Mark Lawrenson Soccer analyst There's a touch of déjà vu about this. Every year, for the past few seasons, I've said I can't look beyond Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool for the Premiership, and I can't say any different this time around.

I will say, though, that I think Leeds will have a good season and could possibly make it a quartet of teams challenging for the title.

I expect Arsenal to find it a little bit more difficult this year. It's always hard enough defending your title, but it's especially so when Liverpool and Manchester United are so desperate and so determined to finish above you.

Arsenal have bought extremely wisely this summer - based on what I saw of Gilberto Silva at the World Cup, it looks to me like they've stolen him for £4.5 million - but their problem is going to be getting the same quality of performance from the likes of Ljungberg, Pires (when he comes back), Bergkamp and Wiltord. They were brilliant from midfield last season, each player had his own month when he was fantastic, especially Pires at the start and Ljungberg at the end.

I have my doubts, though, that they will do it again, and they won't be helped by the absence of Pires and Ljungberg at the start. I also felt they had the run of the ball in the last three months of the season; whether they'll have it again remains to be seen.

I feel, and I've said this to Gerard Houllier himself, when I watch Liverpool it's like watching a team that's permanently got the handbrake on: if they let the handbrake off a little bit they'd have an even better chance. I just feel they can play a more expansive game. Arsene Wenger did it last year with Arsenal and look what happened. It's time now for Liverpool to do the same.

Houllier's done a great job, but this is the season to encourage the midfield and forward players to go for it; they've really been very cautious so far. To be honest, if they'd got Lee Bowyer and Damien Duff I would have said "put your money on them". They haven't had, in recent years, anyone from midfield to get them 10 goals a season - Scholes, Beckham and Giggs can do it for United, Pires and Ljungberg do it for Arsenal.

It's down to Houllier now. He has this belief that when they go forward they must have six behind the ball, but they're so good at the back it's time to take chances. To win the league you must have so many different attacking options. I look at Liverpool and I feel they are five per cent short in that department.

Rio Ferdinand's departure won't have a great impact on Leeds - if Matteo, Woodgate and Radebe are fit, and they've still got Duberry, they're covered in that area, so I think £30 million was good business.

Whatever you say about Terry Venables, he's a very good coach, he gets his teams playing and they want to play for him (which sounds trite, but when they're all millionaires it can be quite difficult). He can also get the best out of Harry Kewell, who's had two poor seasons, having worked with him as Australian coach. Just keep Venables away from the finances, that's like putting King Herrod in charge of Mothercare.

Chelsea? I don't think so. They've got no money and they've got such a volatile situation there - you know yourself, if Hasselbaink's shorts aren't clean enough he'll want to leave.

Newcastle? They don't suggest to me they can win the league with the defence that they've got. If it hadn't been for Shay Given, who was magnificent last season, they'd probably have finished about 10th.

Which brings me to my tip for the title ... as you suspected, Manchester United. I think they'll win it because I just can't see them losing another eight or nine games this year. Ferdinand will help sort out their defensive problems, and they've got O'Shea and Brown (when he gets over his injury) maturing, and they have the steadying influence of Laurent Blanc.

Of course no one is worth the money United paid for Ferdinand - I wouldn't give you £30 million for Zinedine Zidane, after all, he's only a footballer who pulls hamstrings and twists ankles - but, in saying that, Ferdinand's a good buy for them because he's exactly what they needed.

I can tell you now that United have been trying to get rid of Seba Veron all summer, trying to do a deal to get their money back or somebody in his place. The problem is there's no money in Italy, which is where he would go. It's never been in question that he is a good player, but when he plays in the centre he's all over the place, no discipline.

For me, United's best team does not include Veron, simple as that: Beckham, Keane, Scholes and Giggs in midfield, I don't think you can better that.

They're the team to beat, mainly because of the ability of their midfield players to create and score. In many ways Arsenal copied them last season, they played a more expansive game. It was a big backhanded compliment to United, but I think, this time, United will be back.

Outside the top six, Spurs, Aston Villa, Middlesbrough and maybe Fulham should be okay, and I expect Blackburn to have a good season. You can see them creating a lot of chances with Duff on the left, Gillespie on the right and Tugay and Dunn through the middle and, of course, Yorke and Cole up front.

West Ham intrigue me this year. They had a really good finish to last season and looked very, very strong up front. Sunderland won't have a good season, but I don't expect them to be relegated. I can certainly see Manchester City surviving, but the rest are almost interchangeable.

I expect Birmingham and West Brom to go down; you're only as strong as your worst player, and when I look at them I have to say "no". I think they'll be cut adrift at the bottom quite early on, with another four or five teams scrapping to avoid the last relegation spot: Bolton, Everton, Southampton and Charlton, most probably. And at the top? Manchester United.

The kiss of death, again?

In an interview with Mary Hannigan