Preview Cheltenham Gold Cup: The bigger the field the bigger the certainty may be an old racing cliché but the biggest field in the history of the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup looks to have produced nothing but widespread bemusement.
A total of 24 horses, including four from Ireland, will line up for steeplechasing's blue riband event and the entry alone reflects how open this Gold Cup looks. With no stand out horse dominating, no one wants to be left out of the party.
If there's a consolation for those trying to bet the winner it is a wide open market where Beef Or Salmon heads the trading at a widely available 5 to 1. Time may tell that is a steal of a price for a genuinely top-flight operator at his best. But it still hasn't stopped everyone with a decent chaser whose four legs are in approximately the right places turning up to take him on.
It's precisely the size of the field that may yet become the major stumbling block to Beef Or Salmon's chance rather than any supposed distaste for the Gloucestershire air.
The only other 20 plus field to line up for the Gold Cup since it was first run as a chase in 1924 came in 1982 when 22 faced the tape. Significantly it was the class horse of that race, the double King George winner Silver Buck, who won out, but it doesn't require too much imagination to see a hold up runner like Beef Or Salmon encountering traffic problems. With so some much apparent chaff floating around Paul Carberry faces a massive test of even his cool nerve but if he brings it off it will provoke the sort of Irish celebrations to echo the likes of Imperial Call in 1996 and Dawn Run a further decade back in 1986.
The consolation for the green-eyed patriots around here is that with the National hero Hedgehunter and the up and coming pair of War Of Attrition and Forget The Past also in the field the chances of Ireland's continuing the 10-year sequence must be pretty good.
Hedgehunter does have ground to make up on Beef Or Salmon from Hennessy running last month but significantly was the choice of Ruby Walsh over the Paul Nicholls pair, Cornish Rebel and Royal Auclair. A concern, however, has to be the rather flat form shown by some of the Willie Mullins team this week.
War Of Attrition skipped yesterday's Ryanair Chase to run in the big one and he too has form to find with the favourite from Christmas at Leopardstown. Conor O'Dwyer and Mouse Morris are convinced War Of Attrition is the real deal but there also remain real doubts about the trip. In contrast, Forget The Past won a Grade One over three miles as a novice on gluepot ground and has been a revelation in two starts this spring. Wins at Gowran and Fairyhouse could hardly have been more impressive and they put a Lexus failure behind Beef Or Salmon and War Of Attrition firmly in the shade, especially since he reportedly burst a blood vessel that day.
Michael O'Brien's horses were out of form at the time but are back to their best now and crucially, although Forget The Past hasn't run on good ground since his very first race, the trainer believes it will very much be to his advantage.
Monkerhostin is the main home hope, based principally on a narrow defeat to Kicking King in the King George at Sandown. Today will be an even greater stamina test for the Philip Hobbs- trained horse whose optimum journey before the King George had been thought to be two miles and five around here.
A much bigger threat may come from the main French hope L'Ami. Not many in this field could have carried 11st 7lb into second in the Racing Post Chase and those who dismiss Francois Doumen's horse because of the ground should keep in mind he did run second to Trabolgan in the Newbury Hennessy on good going. However, first preference is still for Forget The Past who looks to be coming into form at the right time and crucially is a young horse on an upward curve.
His wheelchair bound trainer, Michael O'Brien, was denied a Gold Cup opportunity all of 24 years ago when the ante-post favourite Bright Highway was ruled out of the race through injury.
Brian O'Connor's Forecast
1. Forget The Past
2. L'Ami
3. Monkerhostin
