Seán Moran finds it hard to see past Mickey Harte's men, Armagh and Kerry as All-Ireland contenders

The ability to look forward perceptively is difficult to acquire. At the start of this year's Bank of Ireland All-Ireland football championship the months ahead are as overshadowed as they perennially are by the focus on the reigning champions.

Can Tyrone succeed where their 15 immediate predecessors have failed? Two and a half years ago when Mickey Harte led the county to their first All-Ireland his comments on team preparation caused a stir and seemed to point a way to more scientific and sustained methods of training.

"Training has been about quality rather than quantity, something we'd preached a long time. I think it's great to show that you can get to All-Ireland level training just two nights a week and one game at the weekend.

"The other interesting statistic is that yesterday was our 21st match and we never played a single challenge in the entire year. I think it's very valuable to be playing in the National League up to the concluding stages."

The long-term implications seemed to be that if any team might crack the retention of Sam Maguire it could be Tyrone with a preparation cycle that could be realistically repeated at 12-monthly intervals.

We never really got to know two years ago. In retrospect, it appears strange that anyone could have thought that Tyrone's challenge might survive the death of captain Cormac McAnallen and by the end of the season - a quarter-final defeat by Mayo - Harte was conceding they were glad to see the back of 2004.

Whereas the champions have suffered no comparable trauma this year the news last weekend that Brian McGuigan is out for the season was a major shock to the county's prospects. It also meant that taken with the retirement of Peter Canavan, Tyrone are now short one third of last year's starting attack in the All-Ireland final.

They were also arguably their most influential players.

McGuigan was named RTÉ's Man of the Match and Canavan as well as scoring the vital goal and the extraordinary and crucial point just after Tomás Ó Sé's goal, performed the same steadying job that had marked his contribution to the All-Ireland of 2003.

Canavan's departure would have been a tricky enough matter to handle even before McGuigan broke his leg. His experience and galvanising effect on team-mates - especially Owen Mulligan - will be hard enough to replace without losing the team's most creative forward.

Eamonn Coleman told Joe Kernan in 2003 that things you couldn't plan for, injuries, had been the biggest curse in his post-All-Ireland year and Armagh discovered the same when losing that year to Monaghan.

But at least those injuries cleared and the qualifiers allowed them back into the game. Tyrone are clearly going to have to make longer-term adjustments.

In the wider context we await the unfolding of the championship. Yet again the top three of Tyrone, Armagh and Kerry appear to be holding their status in that there haven't been any credible new candidates emerging from the NFL.

Mayo did well for a while and Galway finished strongly but would either be fancied against any of the big three in the coming weeks? Of course there are four and a half months for things to change.

We have seen how hard injury can hit teams' hopes - not just in Tyrone but also in Westmeath, who go into the championship minus Dessie Dolan. A year ago Tyrone were rated distinctly behind Armagh and Kerry but by the end of the year had reversed that tentative hierarchy.

Kerry duly won the League - as the big three have done for the past five years now - but it's hard to see what definitive improvement has been made. If anything they look even more dependent on Colm Cooper.

Kieran Donaghy is a welcome prospect at centrefield but his road holding on blistering afternoons has yet to be tested.

Armagh are in a similar position but they don't have as much ground to make up on Tyrone but some year they won't be able to sustain the intensity of recent years.

It's not so long since membership of the big three was confined to Meath, Kerry and Galway who alternated All-Irelands for six years. It wasn't entirely foreseeable when that status would be revoked but once it happened the signs were clear.

The supplementary question is where are the fresh candidates: teams with the sort of experience Armagh had earned by 2002 or the under-age credentials Tyrone had been amassing?

Dublin had a positive year in 2005 but the gap still exists, even if Paul Caffrey's team struggled admirably to bridge it. Laois have been under-achieving over the past two seasons and Cork's championships have ended very badly in recent years.

The one thing that shouldn't happen to genuine candidates for the top table is that they get thoroughly outclassed by the elite. To a greater or lesser extent that fate befell the above three in their final matches last year just as it befell Mayo and Galway 12 months previously.

Of the chasing pack, Galway look freshest given the introduction of new players and Peter Ford's management. Maybe they would have been devoured by Kerry last year just as the Cork team that beat them were but they showed enough improvement in the NFL to head the queue for those aspiring to break into the elite.

Overall, though, there doesn't appear to be the sort of movement in the chasing pack that suggests a new challenger and if the big three don't look especially convincing at present they know their way around and even allowing for his difficulties, Harte has the best track record of improvising his way out of trouble and harnessing the season to develop a heavyweight challenge.

1996 All-Ireland champions Dublin didn't make it out of Leinster and fell victim to an inexperienced Meath team. Mayo were the other story, emerging under John Maughan from Division Three to win Connacht and defeat Kerry to reach the All-Ireland. Meath turned over favourites Tyrone in the other semi-final.

The final went to replay and on both days Mayo led by six points before being caught at the death on both occasions. The second match featured a notorious free-for-all, which saw Liam McHale and Colm Coyle sent off and Meath eventually winning by a point.

Connacht - Mayo beat Galway; Leinster - Meath beat Dublin; Munster - Kerry beat Cork; Ulster - Tyrone beat Down. Footballer of the Year - Trevor Giles (Meath).

1986 The last hurrah for Mick O'Dwyer's Kerry and the first appearance of Seán Boylan's Meath, who won a first Leinster in 16 years and pushed Kerry hard in the semi-finals, despite conceding a notorious goal when three defenders fell over each other, leaving Ger Power in possession in front of an open goal.

Tyrone defeated Galway to reach the county's first All-Ireland final, a memorable occasion which included a sensational opening 45 minutes at the end of which Art McRory's team led by seven points. Pat Spillane drove the comeback and Kerry won by eight to register the three-in-a-row.

Connacht - Galway beat Roscommon; Leinster - Meath beat Dublin; Munster - Kerry beat Cork; Ulster - Tyrone beat Down. Footballer of the Year - Pat Spillane (Kerry).

1976 This was an historic year for Dublin and remains the only time in over 80 years that the county has defeated Kerry in an All-Ireland final. It was also the last time for 20 years that the Ulster title would be retained. Derry, however, had a chastening semi-final and were out-scored 5-6 to 1-1 in the second half. Dublin had it harder in the other semi-final, eventually squeezing out Galway by two points.

As holders, Kerry were favourites, but the famous Kevin Moran solo in the opening minutes signalled Dublin's intent. Kerry came back from the first two goals but Brian Mullins's third finally settled the matter.

Connacht - Galway beat Roscommon; Leinster - Dublin beat Meath; Munster - Kerry beat Cork (replay); Ulster - Derry beat Cavan (replay). Footballer of the Year - Jimmy Keaveney (Dublin).

1966 This was the year of Galway's three-in-a-row, but the All-Ireland semi-final against Cork was a tense encounter with the Connacht champions winning by just two points.

There was a perception Galway were in decline and they started the final as underdogs, so impressive had Meath been in taking apart Down. However, Galway ran away with it - leading 1-6 to 0-1 at half-time. Meath rallied in the second half but it was too late.

Connacht - Galway beat Mayo; Leinster - Meath beat Kildare; Munster - Cork beat Kerry; Ulster - Down beat Donegal. Footballer of the Year - Mattie McDonagh (Galway).