European Cup: Leinster v Edinburgh, Donnybrook, 5.35 On TV: Sky Sports 1: The fickle nature of fate is graphically illustrated by the calf problem that shunts Leinster captain Brian O'Driscoll to the sideline and out of this evening's Heineken European Cup clash where, following last night's win for Agen over Gloucester, a win will put the home team through to the quarter-finals. All week the focus has been on Edinburgh's depleted resources, injury denying them a couple of Scottish internationals in scrumhalf Mike Blair and physically imposing centre Rob Dewey.
The latter in particular has proved a handful, literally, for Leinster in recent matches including scoring the Scottish side's only try when the sides met at Murrayfield earlier in the tournament. In terms of impact, though, O'Driscoll's absence resonates at a higher pitch. He is more than simply the captain or the team's leading try scorer in the tournament. It is his presence alongside Gordon D'Arcy and Felipe Contepomi, a sublime three-pronged attacking unit that causes opposition coaches to fret over their defensive philosophies. There's no point in closing one down because the others invariably take up the baton and conduct Leinster's attacking gambits with a brio and flair that eschews the orthodox.
In last weekend's Magners Celtic League victory over the Ospreys, D'Arcy shredded the defensive line time and again, while O'Driscoll intelligently trailed in his midfield partner's slipstream before arriving on his shoulder to claim a brace of tries.
This evening Kieran Lewis will deputise in the Leinster number 13 jersey, a player of considerable ability. The crux for the Ireland A international is to back his talent with belief. A consummate team player he needs to operate with a little more swagger; demand the ball and back his instincts.
Shane Horgan's return and the presence of Denis Hickie on the other wing underline the potency of the three-quarter line while Rob Kearney's rehabilitation speaks volumes for his character. Leinster assistant and backs' coach David Knox will look to come up with some clever variations to stretch Edinburgh.
He'll know that D'Arcy and Contepomi will be tracked assiduously and that others may benefit accordingly. Leinster's pack excelled in the demanding Stade Armandie and was largely responsible for the second victory over Agen.
They face a different assignment this evening. The Edinburgh forwards are more athletic and less one dimensional than their Agen counterparts, the French eight favouring brute force over more cerebral ground gaining measures. The Scottish side impose a touchline-to-touchline philosophy, looking to put width on the game whenever possible but are shrewd enough to take a more direct approach if they spot mismatches closer in.
Edinburgh do not give the ball back easily, content to work their way through multiple phases, even if there is little territory gained.
Conversely, and likely given the presence of Duncan Hodge, they may opt to punt long and try and put the squeeze on the Leinster lineout.
This is a facet of the game in which the home side has improved recently, hooker Bernard Jackman's increased game time sharpening his accuracy. The Clontarf man has been a standout performer and alongside Stan Wright and Will Green forms a mobile and athletic frontrow. Malcolm O'Kelly is another player in form and alongside Trevor Hogan and an outstanding backrow should enjoy exploding a few more preconceptions about Leinster forward play.
Contepomi - captain for the day - was less encumbered by his knee injury against the Ospreys, moving with greater fluency and displaying the skills that make him one of the world's best outhalves. His 100 per cent place-kicking return was a timely reminder of his prowess in this aspect of the game while his partnership with the increasingly influential Chris Whitaker looks more attuned.
Leinster coach Michael Cheika will preach the absolute necessity of a disciplined display, an Achilles heel at Murrayfield. That day Leinster outscored their hosts by three tries to one but conceded far too many penalties, Joel Jutge coming down 19-6 in the Scottish side's favour.
Edinburgh have some excellent players of their own from the back three of Hugo Southwell, Chris Paterson and joint leading try scorer Ben Cairns to the experienced Scott Murray, flanker Alasdair Strokosch and Simon Taylor.
The Scottish side may have nothing to play for with regard to the European tournament but it is unlikely to compromise the integrity of the challenge they bring to Donnybrook. Leinster will need to replicate the same intensity and cutting edge that they have displayed for most of December and January. History will underline the folly of underperforming against this evening's opponents who have never lost to Leinster in the competition. It can't be about revenge. It has to centre on producing a performance that earns four points and a victory.
LEINSTER:R Kearney; S Horgan, K Lewis, G D'Arcy, D Hickie; F Contepomi (capt), C Whitaker; S Wright, B Jackman, W Green; T Hogan, M O'Kelly; S Keogh, K Gleeson, J Heaslip. Replacements: H Vermaas, R Corrigan, O Finegan, C Jowitt, G Easterby, C Warner, L Fitzgerald.
EDINBURGH:H Southwell; C Paterson, M di Rollo, M Dey, B Cairns; D Hodge, J Senio; A Jacobsen, S Lawrie, A Dickinson; F Pringle, S Murray (capt); A Strokosch, A MacDonald, S Taylor. Replacements: A Kelly, D Hall, D Hewett, S Turnbull, D Callam, P Godman, A Easson.
Referee:D Pearson (England).
Leading points scorers:Leinster - Felipe Contepomi 31. Edinburgh - C Paterson 28.
Leading try scorers:Leinster - Brian O'Driscoll 3. Edinburgh - Hugo Southwell, Ben Cairns 2 each.
Verdict:Leinster to win.
