WHEN THE 35 man Lions squad to tour South Africa in May is announced tomorrow morning it will reflect to a very large extent what happened in this season's International Championship. England, the Triple Crown winners who beat Ireland, Scotland and Wales so very comprehensively, will have the major share of the places, probably as many as 16. That, in the circumstances, is as it should be.

But there is little doubt that several of the English players who will be chosen failed to gain regular places on the team during the Five Nations series and in one or two instances failed even to get on the England bench. That, of course, will do nothing more than reflect the depth of the England squad.

It will also give added emphasis to the debate as to why a player such as Jeremy Guscott could not get into the England team.

The indications, however, are strong that not one of England's first choice three quarters will be on the plane. The wings John Sleightholme and Rory Underwood were not even named in the 62 man preliminary squad announced some time ago. Centre Will Carling, alone of the England threequarters, is unavailable.

Nor is it even remotely possible that the man who played in all but one of England's championship matches at scrum half, Andy Gomersall, will be in the squad. Yet England could well have two scrum halves in the 35, Austin Healy and Kyran Bracken. Robert Howley, of Wales, by some way the best scrum half in the championship, is a certainty. Bracken may well edge out Scotland's Bryan Redpath.

The outside half berth will have caused the selectors problems. Paul Grayson and Gregor Townsend have emerged as the favourites for the position. Townsend has not, however, been playing of late for Scotland in the position or regularly for Northampton at outside half. He has been in the centre for club and country with Grayson, of course, at outside half for Northampton.

But Lions coach Ian McGeechan is a big admirer of the Scot, a very talented player. Townsend played at outside half for Northampton on Saturday and kicked 13 points. And accomplished place kicking is something the Lions will very badly need in South Africa. Townsend, however, is not a regular kicker for club or country.

Jonathan Davies may well lose out on selection but Neil Jenkins, if he recovers from injury, will surely go as one of the full backs.

His place kicking abilities are not in doubt but his positional play at full back most certainly is. England's full back Tim Stimpson will also be chosen.

Simon Geoghegan, who has missed so much of the year after early season operations on his toes, has made a timely return over the past 10 days. The Lions selectors want Geoghegan and that is understandable. At his best he and Ieuan Evans are the two most accomplished wings in these islands.

The fact that Geoghegan was named in the preliminary squad even though he had not played for five months is indicative of the selectors desire to have Geoghegan on the tour. He is due to play for Bath again tomorrow night and by then I expect to see him named as Ireland's only representative among the Lions backs. The tour has come too early for Denis Hickie; Jonathan Bell's form and confidence deserted him for much of the season but he did play quite well for Ireland in some of the championship matches. It is likely to be too little and too late for Bell.

But despite a poor season, Ireland will have the largest representation on a Lions squad since the tour to New Zealand in 1983. That year Hugo MacNeill, Trevor Bingland, David Irwin, Michael Kiernan, Ollie Campbell, Ciaran Fitzgerald, Donal Lenihan and John O'Driscoll were all chosen. Lenihan was ruled out on the eve of the tour and had to have a hernia operation.

Nick Popplewell has had a season disrupted by a recurring hamstring injury and did not play, against Scotland. There is no doubt that McGeechan and manager Fran Cotton were very interested in taking Popplewell but one wonders if he has done enough. He played last Saturday for Newcastle and scored a try against Richmond.

Peter Clohessy, now playing with Queensland, is certainly strong contender. Cotton has been monitoring his form through videos and contact with Queensland coach John Connolly. Paul Wallace is also a contender and maybe a stronger contender than some have suggested. The squad will include five props and it is possible that both Clohessy and Wallace will be chosen. They are both tight heads. Jason Leonard, who can play with equal facility on either side is a certainty, so I imagine is Graham Rowntree.

I think David Young (Wales), will also go. Were Popplewell to make it then Wallace would surely lose out with Popplewell and Rowntree going as the specialist loose heads and Leonard, Clohessy and Young as the tight heads. Tom Smith of Scotland is also a contender as a loose head. Despite his shoulder injury, Keith Wood is favoured to be chosen together with Martin Regan of England. Wood will however have to prove his fitness and has not played since the match against France after a shoulder operation. He hopes to play within the next 10 days. The third hooker is likely to come from Wales, John Humphreys or Barry Williams. Jeremy Davidson looks odds on for a second row berth and Eric Miller also looks assured of a back row place.

Ireland could thus have one back, Geoghegan, and five forwards, in the party when it is announced. Bearing in mind all the circumstances, that would not be a bad representation. One thing is certain, the physical demands on the forwards in South Africa will be immense, not just in the tests but throughout the tour especially in provincial matches against such as Transvaal, Northern Transvaal, Free State and Natal. That is the nature of South African Rugby. Their back row forwards are especially strong and physical and that is why it would probably be more profitable and sensible to try and attack the Springboks out wide.

The captaincy lies between Martin Johnson (England), Evars and probably Leonard. Johnson is the favourite to get that distinction. The touring party will be ratified by the Four Home Unions tonight and officially announced at 11.30 tomorrow morning.