CRICKET ASHES SERIES: THIS REALLY is a massive game of cricket. Win it, and England have the Ashes job done with the prospect of a dominance not seen since the Australian cricketing austerity times of the late '70s.
A draw even, and Australia would need to come back remarkably strongly in the final two Tests, knowing Sydney is the ground that would favour England’s swing and seam above all the others.
An Australian win, though, would throw a panther among the black swans in the park: MCG, all to play for, teams level, Australia in the ascendant. Now that would be a challenge.
Before the series started, the consensus was the sides were well matched, and that things would be decided by one team seizing the critical moments. This would be like fencers looking for an opening and then striking for a hit. In Brisbane, Australia had England on the run for three days but could not finish the job, since when they have not had a look-in.
Adelaide could not have been more perfect had Andy Flower written his gameplan on a piece of paper, posted it to Father Christmas and got it in his stocking. He craves improvement on that only in terms of consistency, citing in particular the manner in which his batsmen were able to repeat the heroics in successive matches.
But there has been a break in Melbourne since then, as if to draw a line under the first part of the series, and the fear is that it will be Australia, who as a canvased boxer saved by the bell has had time to recover senses and come out for the next round, who will gain most from the interim period.
England have had things to ponder. The team dynamic has changed: Stuart Broad will be in a commentary box rather than on the field; Jimmy Anderson has flown home and back again in the space of 48 hours which means even with the flat-bed comfort and sleeping pills, he will need a rapid recovery; and the families are in town now, the laddish togetherness that has bound them through the first part of the tour a transient thing from here on in.
Flower’s insistence on keeping partners out of the way until now was carefully thought out, debated, and disagreed with in some quarters, but has served them well. Now his work will be to ensure the relief that comes with reuniting families does not in itself prove a distraction and a hindrance.
The team are on the threshold of greatness in the English pantheon and cannot be allowed to blow it away in familial joy.
The pitch will hold the key. This, as has been stressed many times, is not the Waca of old. The accolade of the fastest, bounciest pitch in the world has passed to Old Trafford in recent years. Instead, not helped by commercial imperatives that see no future in games that last three days rather than five, the pitches have been restrained. Yesterday, 48 hours before the game starts, this wicket, on a redeveloped part of the square and used only twice before, including the West Indies Test last year, was far from finished, a light green strip set in a dark green square. The mower will surely be out before tomorrow, although the blades will not be set too low, and a further day under 30-degree heat will harden it up more than it already is. The colour promises more than it delivers. It will crack but Waca cracks have solid edges and do not lead to erratic behaviour: it will last and even get better. Once the new ball goes, there is some hard graft in store for the bowlers.
It will lead to confusion in the ranks. The Australians are feigning organisation (Mitchell Johnson was omitted from the Adelaide Test as part of a rotation policy apparently, which would be fine had he not been replaced by an overweight, unfit bowler blowing out of his backside by the end) but seem to have anything but. Calls for all their four pace bowlers to play at the expense of the prospective debutant Michael Beer, surely are far-fetched: they have a back-up fourth seamer in Shane Watson, while the leg-spin of Steve Smith is jaunty but naive and was savaged by Ian Bell in Hobart. Instead they will probably play a young spinner, who conceded runs at about five an over when playing against England here earlier in the tour and, having watched the experience of Xavier Doherty, would require a temperament approaching absolute zero if he is not to have his heart in his mouth when he bowls his first over.
Of Johnson there is little to add to the clamour that has filled the papers here, most of it condemnatory towards the idea that he can simply bring a damaged game straight into a match without trying out in a game first.
A deal of biomechanical twaddle has been spoken about his problems but the last thing a fast bowler wants, intelligent or otherwise, is to have thoughts in his head other than those directed exclusively towards creating havoc at the other end: stand tall, arm up, hips clear, follow through. With a blank canvas he can be devastating, but head filled inappropriately and you have free runs.
In the England camp, there seems to be a leaning away from including Tim Bresnan in favour of Chris Tremlett although that means that one of Anderson, Steve Finn and he would have to open the bowling into the wind – a strong wind at times – and hold that end while Graeme Swann is not doing so. Tremlett’s bounce and control are his greatest assets, but he needs to be clear that the length he must bowl is still the one which hits the top of off-stump. Of all the grounds, this is still the one that best feeds the Australian strengths square of the wicket, as bowlers can get excited by seeing the ball hit the gloves high and pitch too short.
This will not be another Adelaide. Australia, disarray or not, will come back strongly. But there is resilience now in the England team. A personal view is that far from flagging, Anderson will double his effort and prosper, and bowl England to victory and the Ashes.
Guardian Service
