Jim McGuinness: This could be Patrick McBrearty’s year

The closer we get to this weekend’s semi-finals, the more farcical the whole situation becomes. Surely this is a first for world sport: a format that in all likelihood ensures that a final won’t take place?

Even that fly on the wall at the meeting must have been astonished by the deliberations. ‘So in case of scenarios x, y or z, there won’t be a final. Everyone good with that?’

This has come about because so many counties are playing their first championship match in a fortnight’s time and all such teams have been guaranteed a two-week break to prepare.

I understand the restrictions of Covid but I also see that there was a spare weekend a week ago with no football fixtures. With my coaching hat on, I would have loved a semi-final with the final a week later because of the competitiveness. It would have been a great chance to build fitness, sharpness and a chance to develop your game plan and rotate your squad.

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That’s before factoring in the confidence you’d get from winning it or a semi-final.

How do Kerry and Donegal approach this? Instead of an aggression to progress, surely their minds are now focusing on farther down the road? It hands an advantage to Dublin and Tyrone, who make up the only pairing that can actually play a Division One final.

There are of course no finals possible in Division Two and Four and the possibility remains that there'll be none at all this year. I'm still struggling to get my head around people sitting down and formulating a competition that couldn't be finished. It's unfair on managements and players as well as sponsors as long established as Allianz.

This is all the more regrettable as we have four of the best five teams in the country involved.

Intensity

What can you say about Dublin that hasn’t mostly been said? They have been ticking over in the national league as they always do, mostly at the top table. They have more depth, a phenomenal squad and it’s going to be challenging for Donegal.

I stand by my remarks last week that Dublin are front runners to win the All-Ireland again because they can do it both ways. They do have an exceptional kick-out but there are goalkeepers in Monaghan and Donegal, who are very close to them if not on a par.

They have the attacking prowess, which has been proven over and over again but for me last year the big thing about Dublin is how well-organised they were defensively in terms of their high pressing and how they tactically pressed in the first third and then in the middle third, getting the bodies in and squeezing the opposition, forcing them to the sideline and playing a plus-one at the back.

When defending deep in the last third, they shape themselves, they shape themselves to be very compact, aggressive and disciplined. For me the most important thing that differentiates them from most other teams is their level of intensity. This is basically the number of contacts they make and the number of turnovers they get from those contacts.

Star players are created in championship football. Sometimes it catapults a player to a new standard that he's able to maintain for the rest of his career

For me they have been the best team offensively for a while - which got a little lost in last week’s noise - but they’re also the best team defensively. I feel you need both to win All-Irelands, which is why they’re best placed again this year.

They also have had a slight advantage in that the past two years haven’t been the normal, relentless seasons. Circumstances have handed them a hiatus, down time to replenish and go again.

Remember the conversations last year that it would go against them because of a changing of the guard with both players and management. Instead they looked as good as ever. The reduction in games has been a help.

Donegal have a lot of quality. In a normal season it might have been useful to lose Michael Murphy for a few matches to see how the rest got on but when you've only four fixtures and need to prepare a team for championship, it has to be seen as bad timing to say the least.

I wouldn’t expect to see him this weekend either. I don’t know the extent of his injury but it wouldn’t make a lot of sense, particularly against Dublin on a big pitch with phenomenal athletes in the middle of the park.

Body shape

Looking at Michael against Tyrone, his body shape and condition showed how he has morphed from a full forward’s body to a midfielder’s over the past four or five years. What he’s put himself through to do that because he believes he can control games more effectively from the middle is extraordinary.

Patrick McBrearty is on fire as well and you have to ask will 2021 be his year? Will he be the guy that goes to another level - a level we know is in him? He’s a top talent and a mature player but he hasn’t won an All Star yet. He’s coming to the peak of his powers and I think he’ll have a huge year.

From eight up there’s as much in Donegal as there is in Kerry - and possibly Dublin.

However, there are still question marks hovering over Donegal. A big talking point was the Monaghan game and how exposed the full-back line was and Neil McGee in particular. The concession of four goals wasn’t even the whole story. The whole story was 10 goal chances.

There are also issues around the six position and the half-back line in general. They’re incredibly quick and ready to get forward but how they go against the likes of Howard, Kilkenny and Scully this weekend will be interesting.

How will Ryan McHugh and Mogan handle those types of players physically and in the air? These are the plot lines that will unfold in the weeks ahead.

Kingdom

In many people’s eyes Kerry are the chief pretenders to Dublin’s throne. I’d have Donegal on a par to be honest but Kerry have had a good league campaign.

Paudie Clifford has been a plus, working well with his brother and looking incisive himself. Killian Spillane has really filled out and David Moran continues to be one of the best midfielders of his generation and he has been very ably supported by Diarmuid O'Connor in this league, making a formidable combination.

The star of the show is David Clifford. He's a complete player and looks as though he can carry the pressure. He's incredibly hard to mark. He reminds me of Michael Murphy and Colin Corkery in that he is able to use his size to get out in front and win ball and then spin off either foot.

Are they ready to win an All-Ireland - or to put the question differently are they good enough? I’m not sure for two reasons. Their full-back line has been giving them problems and I’m not sure that’s going to be rectified in time for this championship.

We saw it recently against Dublin: Tadhg Morley getting back-doored by Con O'Callaghan and Paul Murphy getting caught on the edge of the square one-on-one, again with O'Callaghan who was also fouled for a penalty.

Second for me is their kick-out strategy. I feel in big, big games it has cost them even though they always look organised and look to have a plan but there's a difference between plans that unravel in the heat of a match and processes like Stephen Cluxton and Shaun Patton have and which go very deep.

Their technical execution is so good that at times it looks nearly impossible to shut it down. We've seen the same with Rory Beggan. For Kerry it remains a weakness and I'll be watching to see if there's any change.

Hungry

My thoughts on Tyrone haven’t changed a whole lot. Obviously I’ve been interested to see them under new management against Donegal. They were hungry. There was grit and fitness levels were very high. They were looking to evolve the game plan in terms of kicking.

Paul Donaghy’s introduction with 0-10 on his debut was a big boost for the county.

I saw enough in them that day before the sending-off to know that they could be very dangerous in Ulster but like Kerry and Donegal there are clouds hanging over Tyrone as well - similar clouds in that I'm not sure how they will cope with high ball into their full-back line.

Discipline has also been a bit of an issue. Scoring has been their Achilles heel, though. Compare them with the All-Ireland winners of the 2000s: Peter Canavan, Seán Cavanagh, Stephen O'Neill and Owen Mulligan - generational players who had that genius ability to drop the shoulder and go one way or the other.

That’s the standard they’re trying to hit. They can beat most teams on a given day because of the collective. They’re all very good players, winners and finalists at underage and so on. They will be highly coached and tactical. They will get in your face and make life difficult for you but can they win Ulster and go on to win the All-Ireland? I don’t think so.

Who’s leading the attack? Where are the absolute predators? These questions need to be answered. They are building and it will be fascinating to see where it takes them.

Star players are created in championship football. Sometimes it catapults a player to a new standard that he’s able to maintain for the rest of his career. At the inception of a new championship campaign, we’ll be watching to see who these stars turn out to be - and where the ultimate prize is likely to go.