Leinster v Edinburgh:MAKE OR break, do or die, etc, etc. Leinster put their Euro aspirations on the line at the RDS tomorrow and while neither this week's spate of injuries and suspensions nor a sleepy Sunday lunchtime kick-off inspire confidence, most of all it is the thought of the Edinburgh bogeymen coming to town that will send shivers up the spine.
Beware, too, supposedly under-strength teams swinging from the hip – as Montauban showed in round one against Munster, not to mention the carefree offloading game with which Edinburgh ran up a bonus-point win over Castres last week.
Yet confirmation that Frank Hadden’s request for seven or eight frontline Edinburgh players to be rested has been granted by Andy Robinson looks like a potentially lucky break for Leinster. As two of them are props, it may lessen the strain on Cian Healy, and even the makeshift secondrow pairing of Trevor Hogan and Devin Toner looks fine, recalling how Toner started both of the bonus-point wins over Edinburgh this season. Unsurprisingly, Michael Cheika has retained the same backline en bloc.
Right, let’s do the maths. If Leinster match Wasps’ result in Castres, they are through by dint of their superior head-to-head record against the London club. Leinster may also have an advantage playing on Sunday, as they will know the final positions in four of the other five pools. Thus, come kick-off, it could be that they will only need 20 points to go through as one of the best runners-up even if Wasps win with a bonus point in Castres (though the odds on that have decreased with the French side naming a relatively strong selection). For that to happen, they most probably need a Leicester win away to the Ospreys and no freakish divvy-out of bonus points when Bath and Toulouse kick off subsequently.
There is an outside hope Leinster could also obtain a home quarter-final. For that to happen, they would need a bonus-point win and, along with the Ospreys beating Leicester without a bonus point, either Harlequins or Munster slipping up. It is a very long shot and, besides, offered a place of any hue in the last eight, most associated with Leinster would take it and let April roll on.
Offered that at the start of the season, along with being two points off Munster in second place in the Magners League, and neither Cheika nor most Leinster players or fans would have turned down such a scenario. Lose, or go out, and, well, a Magners League challenge suddenly wouldn’t seem like much of a consolation. So much hinges on one game.
“It hinges on lots of game, but it’s come down to this one,” reasons Cheika. “But I’d say if you’d put me in this situation at the start of the season, compared to (this point) last year, I’m much happier we’re still in the hunt and we’ve got our destiny in our own hands.”
Most likely Leinster will make it a nerve-jangling struggle or reach the last eight quite smoothly, and pending an early try or not, the first 20 minutes will probably give a fairly strong indication.
On what is forecast to be grim weather, it may not be a little wet but relatively calm come kick-off. Perhaps the south of France beckons again, in a line-up like: Cardiff v Leicester; Munster v Wasps; Harlequins v Ospreys; Toulouse v Leinster.
LEINSTER: R Kearney, S Horgan, B O’Driscoll, F Contepomi, L Fitzgerald, I Nacewa, C Whitaker [capt], C Healy, B Jackman, S Wright, T Hogan, D Toner, R Elsom, S Jennings, J Heaslip. Replacements: J Fogarty, O le Roux, S Keogh, S O’Brien, C Keane, G D’Arcy, G Dempsey.
EDINBURGH: C Paterson, A Turnbull, N De Luca, J Houston, S Webster, D Blair, G Laidlaw, K Traynor, A Kelly, G Cross, , B Gissing, S Newlands, S Cross, A Hogg [capt]. Replacements: S Lawrie, G Kerr, J Hamilton, A MacDonald, B Meyer, J Thompson, R Reid.
Referee: Chris White (England).
Previous meetings: (2000-01) Edinburgh 29 Leinster 21; Leinster 34 Edinburgh 34; (2006-07): Edinburgh 25 Leinster 24; Leinster 49 Edinburgh 10; (2007-08): Leinster 28 Edinburgh 14; Edinburgh 29 Leinster 10. (2008-09) Edinburgh 16 Leinster 27.
Results so far: Leinster – 27-16 v Edinburgh (a); 41-11 v Wasps (h); 33-3 v Castres (h); 15-18 v Castres (a); 12-19 v Wasps (a). Edinburgh – 16-27 v Leinster (h); 13-6 v Castres (h); 16-25 v Wasps (h); 11-19 v Wasops (a); 32-14 v Castres (h).
Leading try scorers: Leinster – Brian O’Driscoll 4, Felipe Contepomi, Rocky Elsom 2 each. Edinburgh – Mark Robertson 2.
Leading points scorers: Leinster – Contepomi 43. Edinburgh – Chris Paterson 34.
Betting (Paddy Powers): 1/16 Leinster, 40/1 Draw, 7/1 Edinburgh. Handicap odds (= Edinburgh + 17pts) 10/11 Leinster, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Edinburgh.
Forecast: Leinster to win.
