Rugby/Biarritz v Leinster: Make or break time. Leinster's imposing renewal of hostilities with Biarritz Olympique in the Parc des Sports Aguilera today will simply define their season. As Keith Gleeson told his team-mates during the week, if they don't win this decisive Pool Three meeting, this Leinster team will probably never play together in the Heineken European Cup again.
That's the way they've got to approach it, for victory would probably earn them a home quarter-final, though they do have a get out of jail card. Were Leinster to pick up a bonus point for losing by fewer than eight points, and deny Biarritz a bonus point for scoring four tries, they would squeeze through on the basis of a better head-to-head record with the French outfit.
In that scenario, Leinster would probably be consigned to an away quarter-final, but after a campaign of so many injuries and disruptions, and with Felipe Contepomi, Brian O'Driscoll and co to come back into the reckoning, that would definitely be a result.
But there are uncanny and unhappy memories of the 30-10 defeat in almost identical circumstances at the same venue three years ago. That very night in Biarritz airport, frustrated by their tendency to underachieve, Matt Williams told them they had to change their entire approach and mindset, on and off the pitch. If so, they could win the cup within three years.
"It pretty much started that night," recalls Victor Costello, a recipient of an ERC Elite award for becoming only the fourth player to play 50 times in the cup today. "Normally, in those days, you'd go off for a beer and wouldn't be seen for two weeks and then come back in and talk about next year and making loads of promises. Whereas that time we were shaken into coming back in a couple of days later, make these promises and keep them, and this is what the rewards will be.
"And we all agreed that we would. We changed a hell of a lot as a team and as players. We embraced professionalism in the way that we needed to embrace it."
Greater enjoyment came with greater success. The following season they were unlucky to be pitched into a quarter-final at Leicester after a 15-match winning run in all competitions, and last season they tripped up in the semi-finals. Gleeson's words probably struck a cord with the 33-year-old Costello as much as anyone.
Costello recalls playing with shingles that miserable night here three years ago, when Leinster were blown off the pitch by the Biarritz pack and the appalling Italian official Giovanni Morandin. Leinster haven't scaled the heights of the last two seasons in this campaign, and the manner of their performances suggests their confidence is brittle.
But Costello believes today will be different for one reason. "There's a lot of fear, and that fear will kick into performing on the pitch. Forget all the razzmatazz, forget the scoreboard, it's just going to be trench warfare out there."
The temperature on arrival exactly 24 hours prior to kick-off was an acceptable 12 degrees and dry, as the squad were accompanied by the first batch of the expected 500-strong Leinster supporters. Coach Gary Ella didn't see any point in a time-consuming trek to the ground, or an additional run-out, having scaled down training this week for his mostly over-worked squad.
The forecast is mixed, cloudy and dry at best, rain at worst. The pitch, according to club officials, is not the pudding it was three years ago.
With their French World Cup quartet and the Romanian duo of wrestler-turned-prop Petru Balan and flanker Ovidiu Tonita, an unchanged Biarritz seem in comparatively rude health. They've won 10 of 11 home matches in the cup, averaging 30 points in winning their last seven, and have a double whiff of revenge in their nostrils.
But with the crowd expected to be some 5,000 short of the 12,417 capacity, Leinster's growing travelling support will be heard.
Crucially too, Leinster have since made the psychological breakthrough of a first win in France, against a Montferrand side arguably superior to this Biarritz outfit.
Christian Warner's return will make a difference, and it's worth recalling that Aidan McCullen scored four tries in starting five of Leinster's pool games last season.
The lineout is liable to be king, not least given Biarritz's maul is so potent, and Jean-Michel Gonzalez could be a weak link.
Brian O'Meara, to his credit, has been the more reliable of the two goalkicking scrumhalves, but against this the appointment of Nigel Williams as referee is a concern given his three previous ties all ended in home wins amid a welter of penalties against the away sides.
Leinster have to start well, and have something to defend entering the final quarter.
It will be a tense afternoon.
BIARRITZ OLYMPIQUE: N Brusque; P Bidabe, M Stcherbina, J Isaac, J Marlu; J Peyrelongue, D Yachvili; P Balan, J Gonzalez, D Avril, H Manent, D Couzinet, S Betsen, T Lievremont (capt), O Tonita. Replacements: D Minassian, M Fitzgerald, S Puleoto, D Chouchan, L Mazas, M Gaitan, P Bernat-Salles.
LEINSTER: G Dempsey; J McWeeney, G D'Arcy, S Horgan, B Burke; C Warner, B O'Meara; R Corrigan (Capt), S Byrne, P Coyle, M O'Kelly, B Gissing, A McCullen, K Gleeson, V Costello. Replacements: E Bohan, G Hickie, A Kearney, S Jennings, B O'Riordan, M Leek, D Quinlan.
Referee: Nigel Williams (Wales).
PREVIOUS MEETINGS: 2000-01 Leinster 35 Biarritz 9, Biarritz 30 Leinster 10. 2003-4 Leinster 32 Biarritz 6.
FORMGUIDE: Biarritz - 6-32 v Leinster (a), 31-3 v Sale (h), 35-20 v Cardiff (h), 20-21 v Cardiff (a), 15-0 v Sale (a). Leinster - 32-6 v Biarritz (h), 24-19 v Cardiff (a), 22-23 v Sale (h), 23-16 v Sale (a), 20-17 v Cardiff (h).
LEADING POINTS SCORERS: Biarritz: Dimitri Yachvili 39pts. Leinster: Brian O'Meara 68pts.
LEADING TRY SCORERS: Biarritz: Jimmy Marlu, Philippe Bidabe, Ovidiu Tonita, David Couzinet, Nicolas Brusque 2 each. Leinster: Shane Horgan, John McWeeney 2 each.
BETTING (courtesy of Paddy Power): Biarritz, Draw, Leinster. Handicap odds (= Leinster + pts) 10/11 Biarritz, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.
FORECAST: Leinster to squeeze through.
