Gerry Thornley On Rugby

Twickenham or the Millennium Stadium, here we come? It may seem a decidedly unpalatable thought but, in the greater schemes of things, the prospect of the Irish rugby team having to temporarily abandon Lansdowne Road might actually be a sign of longer-term progress.

It is expected that the Minister for Sport, John O'Donoghue, will present proposals for a new/rebuilt stadium for rugby and football to Cabinet. Praise be, but a decision of sorts might even be made, although that will only be the start of the problems in many respects.

Even if it remains the preferred option of leading Fianna Fáil figures, and even with JP McManus's donation of €63.5 million (currently sitting in a Pictet & Cie bank account in Switzerland), building a 65,000-seater stadium on a greenfield site in Abbotstown looks less of a viable option now than ever, given the additional, incomparable costs and logistics difficulties of building infrastructure for the venture.

Given its lesser cost, the increased political opposition to Abbotstown amongst the junior Government partners and elsewhere, and in keeping with worldwide trends moving back toward downtown stadiums, the likelier option remains a scaled-down, 50,000-seater Lansdowne Road.

However, no less than the FAI, it is surely time for the IRFU to look at contingency plans for using alternative venues outside of Lansdowne Road, whether the Government sanction its more modest redevelopment, and whenever that may or may not happen.

Philip Browne's counterpart, FAI chief executive Fran Rooney, has sought to force the Government's hand and perhaps provoke a modicum of embarrassment within Government ranks by speaking aloud of the need for the FAI to seek an alternative venue, be it Glasgow, Manchester or wherever.

"Playing our matches away from home is a serious option for us now," he states, as he is compelled to do.

Given near identical circumstances, it seems only reasonable that the IRFU should do the same. For sure, privately they must cherish the notion of remaining in Ireland even when or if Lansdowne Road is being reconstructed, and that can only mean Croke Park.

The point is made that they have never formally approached the GAA or publicly stated such a desire, but how could they? It would invariably be seen as an insensitive attempt to force the GAA's hand and incur the wrath of the GAA's rank and file even more.

As things stand, there seems an inevitable hardening of resolve against opening Croke Park's gates, primarily because the GAA feel they are being forced into a corner. Any public utterances by Browne or anyone else in the IRFU would only hem them in even more.

Indeed, it is partly because of their sensitivity to the GAA's position that, privately, the IRFU are probably hopeful that they have not angered the GAA's rank and file as much as the FAI and the soccer community have done - as outlined in these pages yesterday by Tom Humphries.

By saying nowt and sitting on their hands, the IRFU might conceivably be viewed differently than their soccer counterparts.

But in so many ways, not least in their joint Lansdowne Road venture, the two sports are inextricably linked and the likelihood must be that the GAA Congress (or Central Council) will vote to keep Croke Park's gates closed for the time being, as is their prerogative. The IRFU ought to expect this really, and start planning accordingly.

No less than Croke Park's capacity of 79,500 (rising to 83,000), the potential revenue intake from renting and hosting games at Twickenham (80,000 and rising) or the Millennium Stadium (65,000), would probably generate even bigger profit margins for the IRFU than continuing at Lansdowne Road's crumbling edifice. We have already witnessed the huge following Munster attract in European Cup finals at Twickenham and Cardiff's Millennium Stadium.

It's been done before, with Wales moving their home games to Wembley for two years while the Millennium Stadium was being built for the 1999 World Cup, and the Welsh effectively made Wembley a little corner of Wales.

As the interest repayments on the Millennium Stadium continue to hang over the Welsh Rugby Union like the Sword of Damocles, one imagines they would be only too willing to negotiate a rental arrangement with the IRFU.

Either way, no matter how long the Government may prevaricate over the stadium issue, or how many planning objections or restrictions there will inevitably be (on working time permitted day to day, the closure of the DART line, etc.), or then the thorny issue of the Government, the IRFU and the FAI actually agreeing on the complex logistics of any joint venture, keeping Lansdowne Road as a viable home for international sports while it is being redeveloped doesn't seem remotely practical.

Neither the West Stand or East Stand could be rebuilt in between Six Nations campaigns, and unlike Croke Park, where the capacity was retained at around the 60,000 mark throughout the staggered redevelopment of the Cusack and Hogan Stands, the reduction in Lansdowne Road's capacity would be too big a financial hit to take.

In the midst of this entire, rather pathetic saga, Ireland were supposedly going to partially host both the 2007 Rugby World Cup and football's 2008 European Championship. No less than the latter however, the IRFU's hand may be forced with regard to 2007.

Even the most optimistic forecasts for a redeveloped Lansdowne Road are 2008 (seeing will be believing), and for the old ground to be redeveloped in time for the next World Cup would mean something (anything) being built in this country with unprecedented haste.

And one doesn't have to be a soothsayer to envisage lengthy planning procedures and objections from local residents with regard to the reconstruction of a stadium in a built up section of Dublin 4.

The degree to which all of this may or may not embarrass the Government or the country at large is a moot point, but in the long run, just as with the Republic of Ireland football team, the prospect of the Irish rugby team hosting home games outside of Ireland seems probable.

gthornley@irish-times.ie