A look at the crisis surrounding the European Cup.
What is the kernel of the current impasse?
The Ligue Nationale de Rugby (LNR) and its president, Serge Blanco, have boycotted next year's Heineken European Cup because the English RFU will not grant Premier Rugby, the English clubs, half of its shares in the ERC, as the French Federation have done. So the English clubs have followed suit. The RFU will not budge until also agreeing a new deal with the clubs over elite player management, and will not be dictated to by Blanco.
What are the other bones of contention?
Fixture congestion, especially in France with the World Cup to be held there in September and October, the power struggle in France and England over player control, a greater slice of the ERC's profits, more control of the ERC's marketing, a global season, a reduction in the number of test matches, seats on the IRB for the French and English clubs.
What does the future hold?
Scenario A -The European Cup is saved. For this to happen, the RFU and Premier Rugby would need to rapidly agree on a detailed, overall deal regarding elite-player management, with a stipulated number of days for player release and agreed financial compensation for the clubs, and with it a climbdown by the RFU on the vexed ERC shares. Even then, Blanco has said the LNR's decision is irreversible but it would, in theory, supposedly remove his main argument for a boycott.
Scenario B- The Cup proceeds with the English Premiership and French Top 14 clubs for a year. This would entail invitations to the English first division and French second division clubs but would assuredly also mean revised television and sponsorship deals and, hardly likely to capture the public's imagination, looks a non-runner.
Scenario C- The competition returns after a year. No European club rugby suits the LNR especially owing to the fixture overload in France with a World Cup taking up the first two months of the season and only the autumn internationals being sacrificed, and the English could make do with an expanded Anglo-Welsh Cup. This would give breathing space for the English to hammer out a long-term deal and for Blanco to perhaps resolve some of his differences with the International Rugby Board, as a prelude to replacing the Paris Accord with a new module for running the ERC competitions in which the English and French clubs would seek greater financial returns and control. The most likely option.
Scenario D- All-out war and meltdown, with the European Cup dead as we know it. This could entail all sides digging their heels in, with either the RFU or Premier Rugby taking the other to court to enforce the current Long Form Agreement, under which the English clubs are obliged to play in Europe, or the latter seeking to go outside the RFU and IRB's control in refusing to release players for test rugby or seeking to run their own independent matches or competitions, perhaps in alliance with the French.