Deep Impact is a fascinating contender for an intriguing renewal of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp tomorrow. It may be a smaller field than usual but it's full of quality and the presence of the Japanese horse just adds an extra ingredient.
He comes to France with a huge reputation and a massive following in Japan, where he even has his own fan club. He has won 10 of his 11 races so far but it's difficult to weigh up his form.
What we can say is that Deep Impact is extremely versatile, he has won from a a mile-and-a-quarter to two miles, and looks to have a tremendous action. The only possible form line we can take is through a horse called Heart's Cry, who beat Deep Impact at Nakayama last December. He beat him half-a-length that day and it was a major shock.
Heart's Cry came over to Britain to run a tremendous race in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Ascot in July, being beaten half-a-length and the same by Hurricane Run and Electrocutionist in a tremendous finish.
That tends to suggest Deep Impact is right there with Hurricane Run, especially with the theory he wasn't at his best when beaten by Heart's Cry. It's just a question of whether you trust the form line.
Hurricane Run has been beaten a couple of times this season but he's a horse who definitely comes good on the big occasion. Just look at his record. He looked in trouble turning for home in the King George in July but really picked up for Christophe Soumillon in the closing stages and being reunited with Kieren Fallon here won't do him any harm at all.
Shirocco came out on top in a very falsely-run Prix Foy with Hurricane Run second and Pride third. It appeared that day that all three were getting sighters in for the Arc and it proved nothing.
Shirocco finished fourth behind Hurricane Run in the Arc last year but endured an interrupted preparation that time and comes into this race on the back of a clearer run.
Pride picks up very well in the closing stages and has a great turn of foot but was only seventh in the race last year.
The worry is that all the form suggests there is precious little between the big three French hopes and it could just be that the Japanese horse is a level above them. Of the three from the Prix Foy, Hurricane Run, owing to his ability to perform on the big occasions looks to have the edge.
One worry going into the race is a lack of pace. A falsely-run race can see contests develop into a sprint. Who will that suit? It's hard to say. Hurricane Run has an excellent turn of foot but can hit a flat spot as we saw at Ascot. The lack of pace makes this more of a race to watch and enjoy rather than be confident of the outcome.
Rail Link looked a very likeable horse when winning the Prix Niel the other day. The form has been boosted since with runner-up Youmzain going on to win in Germany. Dragon Dancer, second in the Epsom Derby, was back in fourth and Rail Link found plenty close home to win going away. He had a bit in hand. Could his turn of foot be the key in a slowly-run race? He certainly looks up to Arc standard.
Sixties Icon has been supplemented but of all the horses in the race, he is going to be most inconvenienced by it being run at a crawl. He showed the stamina to win over a mile-and-three-quarters in the St Leger where he was in a different league to the others. It appears the right decision to pay the money down and come here too.
A strongly-run race would suit him better, though, but if there is cut in the ground it would be no surprise to see him go well. He is thriving at present.
All things considered, it may be best to rely on Deep Impact. The Japanese horses have proved the standard of racing in their country is very high on their forays into Europe and this colt is rated the best horse that has ever turned out here.
