It's colours to the mast time. Florida Pearl will have to be an exceptional horse to win today's Tote Cheltenham Gold Cup. The good news is that he just might be that.
The bare evidence, however, suggests otherwise. Length-and-a-half defeats of Escartefigue in last year's Royal & SunAlliance and last month's Hennessy indicate another top class performer in a Gold Cup already littered with them.
But if the century's last blue riband of steeple-chasing is to be won by an outstanding talent, then Florida Pearl looks the only candidate.
Colossal investment of Irish hopes have been made on that assumption and, presuming normal luck in running (which Nick Dundee proved cannot be presumed), an assessment of Florida Pearl's chance really comes down to one question: is he idling when he hits the front or is he stopping?
If the answer is the latter, then the unforgiving Cheltenham hill and some proven quality stayers will find him out. If it's the former, then Cheltenham could be in for a benchmark performance.
Your correspondent initially believed the pessimistic, half-empty theory. How could a horse who showed such hair-raising speed to win the 1997 Bumper be guaranteed to stay three miles and two furlongs? To use a flat race analogy, would Florida Pearl emerge as an El Gran Senor rather than a Nijinsky?
The flat race comparison isn't too bizarre, because Florida Pearl travels in his races like few staying chasers ever have. Keen, athletic and able to quicken in an instant, he could conceivably travel on the bridle to the last and then be released by Richard Dunwoody.
That's the optimistic, half-full theory. It's one that Dunwoody, Ruby Walsh, who has schooled Florida Pearl extensively, and Willie Mullins subscribe to. An outrageous talent like Florida Pearl can hardly be expected to also know geography. He doesn't know where the winning post is so he hits the front and thinks he has done enough. Admittedly, that demands a certain degree of belief, but if Dunwoody times it correctly, then the vindication could be of a sort rarely seen at Cheltenham.
One thing is for certain though. Florida Pearl will have to earn victory. A quality team of English-trained horses are ranged against him, led by Teeton Mill. There could also be stamina doubts about him despite victories this season in the King George, the Hennessy and a particularly impressive effort at Ascot last time.
It's worth betting that there is no credence to those doubts either. Escartefigue is finally blinkered today, something David Nicholson has been urged to do all season. There are no stamina doubts about him and Mullins is still inclined to view him with the utmost respect.
Double Thriller's reputation is almost entirely due to a defeat of Teeton Mill in a hunter chase last year, but Venetia Williams has turned Teeton Mill inside out since.
Dorans Pride, third for the last two years, could, however, be the great danger to Florida Pearl. Michael Hourigan has prepared him differently this season, Paul Carberry is likely to ride him more aggressively and he appeared to be travelling at least as well as Florida Pearl when the latter fell in the Ericsson. Dorans Pride looks a knocking each way bet.
Another Irish challenger, the 1996 winner Imperial Call, was withdrawn last night.
But if the Gold Cup is about finding champions, this is the day for Florida Pearl to emerge. Such an emergence would be the perfect end to Cheltenham's century.
