Formbook firmly favours Federer

TENNIS / Australian Open : The statistics are stark for Marcos Baghdatis

TENNIS / Australian Open: The statistics are stark for Marcos Baghdatis. Roger Federer, his opponent in tomorrow's Australian Open denouement, has played in six grand slam finals and won the lot.

He is on a record 51-match winning streak on hard courts, while his number of career titles stands at 34. Baghdatis, with one previous final to his name, which he lost last year in Basle, can only shrug, smile his widest smile and keep dreaming the dream.

"I'm playing amazing tennis and I've just stopped thinking about my opponents and simply tried to be very aggressive," he said yesterday.

"Of course I know that Roger is the best player in the world but I need to go out there and believe in myself and in my ability to adapt my game. I know I can create a lot of good things and it's important I don't suddenly try to change anything just because I am playing Roger."

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The dynamic young Cypriot's run to the final is reminiscent of that achieved by the Brazilian Gustavo Kuerten at Roland Garros in 1997. He entered the French Open that year ranked 66th in the world and stunned the leading clay-court specialists with a series of phenomenal performances that ended in a samba accompanied triumph over Sergi Bruguera on the Bois de Boulogne.

Kuerten, like Baghdatis, was 20, ranked outside the top 50 and in a similar fashion won the hearts of the French, just as Baghdatis has so evidently struck a chord in this city.

"I just like to have fun," he said, although this in no way implies a dilettante approach to the game. Baghdatis is deadly serious, as David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic and Andy Roddick, all top-10 players and all beaten by Baghdatis over the last few days, will testify.

And it has not always been such fun for the boy who left Limassol at 13 to live and and train in Paris.

"It was really tough for me when I became a professional because I didn't have any wild cards and I had to fight my way through all the qualifiers."

But the former world junior number one never lost his self-belief.

"I was expecting one day to be up there and now I'm really happy because I have made a lot of sacrifices. And my family did. The way is long but my objectives are higher now. I know I have to keep my feet on the ground, work hard and I can go even better."

Nonetheless to beat Federer is the tallest of orders. The sole comfort Baghdatis will take into the match is the Swiss has not been at his absolute best, although the last two sets of yesterday's semi-final against Germany's talented but mentally suspect Nicolas Kiefer were close to the sublime form he displayed for most of last year when he lost only four of his 85 matches.

Federer won 6-3, 5-7, 6-0, 6-2 and said, ominously as far as Baghdatis is concerned:

"Finally I got it right, not just for this match but I guess also for the rest of the year. Now I'm excited about the final."

The Swiss had private words with Rod Laver here and, although he has played down the possibility of the calendar grand slam, it is obviously in his mind. Laver achieved it twice.

Federer will have a light hit today and then a few words with his Australian coach Tony Roche to iron out any minor glitches:

"But I guess there's not much I can change now."

He admitted to feeling nervous before playing Kiefer, this despite having won his previous six matches against the German who was playing in his first major semi-final. " I just had sort of a strange feeling. Not a negative one but just like a big excitement because I knew I'm so close to another slam title."

Federer had lost in the semi-finals here last year against Russia's Marat Safin, who went on to become champion, and did not care for that experience at all.

"You work so hard and then to lose in the semis is a big disappointment. So maybe I was a little bit worried about the disappointment. I'd been waiting for the entire tournament to really get nervous and this was the moment."

Just a couple of weeks ago in Doha, Federer beat Baghdatis 6-4, 6-3 in the quarter-finals of the Qatar Open.

"I think we're all surprised he has got so far here because there are other very talented youngsters who I thought would make the break before him," said the world number one.

"But he proved us all wrong. He has beaten quality players and he totally deserves to be in the final.

"Maybe he's changed something in his game, although I don't think so; time is just too short. But it definitely helps me that I've played him already this year, so I know what to expect."

In fact it will be their fourth meeting, Federer having beaten Baghdatis in the fourth round here last year and in the second round of the US Open in 2004. To date the Cypriot has managed only one set and that was in their first match.

Obviously Federer will be the overwhelming favourite to win his seventh major and second Australian Open title, a victory that would put him, at the age of 24, half way towards Pete Sampras's record total.

Baghdatis has hugely enlivened the tournament with his marvellous run and believes that one day he will become the world number one. He also believes he can beat Federer tomorrow.

Guardian Service

Yesterday's Results

MEN'S SINGLES: Semi-final: (1) Roger Federer (Swi) bt (21) Nicolas Kiefer (Ger) 6-3 5-7 6-0 6-2

WOMEN'S DOUBLES: Final: (12) Zi Yan (Chn) and Jie Zheng (Chn) bt (1) Lisa Raymond (USA) and Samantha Stosur (Aus) 2-6 7-6 (9-7) 6-3

MIXED DOUBLES: Semi-final: (6) Daniel Nestor (Can) and Elena Likhovtseva (Rus) bt Leander Paes (Ind) and Nathalie Dechy (Fra) 3-6 6-4 7-6 (10-4), Mahesh Bhupathi (Ind) and Martina Hingis (Swi) bt (5) Paul Hanley (Aus) and Samantha Stosur (Aus) 6-3 6-3.