RUGBY ANALYST:EVERY TEAM has a centre of gravity (COG) normally manifest in a player, a unit or a style. Crucial planning before any match is to assess the opposition's. That, if neutralised, will massively reduce their ability. For instance the Irish economy's COG was the property boom. End it, and you end the Celtic Tiger. Knowing that, it was crucial to protect it at all costs; we didn't!
Ulster travel to Thomond Park this Sunday and will be searching for Munster’s COG. Clearly having lost to Leinster last week there exists an opportunity in doing this. The key question; do Ulster have the ability to unhinge Munster’s COG?
“Home intensity” has long been the hallmark of Munster. Ulster must neutralise it or match it. Munster’s ridiculously long injury list has been brilliantly minimised by Tony McGahan and staff all season but they still remain shorn of top-class players. Last week was sloppy (50 per cent lineout success) with no consistent attack and a far lower level of intensity than expected but their defence was immense. The lineout will improve, so too the attack and add greater intensity. Key to Munster will be scrumhalf Conor Murray. He is best placed to maximise his forwards and free Ronan O’Gara in what he does best.
Ulster’s greatest challenge for Sunday is to maintain the variety of their game in the Limerick environment. Under pressure it does lead to high error counts that can be costly – as Aironi almost managed but couldn’t. When it works it’s potent. Off right-hand side scrums they will bring Andrew Trimble in field to play, but with options. He’ll initially run a decoy fixing the Munster backrow. Then he’ll receive the ball coming open, with the Ulster midfield running a hard decoy line back at the Munster scrum fixing O’Gara and the backrow. As this happens Trimble will find Ian Humphries who’ll get it into the wide channels for Darren Cave, Stefan Terblanche and Craig Gilroy to target.
Failing that, Trimble, using his bulk, will get to the gain line in an old-fashioned carry. Ulster do like to get to the gain line and fast. Watch where Stephen Ferris stands in the lineout and if it’s at the very tail then Ulster will go around the front targeting the tram tracks. They go to short off-the-top lineouts quite often to get hard-running traffic in midfield off a very flat Ruan Pienaar pass where Ferris is most likely the target. But to his eternal credit Ferris has added a very subtle offload to his game; conscious of the opposition targeting him he’s aware others can reap the benefits.
Consequently watch out for the very potent and creative Ulster 10, 12 and 13. They run great lines and are comfortable in traffic and on the gain line. More importantly their team-mates feed off their lines, especially their blindside wingers who work exceptionally hard. Paddy Wallace is playing his best rugby and Darren Cave is the beneficiary. Much positivity happens through Humphries so no prizes for guessing Munster’s attitude to him. Ulster do have a wealth of kicking talent which will exercise Munster fullback Felix Jones especially when they split Humphries and Wallace at scrum time. Both are brilliant runners with ball and superb kickers out of hand; interesting day for Jones.
Defence, as always, ensures success. Wallace is their defensive leader, dictating the speed of the line. For a relatively small man he is brave, abrasive and a technically sound defender. The man inside him, Humphries, is not. The temptation for Munster is run out over him time and again which will provide fruit. But his Ulster team-mates are wise to this and will scramble back to support him, minimising the leak. The trick is to get Humphries slightly wide off the breakdown and in a disciplined organised defensive line.
Munster then need to carry to Humphries while providing a very late switch on Wallace’s channel (fixing him) with the switch running hard at Humphries’ outside shoulder. The key to exposing Humphries defensively is to fix Wallace in his channel maintaining the gap however small between them. That player will break the Humphries’ tackle but, as it is an organised defence, will make huge yards.
There are fundamental imbalances between their styles. Munster need to get their lineout well above the 50 per cent from last week. From it they can launch and dictate the pace through O’Gara. But the points of attack are different. There is a cause and effect to this imbalance. Munster’s one-up carries off the fringes will afford Chris Henry and co a shot at the turnover. This, in turn, forces French referee Romain Poite into ruling on the breakdown and penalties will evolve, which is not what Munster want.
Ulster are far more committed to a wider, flatter multi-phase ball from Pienaar. His forwards stand further out and when they don’t, they act as a middle man, shipping the ball immediately to a hard-running outside forward. When Pienaar finds Humphries it’ll be wide also, affording his midfield more back-on-back attack with the Ulster blindside wingers very prominent.
Munster’s solution to this and Ulster’s great test will be the numbers needed to secure that breakdown ball. Aironi were unable to trouble Ulster at this but Munster will and the result will be fascinating. Johann Muller, Ulster’s captain is a lovely player and competent in his job but he lacks the physicality to drive Ulster forward. Along with Ferris, Dan Tuohy is crucial to Ulster’s trench warfare. Ulster are vulnerable in kick-off receptions where targeting either Muller or Pedrie Wannenburg’s slot will provide turnovers.
When they do field, Ulster tend to go open with an immediate rewind through Humphries whose instinct is to probe for a run but elect to kick.
Can Ulster target Munster’s COG? Pienaar remains the most important key to Ulster’s success. Cool, calm and collected in the white-hot heat of Thomond Park is not an easy emotion. Pienaar has ice in his veins. He can also match O’Gara goal for goal. Defensively, unless there’s a tight blindside, he stands in the neutral position. In attack he runs old-fashioned number seven lines and gets onto buckets of offloads as a result. As soon as he passes he runs aggressively to where the ball may end up and often times goes ahead of the attack, expecting a breakthrough and is there to add more yards. Disrupt him and Munster disrupt Ulster’s COG that extends to 10, 12 and 13.
There are many intriguing battles to look forward to on Sunday but the battle of the secondrows will be most telling. Munster are by far the powerbrokers here. Paul O’Connell ensures the intensity and accuracy stays white hot and Donnacha Ryan (team selection depending) adds those trademark clear-out and carries where his real value is his power/athleticism over those crucial five metres. Advantage Munster!
As for Cardiff Blues they will be unable to flick the switch of intensity and quality game plan to trouble Leinster. Leinster proved last weekend that they remain capable of controlling a very intense environment while sticking to their game plan. In other words 23 hard-working, class players will beat a handful anytime.
PS: With both Munster and Ulster coaches exiting this season for very different reasons I wonder how we should (history) judge the winner and loser on Sunday.
