No sooner have the final runners and riders been declared for France '98, there is a delicate problem to resolve regarding the seeding arrangements for FIFA's first-ever 32-country World Cup finals next summer. Put simply, it concerns who gets to head the eight first-round groups, each with four teams, from which 16 sides will emerge into the second, knock-out phase of the finals.
Following last weekend's playoffs 31 of the 32 finalists have booked their passage, with the final play-off between Australia and Iran (November 22nd in Tehran, November 29th in Melbourne) the only unresolved issue. Japan, Jamaica and Chile added their names on Sunday to the four European nations - Italy, Croatia, Yugoslavia and Belgium - who wrapped up their qualifications on Saturday night.
It may prove of meagre consolation to Irish fans, but the line-out for France '98 looks intriguingly strong. With the exception perhaps of Uruguay and Russia, all the recognised soccer powers are there.
Five of the six countries which have won all 15 World Cup finals played since 1930 - Brazil, Germany, Argentina, England and Italy - have qualified. The odd man out is Uruguay, winners in 1930 and 1950. Six of the eight countries to have won the 10 European Championships played since 1960 - Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Holland and Denmark - have also qualified with the only exceptions here being the 1960 champions, the USSR (Russia), and the 1976 champions Czechoslovakia (the Czech Republic).
Furthermore, the five African representatives not only include the 1996 Olympic champions, Nigeria, but also recent African Nations Cup winners, South Africa, as well as traditionally-strong teams such as Cameroon and Morocco (Tunisia are the fifth).
Asia's most successful World Cup qualifier, South Korea, will again be there, as will a host of intriguing outsiders that include Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Yugoslavia from Eastern Europe, not to mention Colombia from Latin America.
Inevitably, the so-called "big guns" want to avoid one another for as long as possible, while FIFA's purposes are ill-served by an open draw which could, for example, pit Argentina against holders Brazil in the first round.
A seeding system will be introduced for the December 4th draw in Marseilles when six countries will be named as seeds along with France and Brazil, already seeded as host country and title holders respectively. As always on such occasions, FIFA reserves the right to decide on the seeding criteria, regardless of historical precedent. For socio-political reasons, however, when FIFA name their seeds on the day before the draw, they may well reject the two most obvious criteria to hand - namely, either their own current world rankings or a listing based on results obtained in the last three World Cup finals tournaments. The current FIFA rankings (due to be updated tomorrow) pose problems since, as they now stand, the six seeds promoted along with France and Brazil would be, in ranking order, Spain, Germany, Romania, Denmark, England and Holland. Anyone who thinks that FIFA will start France '98 with either Denmark or Romania as seeds can think again. Furthermore, such a seeding list would be pure folly, leaving sides such as Argentina, Italy and Holland free for potential first-round clashes with France, Brazil, Germany etc.
If, on the other hand, FIFA use their own World Cup rankings (based on the 1986, 1990 and 1994 tournaments) then the six sides due for seeding along with France and Brazil would be Germany, Italy, Argentina, Spain, Belgium, and Romania. We're back at Romania, this time along with Belgium, but as far as FIFA and its box-office calculations are concerned, it'll be no thank you to both sides. Furthermore, the second system excludes England, currently seventh in the world rankings and, more importantly, one of the elite group of six countries ever to win a World Cup.
In the end, FIFA will opt for a political solution. Despite their high rankings, countries such as Denmark, Romania and Belgium may be offloaded to allow for a historical choice (England) and a geo-political choice such as an African seed (probably Nigeria). This would leave a seeding list reading: France, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, Spain, England and Nigeria.
When all is said and done, though, no matter what way the seeding eventually goes, a rough ride on the six-match run to the July 12th final is guaranteed.
