FOOTBALL/Championship 2004: Seán Moran on what's in store for the usual (and unusual) suspects

There was a slightly awkward moment in the old House of Lords chamber last Wednesday. At the launch of the Bank of Ireland All-Ireland football championship, the four managers present were asked by MC Micheál Ó Muircheartaigh who - excluding their own side - did they think would win the All-Ireland? No manager really likes that sort of question at this time of the year because there's the danger of offending some as yet unknown opponent and in May who can say what the next four and a half months hold.

With characteristic circumspection - even by the standards of such an occasion - Galway's John O'Mahony said he had no idea. He was partly responding to what must have been - for O'Mahony - a deeply uncomfortable affirmation from Tyrone's Mickey Harte so a modest paean to the champions' hunger was in order. Limerick's Liam Kearns went for Kerry whereas Mick O'Dwyer name-checked them all, eventually coming down in favour of Tyrone.

The point here is that you couldn't imagine a more cautious sample of opinion than managers embarking on the championship and yet they all felt secure in binding and blindfolding Galway, Kerry and Tyrone and handing them over all trussed-up as hostages to fortune. The usual suspects.

For the third year running the above three counties are dominating the betting lists for the All-Ireland. Kerry and Galway are odds-on to win their province and if - anomalously - Tyrone are marginally behind Armagh in Ulster, the champions' All-Ireland odds are around three times tighter.

Armagh broke up the pattern by winning the one All-Ireland not annexed by the cartel in the last four years and they showed extraordinary stamina in returning to the All-Ireland final, but their favouritism in Ulster probably owes more to the suspicion that, as Armagh found, the qualifiers can be the most reliable route back to contention for defending champions.

If the short list for the ultimate prize is so predictable, what does the summer offer to other counties? The provincial titles have become strictly interim goals. For genuine contenders they offer a less complicated path to the All-Ireland series. And for counties on the next level they are an ambition in themselves, but the phenomenon of teams for whom a provincial championship guarantees a memorable year is rare.

Even for the former group of counties the provincial system isn't an unmixed blessing. In Munster and Connacht teams face each other year in and year out in a knockout context, which is made for counties with no higher ambition than derailing the local celebrities. That ambition has been unrealisable for most Munster counties throughout the decades, but it's been fulfilled more often in Connacht where Galway, Mayo and Roscommon always have a chance of beating the other. Perhaps it works on an atavistic level, but it doesn't add to the sense of an ordered or fair competition - one where everyone plays the same number of matches to get to each succeeding level.

Whereas there have been complaints about teams having to play qualifiers within a week of losing a provincial final, a further inequity is that provincial winners have widely varying gaps between winning and playing in the All-Ireland quarter-finals. O'Mahony believes, overall, a bit of variety would benefit the championship.

"I suppose it would. Against that, the disadvantage about a province like Leinster for teams trying to make a breakthrough is that the competition is deeper. The big problem with the provincial system is that you end up meeting the same teams and in a small province you do that more often.

"As a traditionalist, I wouldn't be in favour of getting rid of it and there's still a special feeling for me about a Connacht final, but the novelty you get in the qualifiers isn't there."

O'Mahony's Leitrim were one of the big breakthrough teams when 10 years ago they emerged from Connacht for only the second time in history. To achieve that involved defeating the province's big three so there wasn't an enormous advantage in the field being limited to five.

The small size of Munster hasn't been much help to Limerick, whose improvement in recent years has been the most sustained advancement of any of the weaker counties. The problem is that, although a provincial title is the obvious next step, there are structural barriers according to Liam Kearns.

"For us to win Munster in any year, we have to beat Kerry who are always on the short list of All-Ireland favourites or Cork who aren't far off it a lot of the time. I would say that with the standard we're at, we'd be capable of winning other provinces.

"On the plus side if we're capable of reaching that standard, we're capable of competing at All-Ireland level. Would scrapping the provincial system speed up our rate of progress? I think it probably would."

Certainly, Laois were a rare example last summer of a side delighted with a provincial win, but it's doubtful if retaining the title and getting no further will be as satisfying this time around. So if the range of counties likely to find fulfilment in a provincial final is limited, what else provides motivation?

An appearance at Croke Park for either the later stages of the qualifier rounds or All-Ireland quarter-finals can be sufficient for a memorable season. But that can also depend on the result. Fermanagh got two goes at headquarters last year, but both ended bleakly against Tyrone. It echoes the experiences of Westmeath and Sligo, both of whom reached the last eight only to fall agonisingly short, but have been still unable to make a breakthrough at provincial level that might have maintained the impetus of their improvement.

For counties a level below that the qualifiers haven't made a huge difference. Counties that struggle to compete in the provincial championships are dependent on a lotto-type draw pitching them against one of the very worst sides if they are to eke out their championship for even one more day.

The obvious way of streamlining the competitive structures would be to adopt a blueprint like that drawn up by the Hurling Development Committee and adopted by Congress. That separates the competing counties into three levels, trebling the number of national titles on offer and providing an intrinsic sense of achievement for any team competing at the top level.

Some progress has been made in this regard with the announcement of an All-Ireland B football championship (although presumably it will be given a more inspiring title). Its success will depend on how seriously the eligible counties respond, but, like with the hurling equivalent, the likelihood of that will be enhanced by the undertakings to play the final on a big day in Croke Park, probably the All-Ireland semi-final.

As to what senior teams will contest the semi-finals it's hard to look beyond the three favourites. But the fourth spot could depend on the draw given that Armagh or Tyrone will have to make their way through the qualifiers.

The biggest threats to the status quo are likely to be Cork, who impressed during the league and who will be well drilled by Billy Morgan, and Laois, expertly guided by Mick O'Dwyer, whose self-confidence has rocketed after last year's breakthrough.