have to sacrifice his running for the scrum. The Italians all scrummage (no slackers), especially on the opposition’s ball; five from home with an eight-man shove before ball entry: referee watch out, it can be too early.

Their lineout is slow and sloppy but patient with the initial set-up maul. Then it can take off. So an early hit may only slow it down but it does get Parisse off into open play, where all Italians are very comfortable.

Watch their props in space and their spin passing, no slouches. The key difference between Parisse and Heaslip is the Italian’s comfort in heavy traffic. Parisse will drop his shoulder and pump through where Heaslip will try to dance through it. Parisse is also their fulcrum and must be stopped.

The Italian midfield are porous and can be pummelled, as Paul Emerick achieved – Brian O’Driscoll to follow suit but ideally, Stephen Ferris.

They only commit one player to the breakdown, choosing to fan out and they can get lazy in following the flight of the ball. They are susceptible to a very late flat pass to a blind runner from behind the ruck.

The Irish counterattack should benefit also with less risk of a steal. They are very strong over the ball carrier but don’t follow through, allowing us to pull the bridger over our side, exposing the ball where our superior talents should take us home.

It’s a massive fixture for Ireland but my eyes will be firmly on Heaslip and Parisse.

liamtoland@yahoo.com