It's as if the first four months of the season provided the entree. Now comes the beef. Having flitted from one level to the next, without properly finishing off anything except the interpros, suddenly within three weeks there will only be four teams left in the European Cup and the Six Nations will be upon us. Six-and-a-half months of intense rugby eventually culminating in the Lions with scarcely time to pause for breath between now and then. It's getting interesting.
An indication of the new intensity is the timing of Eric Miller's fractured thumb, sustained on Friday night against Munster in Cork. Aside from ruling him out of Leinster's final two Euro pool games and, potentially, the quarter-finals, he'll probably miss Ireland's first three championship games and hence half a dozen or so opportunities in the shop window for the Lions. (Ireland have now lost the equivalent of an entire back row before a ball is kicked in the Six Nations.)
At least his season isn't effectively over, but seasons will start ending from this weekend. As things stand one of the benefits of the season's itinerary is that after the European Cup's mid-season hiatus, 18 of the competition's 24 entrants are still in contention. But come Sunday teatime they won't be. The next two weekends are, in a sense, the semi-knockout phase, with the quarter-finals to follow immediately. Miller's injury apart, Leinster's cause can only have been helped by last Friday's run-out. They arguably needed the win more too. It extends their unbeaten run to five games and going into this Friday's game they are unbeaten at Donnybrook in eight matches. Though the Edinburgh Reivers' encounter is the kind of game in which the mercurial blues are liable to give supporters palpitations, they've no reason to be anything other than healthily confident.
The break has allowed a host of players to recuperate from injuries. Matt Williams has been vindicated by his prudent signing of Eddie Hekenui and last Friday's confirmation of Brian O'Meara as a front-rank place-kicker (his finely struck three from three was ultimately the winning and the losing of the game) is a further boon.
Victory, were it also to come with a significant boost to their healthy try tally of 12, would possibly leave them with a big toe in the quarter-finals (for the first time since the Cup's inaugural year five seasons ago) and heading to Biarritz with the goal of a home quarter-final firmly in their sights. Were it also to be accompanied by a Northampton win over Biarritz this Saturday, then the French side would have to outscore them by at least four tries to gain first place in Pool One, though Northampton's scratchy form, lack of any tangible interest in the competition and another injury scare for Kieron Dawson doesn't augur too well.
If both sides win, then Biarritz would have home advantage in what would effectively be a knockout tie on Saturday week, so Biarritz are arguably fractionally better placed. Defeat this Friday (and Reviers know they must win) would leave Leinster precariously placed as they would then have to win in Biarritz and hope Edinburgh lose at home to Northampton.
Eight points and a sizeable try tally will probably be the threshold for obtaining one of the two best runners-up slots in the quarterfinals. However, one of inequities of the competition's format is that the pools with Italian sides have a distinct advantage in securing one of those two runners-up places. This problem would not have existed had the Cup retained the format of three seasons ago when the other six pool runners-up were accommodated in a play-off round.
Pool Two is the prime example, where Mike Brewer's inexperienced L'Aquila side have predictably proved more porous than a soup strainer, leaking 40 tries in four games. Hence it is virtually certain Stade Francais and Swansea (on eight points with 26 tries) will reach the
quarter-finals, with their grudge match in Paris on Saturday week to decide first place and home advantage in the quarter-finals.
Cardiff would become the first team to ensure qualification were they to beat Ulster on Friday night and so win Pool Three, leaving Saracens with only a forlorn hope of one of the runners-up places and Toulouse, the only side to have reached the knockout stages every season so far, none at all - unless Ulster do them a favour this Friday. Ulster must win that one, in which case a subsequent home win over Saracens would given them a chance of winning the pool, though they would still need Toulouse to beat Cardiff at home and the existing odds of 200 to 1 on them regaining the trophy are, alas, probably about right.
Munster's fate hinges hugely on the outcome of their match in Newport this Saturday. Victory would leave them well placed to secure a home quarter-final by beating Castres in front of a capacity Thomond Park crowd seven days later. However, defeat would jeopardise their hopes of reaching the last eight. In that scenario, Munster and Newport would be level on points, having beaten each other once, and so their ranking would be decided by tries over the two games. Munster hold a slender 3-2 lead from the first game.
The Gloucester-Llanelli meeting in Pool Five is a massive game, as the winners will have one foot in the quarter-finals, with Colomiers still live contenders. Likewise, the potentially stormy Pool Six summit meeting and grudge match between Pau and a Martin Johnson-less Leicester where Alan Lewis has a daunting assignment in the Stade de Hameau.
So, from 18 to eight in two combustible weekends, the quarter-finalists might read: Stade Francais, Cardiff, Pau, Munster, Gloucester, Leinster, Swansea and, at a push, Llanelli. As bets go, it might even be worth a nickel.
