FOCUS ON ITALY: Paddy Agnew argues that despite all the negative vibes about Italy, they will be a hard nut to crack.
SO THEN, Italian football is in a state of irreversible decline and fall, is it? At the end of a Champions League season marked by the dominance of the English Premier League and by the whitewash of Italian clubs, it would seem there are many - at least in the Anglo-Saxon world - ready to write off Italy's prospects at Euro 2008.
For example, when the BBC's football site recently asked 14 of its "experts" to name the winner of Euro 2008, eight went for Germany, five for Spain and one for Portugal. Curiously, nobody picked the reigning World champions.
Nor was that particular straw poll atypical. There are many who are simply not impressed by Italy and perhaps for four obvious reasons. Firstly, they suggest, Italy won the World Cup in Germany two years ago but they did so thanks only to a highly favourable draw and to the fact that arguably the best team in the tournament, Argentina, "blew it" in their quarter-final clash with Germany.
Secondly, say the Italy-bashers, look at their qualifying group run. Did they not start off with a home draw to little Lithuania followed by a 3-1 trouncing by France, in a re-run of the Berlin final?
Thirdly, Italy find themselves in arguably the toughest first-round group of all at Euro 2008, Group C, along with France, The Netherlands and Romania.
Finally, only a truly great side can follow up a World Cup triumph with a European title and Italy are simply not such a side.
By the end of June, that harsh analysis may need reassessment. It is true Italy made the best of their draw to win in Germany and it is also true they made a lamentable start to their Euro 2008 qualifying group. Yet, everything that has happened since that 3-1 defeat by France suggests the Italians have every right to start these finals as one of the favourites.
It might seem absurd to suggest that coach Roberto Donadoni has done exceptionally well to qualify this team for Euro 2008. Yet, when he took over from Marcello Lippi after the World Cup, his task was anything but straightforward.
For a start, there was the totally inevitable post-World Cup sense of anti-climax. Players who were physically and emotionally drained by their experiences in Germany took some time to recover their best form. Hence, those early hiccups against Lithuania and France.
Just as Donadoni was sheltering from the inevitable onslaught of initial harsh criticism, he also found himself dealing with another major problem. In his first months in charge, two of Italy's most talented players of the last decade, defender Alessandro Nesta and Roma talisman Francesco Totti, both retired from international football.
Another problem on Donadoni's road to Vienna was perhaps less obvious. Italy might have won the World Cup and AC Milan might well have won last year's Champions League, but off the field Italian football continues to have serious problems.
The death of police inspector Filippo Raciti at the Catania-Palermo derby in February 2007 and the deaths this season of Lazio fan Gabriele Sandri and Parma fan Matteo Bagnaresi, not to mention the full-scale Rome riot provoked by Sandri's death, were just the most obvious reminders of the underlying malaise afflicting the Italian game.
Uefa's decision last spring not to award Italy the 2012 European Championship looked to many like a resounding vote of no-confidence in Italian football.
On top of all that, the infamous "Calciopoli" match-fixing scandal of 2006 had left a bitter taste with many Italian fans.
In such a context of doubt, Donadoni did exceptionally well to concentrate on his job and put together an excellent team.
For the point is that, since that 3-1 defeat by France in Paris in September 2006, Italy have gone from strength to strength, winning nine and drawing one of their subsequent 10 qualifiers. Donadoni took the World Cup module that had been handed to him - Buffon in goal, Cannavaro (until he got injured this week) in central defence, Pirlo as playmaker and Toni as the central striker - and reshaped it to his own liking.
Roma midfielder Daniele De Rossi has become an ever more important partner to Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso in midfield. New front men Antonio Di Natale and Fabio Quagliarella both responded to their call-ups by scoring vital goals, while experienced defender Christian Panucci, recalled to tighten the defensive hatch, crowned his recall by scoring the winner in the decisive qualifier against Scotland last October.
As for that tough Group C draw, even that could yet work to Italy's advantage.
In the past, Italy have often started badly in major tournaments (remember Ireland's group at the 1994 World Cup finals?) when faced with theoretically less "difficult" opponents.
For their opening game against the Netherlands in Bern, there will be no question of Italy getting it wrong through over-confidence. Such opponents concentrate the mind, greatly.
Clearly, Italy's preparations have suffered a serious blow with the loss of Fabio Cannavaro, who was injured in the team's first training session in Vienna this week. Cannavaro's vision, timing and reading of the game and above all his "presence" will be badly missed but his likely replacement, Andrea Barzagli, is a reliable and experienced player.
In conclusion, we suspect Italy will prove a hard nut to crack. Roberto Donadoni's side will certainly not play "champagne" football but it is a solid, tough, highly organised and highly experienced unit.
Win or lose, this Italy is likely to leave the Euro 2008 field with its head held high.
