If the Wallabies exit at the quarter-finals in a tournament in New Zealand, the hostility on their return does not bear contemplating, writes MATT WILLIAMS

IN THE Southern Hemisphere there is the scent of blood in the air and the lesser animals are circling in the hope of an unexpected prize. They’re not sharks or lions but Springboks and Wallabies; it’s because New Zealand are bleeding.

The unexpected opportunity for Australia and South Africa has arisen from Dan Carter’s heartbreak. Once again at a rugby World Cup, New Zealand are in trouble. From the black team the talk is tough. Colin Slade, Carter’s replacement is getting his coaches and fellow players’ public support.

However, analysis of Slade’s performances will lay bare the fact he would not make the starting line-ups in any of the other quarter-final teams, including Argentina. Late at night, in moments of honesty, the Kiwis might think: “Oh no, not again. Slade is a liability.”

The rugby gods are a fickle lot. They must all have been former props because they have a wicked sense of humour. A month ago who would have foreseen Australia and South Africa eyeing each other at quarter-final time, realising victory will see New Zealand thrust before them in a semi-final?

However, despite that onerous remit both teams will feel positive about their chances of winning. A win over New Zealand in their citadel on their biggest day in the last 25 years: now that is a once-in-a lifetime chance.

In keeping with all great adventures the downside of opportunity is steep. Defeat will not be accepted by the rugby public in either Australia or South Africa. The fallout for the losers will be catastrophic. Australians are a fickle lot when it comes to losing in sport. The public has been raised on a diet of international sporting success for more than a century.

Across almost every sport, Australians have conquered the world: from the Tour de France champion Cadel Evans, to the current world champion netball team, to surfing world champions, winning is the only gig in town. When the barbie is fired up and the beers are in hand, the talk goes to sport and you don’t want your name linked with losing.

Australians have won swathes of gold medals at every Olympic Games, except one. The 1976 Montreal Olympics produced only a bronze medal; Steve Holland in the men’s 1,500m swimming. What made things worse was New Zealand won a gold men’s eights in rowing. Australia’s response was to spend millions of dollars and create the Australian Institute of Sport.

This was to ensure future gold medals and world champions, and to guarantee that those “bloody New Zealanders” (BNZ) never again beat us at anything.

The then federal minster of sport, when under fire in parliament in reference to New Zealand winning a gold medal, famously stated: “You have to remember it was rowing. New Zealanders excel at sitting down and going backwards.” That won him a laugh, but not re-election.

If the Wallabies exit at the quarter-finals in a tournament in New Zealand the hostility they will be subjected to on their return does not bare contemplating. They will be smashed by a media that is mostly anti-rugby and ill-informed.

You only have to consider the bigoted manner in which Ireland’s victory over the Wallabies was treated to find evidence of its ignorance. The wave of pressure to remove Robbie Deans for Ewan McKenzie will become a tsunami.

The media have the tools to create the perception that losing the match is the result of incompetence. Once that occurs the coach becomes the story and he is then in the hands of the chief executive and his board. If the perceived affront is grave enough then ego can often drive an executive into sacrificing the coach on the altar of public opinion.

If a competent evaluation of the coach is conducted he will stay. Deans is an excellent coach. I have never seen a competent evaluation of a coach from an Australian board. For any coach that is not a pleasant place to be, for a New Zealand coach in Australia, it is stressful in the extreme.

Deans has done a fabulous job with this young team. Australian rugby was in disarray three years ago. He has dragged it forward. This World Cup was never for this team because of their youth and inexperience but 2015 will be.

As I have said before in this column, in professional sport, “pioneers get shot and the settlers get the gold”. McKenzie got the gold with the Queensland Reds after Eddie Jones did the pioneering and blooded Quade Cooper, Will Genia and co. McKenzie may very well get the gold again after Deans has pioneered this young Wallaby side.

Australians love winning. The Reds won the Super 15; enter Mr McKenzie. That would be truly ironic as he was wrongly dismissed from the Waratahs after not winning the Super rugby final a few years ago.

If the “Boks” lose the majority of the players and all of the coaching staff will be replaced. The political aspect of African sport is there for all to see. The ANC provided the basis for Peter de Villiers’s appointment. How a failure will be dealt with will be fascinating. After the ANC’s relentless intrusion into coach appointments and player selection in rugby, defeat for the Boks will be put at arm’s length by the ANC: no photos with Jacob Zuma.

In professional sport the stakes are always high. At the World Cup, the stakes are magnified. For those involved the final scoreboard will not tell the full story. Rugby is often described as a gladiatorial sport. To the victor the spoils: to the loser, oblivion.