Denman not a dead cert

FESTIVAL PREVIEW: DENMAN IS sure to start a red-hot favourite to land the Day One feature of Liverpool’s 2009 festival, the …

FESTIVAL PREVIEW:DENMAN IS sure to start a red-hot favourite to land the Day One feature of Liverpool's 2009 festival, the Totesport Bowl, but treating this race as some sort of automatic entitlement for last month's Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up could be a dangerous assumption.

It’s only 12 months since the mighty Kauto Star came here on the back of finishing second to Denman at Cheltenham and got touched off on the line at odds of 4 to 7 by Our Vic.

The latter is back for another crack at the €175,000 Grade Two, along with 2007 winner Exotic Dancer, who did finish runner-up in the Gold Cup before managing to win here at Aintree.

The question for many heavyweight punters going into today will be how much value there is in Denman now. That Paul Nicholls runs him here at all will be enough for many. Britain’s champion trainer appeared hesitant about Liverpool immediately after that fine effort behind Kauto Star, when Nicholls’ entire team seemed as pleased about Denman’s return to form as the winner’s performance. But the 2008 Gold Cup hero is reported to be in fine fettle and ready for a quick reappearance.

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On the figures that should make him very hard to beat, but it might not be that straightforward.

For one thing, Aintree is a very different beast to galloping tracks like Cheltenham or Newbury, with tight turns around the completely flat Mildmay course. Watering has already begun with quick ground guaranteed.

Neither factor is necessarily in Denman’s favour, nor is the reality of some hefty weight concessions, including 10lb to his stable companion Star De Mohaison.

With Sam Thomas kept on Denman, Ruby Walsh is on the former course Grade One winner, who should relish the conditions. All of which will probably count for nothing if Denman is at his Gold Cup-winning best. But he will start plenty short enough on the back of such an assumption.

Those looking for a working man’s alternative in terms of value could do worse than Air Force One, a Punchestown festival Grade One winner who will love the ground and who didn’t act around Cheltenham in the Gold Cup. He is also weighted to reverse Hennessy form with Madison Du Berlais and could go well at a big price for his Kildare owner, Brian Walsh, whose Silver Birch will attempt to emulate his 2007 National victory on Saturday.

Up to 11 Irish-trained runners are expected to be declared for the National today’s, which is one more than the entire Irish representation at Aintree this afternoon. Seven of them take part in the first race over the big fences, the Foxhunters, with Agus A Vic looking to hold very good claims for a major double for jockey Jamie Codd.

He rode Character Building to an exciting Kim Muir success at Cheltenham, and Agus A Vic at his best has outstanding claims for this. Pat Martin’s runner, one of the leading hunters in Ireland, can put in a mistake every so often, which would be very costly here. A clear round, though, should make him a major player.

Another Irish runner with claims today could be Charlie Swan’s Valain in the Grade Three Red Rum Handicap Chase. The JP McManus-owned horse could finish only seventh in the Grand Annual behind Oh Crick, but should relish much quicker ground conditions now.

The same comment should apply to Starluck in the Grade One Juvenile Hurdle, and Alan Fleming’s runner may also be better around this course than Cheltenham, where he was almost seven lengths behind Walkon in the Triumph Hurdle.

Big Buck’s received a vintage Ruby Walsh ride to land the World Hurdle at Cheltenham and will be a warm favourite to follow up in the festival opener.

He is clearly far from a straight-forward ride, and there is also the evidence that this will be the fastest ground he has raced on. In the circumstances, the 8lb he has to concede to the course specialist Mighty Man could be significant.

Planet Of Sound was an unlucky third in the Arkle at Cheltenham. but Chapoturgeon was such an impressive festival winner of the Jewson that he is very hard to oppose.

  • Graham Lee has been given the green light to return to the saddle at Aintree today following his fall at Wetherby on Tuesday.
Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor is the racing correspondent of The Irish Times. He also writes the Tipping Point column