England v NZ Twickenham, 2.30Whatever the odds, the All Blacks never look like losers. England are well prepared and talented but this is a real test.
An exhibition in honour of rugby's fallen war heroes is being held at Twickenham's museum and there was a risk of further casualties yesterday among former All Blacks who study bookmakers' odds. England are being quoted at only 2 to 1 to record a clean sweep in this autumn's three-match series against the Southern Hemisphere sides, but those who insist New Zealand will lie down meekly today are slaves to fantasy.
For reasons derived partly from history and partly from modern-day professional etiquette, no All Black side would dream of treating defeat as a foregone conclusion and coach John Mitchell's expression when asked if his team might be philosophical in defeat this weekend was a picture.
Today's most pressing question, then, is how England will respond to the challenge of securing their first win over New Zealand since 1993 and only their fifth since 1905. Rather like Brazil in soccer, a run-of-the-mill victory over the All Blacks does not exist, as Clive Woodward agreed yesterday.
"I enjoy these games far more than the Six Nations, to be frank," said England's head coach. "I feel far more pressure playing Wales and Scotland than I do the All Blacks, Australia and South Africa because in these matches you're on a level playing field. I prefer that to going into every game as red-hot favourites because you don't learn as much."
Woodward has instead been exhorting his side to forget temporarily about next year's World Cup and concentrate on re-establishing the momentum that has yielded 15 successive English home wins since the 1999 World Cup.
It is Woodward's belief that, though "records are there to be beaten and destroyed", his squad has never been so well prepared, and a glance down the team sheet reveals enviable talent, from the strength and pace in the front five to the twinkling feet of Jason Robinson and debutant wing James Simpson-Daniel.
"England have improved a lot since the last time we faced the All Blacks," confirmed Woodward, reflecting on the progress made since Mitchell, once his assistant coach, returned to New Zealand. "I think we've all matured. When I first coached against the All Blacks in 1997, myself and John were very new to the job. Now the nerves have been totally supplanted by anticipation and excitement. We're looking forward to it and that rubs off on the team. If you get picked you've got to take a responsibility to go out and play and not hide. We don't intend to hide."
New Zealand, in contrast, seem to have adapted the text of Little Red Riding Hood, quite happy for their hosts to overlook the sharp teeth beneath this supposedly under-strength All Black exterior. There are five new caps but something is amiss when we are invited to start feeling sorry for Jonah Lomu, supposedly fighting for his career and grimly silent all week; to listen to his team-mates, on the other hand, is to be reminded no All Black side ever wallows in self-pity.
Lomu's fellow wing Doug Howlett puts it perfectly.
"For every one of us there are 400 guys who'd love to be in our place. Everybody's watching, so you give it everything. Our country's rugby heritage is at stake every time the All Blacks run out."
Ticking away beneath it all, of course, is the in-built confidence of every New Zealander that England, historically, are not fit to lace their Cotton Oxfords. The past, though, is not so much a guide as a polite reminder to today's players. No one disputes the footballing wit of Carlos Spencer or the Waikato breakaway Marty Holah and, inevitably, Lomu will need to be watched, but England also have a wonderful chance to lay a bogey to rest. Woodward is also keen that today's occasion sends a different message to the rugby world than the one preached by Josh Kronfeld and Andrew Mehrtens, who have suggested England often talk a better game than they play.
Kronfeld, however, is now experiencing doubts about his own country's forwards. "If it's a poor day weather-wise the English forwards will come into play and we will struggle. We will know in the first 10 or 15 minutes if we can win."
A home victory by nine points is more likely.
ENGLAND: J Robinson (Sale Sharks); J Simpson-Daniel (Gloucester), W Greenwood (Harlequins), M Tindall (Bath), B Cohen (Northampton); J Wilkinson (Newcastle), M Dawson (Northampton); T Woodman (Gloucester), S Thompson (Northampton), P Vickery (Gloucester), M Johnson (Leicester, c), D Grewcock (Bath), L Moody (Leicester), R Hill (Saracens), L Dallaglio (Wasps). Replacements: M Regan (Leeds), J Leonard (Harlequins), B Kay (Leicester), N Back (Leicester), A Healey (Leicester), B Johnston (Saracens), T Stimpson (Leicester).
NEW ZEALAND: B Blair; D Howlett, T Umaga, K Lowen, J Lomu; C Spencer, S Devine; J McDonnell, A Hore, K Meeuws, A Williams, K Robinson, T Randell (c), M Holah, S Broomhall. Replacements: K Mealamu, C Hayman, B Mika, R So'oialo, D Lee, A Mehrtens, M Robinson.
Referee: J Kaplan (South Africa).
