European Cup Quarter-final/ Llanelli v Munster: Nothing concentrates the mind, especially the Munster mindset, than the fear of impending failure and the European champions reach the point of no return in Stradey Park this evening.
This week, the newly-installed captain, Ronan O'Gara, has been pointing out to his team-mates the full consequences of defeat tonight, ie waking up tomorrow morning without their Euro crown and, by extension, having little or nothing tangible to play for through the remainder of the season. It is a scary thought.
Granted, fear of losing their proud, 11-year unbeaten record in the Heineken European Cup at Thomond Park didn't prevent Leicester from storming their Limerick citadel in the concluding round of pool games last January. Indeed, it seemed to encumber them, and the penalty is an away quarter-final; a notoriously difficult task.
All told, 30 of the previous 40 quarter-finals have gone to the home side (although the ratio has quadrupled in the last five years) and the Scarlets, who qualified more impressively than anyone, are unbeaten at their Stradey fortress for 14 months. Hence their decision to keep the tie here, rather than move to less familiar surrounds such as the Liberty Stadium, and so reduce the impact of the Red Army.
With Stephen Jones and Mark Jones passed fit, they are at full-strength, whereas Munster have a makeshift look to them without established pillars such as captains present and past, Paul O'Connell and Anthony Foley, and the proverbial rock at the back, Shaun Payne, not to mention Barry Murphy being confined to the bench. Llanelli have the more settled, proven look, and more strike power in their backline.
O'Gara, playing the most mature rugby of his life in the last year or two, has the makings of a good captain. He has, more often than not, been their tactical lynchpin in any case. But in the pack there is no obvious leader, although the stage is set for Denis Leamy and the backrowers in their intriguing battle with Simon Easterby. Here, the form of the desperately unfortunate Alan Quinlan is a real boon. He and Jerry Flannery, pining for a run of games, should be men on a mission tonight.
Without O'Connell to lead the charge around the fringes and at restart time, Mick O'Driscoll, passed fit despite sustaining a rib cartilage injury in Rome, needs to produce his biggest game of an undistinguished season thus far, and for all his astonishing workrate, Donncha O'Callaghan needs to come up with some big plays too.
Describing it as "a fairly daunting task" in what he described as the heart of Welsh rugby on arrival yesterday, Declan Kidney commented: "The Scarlets are like ourselves, they're steeped in tradition, and I've no doubt they'll throw the fully monty at us. These quarter-finals are always about what happens on the night. I just hope our boys enjoy themselves and will be able to live with themselves after, saying we gave it the full throttle."
The forecast of a cloudy, damp night may be no bad thing, for if conditions dictate that Munster resort to a back to basics approach, play territory based around setpieces, it may also mitigate against Llanelli's high tempo, loose, offloading game. And, although he was the man in charge when Munster lost at this stage to Biarritz in San Sebastien two years ago, the appointment of Chris White has to be a good sign.
The old dogs for the long road, Munster have had their customary pool blip and are playing in their ninth consecutive quarter-final - a record. One can envisage the pack cranking up their intensity whenever they have a sniff of the Scarlets' line, a big defensive effort stopping Llanelli's running and offloading game at source, of big games from Flannery, Leamy, Wallace and Quinlan, of Trevor Halstead giving them go-forward momentum, and of O'Gara rising to the responsibility and kicking his goals.
With Munster, not always for entirely logical reasons, you always feel there is a sense of destiny about where they are heading, and the hunch remains they might be destined to have another vengeful pop off Leicester in the semi-finals, presuming the Tigers account for an injury ravaged Stade Francais. True, a genuine fear lurks that this could be the end of the road for Munster this season, but then again it is that fear which might induce that inner resolve and resilience, that Munster X factor. They'll need it.
LLANELLI SCARLETS:B Davies; M Jones, R King, G Evans, D James; S Jones, D Peel; I Thomas, M Rees, D Manu, V Cooper, S MacLeod, S Easterby (capt), G Thomas, A Popham. Replacements: K Owens, J Davies, I Afeaki, D Jones, L Davies, C Thomas, M Watkins.
Munster:C Cullen; J Kelly, L Mafi, T Halstead, I Dowling; R O'Gara (capt), P Stringer; M Horan, J Flannery, J Hayes, D O'Callaghan, M O'Driscoll, A Quinlan, D Wallace, D Leamy. Replacements: F Sheahan, F Pucciariello, D Ryan, A Foley, T O'Leary, J Manning, B Murphy. (Anthony Foley faces a late fitness test. If he is ruled out his place at No 19 among the replacements will be taken by John O'Sullivan.).
Referee:Chris White (England).
Previous Heineken Cup meetings: None.
Results so far:Llanelli: 32-25 v London Irish (a); 21-15 v Ulster (h); 20-19 v Toulouse (h); 41-34 v Toulouse (a); 35-11 v Ulster (a), 20-16 v London Irish (h). Munster: 21-19 v Leicester (a), 41-23 v Bourgoin (h), 22-12 v Cardiff (a), 32-18 v Cardiff (h), 30-27 v Bourgoin (a), 6-13 v Leicester (h).
Match betting(Paddy Powers): 6/5 Llanelli, 20/1
Draw, 4/6 Munster.
Handicap odds(= Llanelli +2pts) 10/11 Llanelli,
22/1 Draw, 10/11 Munster.
Forecast:Munster to win.
Should the scores be tied at full-time then 20 minutes (two periods of 10 minutes) of extra time will be played. If at the end of extra time the scores are still level, then the winners will be the team which has scored the most tries in the game, including extra-time. If the teams are level on points and tries at the end of extra time then the winners will be determined through a place-kicking competition with each team nominating five kickers from those XV on the pitch.
