WHILE some rain is forecast, for England over the weekend one can expect little change in the Cheltenham going which is currently good. It is reasonable therefore to concentrate on the good ground horses and eliminate the known mud larks.

The ante post market suggests that we have the best chance in many years of winning the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup Danoli and Hotel Minella are respectively second and third favourites behind Alderbrook for next Tuesday's Champion Hurdle. Judging by last year's success Alderbrook is the best hurdler we have seen since See You Then completed his hat trick in 1987, but he is essentially a soft ground horse and this will encourage supporters of Danoli and Hotel Minella.

Tom Foley is satisfied that Danoli is equally effective on good or soft ground but Hotel Minella, a speed horse, is crying out for good or fast going. At this stage I would be loath to choose between them.

Providing the underfoot conditions are not transformed by next Thursday, One Man is clearly going to take beating in the Gold Cup. Soft ground will suit the current second favourite Imperial Call, whose trainer Fergie Sutherland is not dismayed by the prospects of good or even fast ground.

All going comes a like to Ladbroke Hurdle winner Dance Beat, whose prospects in Tuesday's Supreme Novice Hurdle are reasonably good. However, she carries a lot more weight than she did at Leopardstown. But she still remains our best chance of winning this event.

Draborgie is the clear favourite in Tuesday's Arkle Challenge Trophy but this former French trained mare, so impressive at Kemplon recently, is best on a soft surface. King Wah Glory will relish fast ground and both Manhattan Castle and Ventana Canyon will be at home on good going.

Such conditions will not inconvenience the current two mile champion Viking Flagship in Wednesday's Queen Mother Champion Chase, but they will be ideal for Sound Man and Strong Platium. I would hesitate to rule out Strong Platinum on the basis of one below par performance at Naas last time out but, at the moment, I would favour Sound Man who goes from strength to strength.

Hotel Minella's trainer Aidan O'Brien must have a first rate chance of winning Wednesday's Sun Alliance Hurdle with Urubande. Soft going was attributed to his narrow defeat at Leopardstown in mid January. Former ante post favourite Mucklemeg has met with a set back and will not run and Noble Thyne will need soft ground, even if he recovers in time from a recent injury.

If the going is good or fast forget Johnny Setaside for the Sun Alliance Chase and the same applies to Wither Or Which in Wednesday's Festival Bumper for which there is considerable fancy for Charlie Foxtrot.

Good ground will suit Derrymoyle for Thursday's Stayers Hurdle on which day Elegant Lord will be strongly fancied for the Foxhunters and Brockley Court for the Grand Annual. The handicap chases and hurdles are another day's work. But if there is a scarcity of Irish bankers among the nine championship races I fail to see any in the handicap races, especially the hurdles.

Three Irish trained winners appears to be the favourite among the ante post layers. We had four winners last year, three the year before and when the going was good six in 1993. Thirteen successes in the last three Festivals was a big improvement on the previous six years which yielded just eight wins.

If I had to have a bet at this stage I would bank on four Irish trained winners, Sound Man, Derrymoyle, Urubande and Elegant Lord.