Kerry v Dublin - Croke Park, 3.30 Live RTÉ 1, Sky Sports 5

Somewhere along the way, we’re going to have to apply some science to this thing. So far, it appears the best argument for Kerry prevailing here is that they must. That they have no choice but to arrest a losing streak against Dublin that is getting out of hand. James O’Donoghue has never beaten Dublin in championship; nor have all but six of his teammates. Philly McMahon has never lost to Kerry; ditto all but six of his.

Kerry are going to need a bit more than if-wishes-were-fishes though. This is a Dublin team that hasn’t lost in 26 games. We can take it that at least some of those teams were both motivated to beat them and sufficiently stocked in the belief that it was possible. At a certain point, you’ve got to have a plan that extends to more than simply Be Kerry.

What would that look like?

The team that has pushed Dublin closest during their winning streak is Mayo, who took them to a replay at this stage last year. At various times across those two games, Mayo showed real signs of being able to get at Jim Gavin's team. If there are lessons to draw from the video, Éamonn Fitzmaurice is as prime a candidate as any to find them.

Life begins and ends with Stephen Cluxton’s kick-outs – or so goes the usual reasoning in Kerry. Blithely asserting that you need to push up on them has been shown to be bluster masquerading as wisdom, however. It worked in 2009 but he’s seven years older and better these days. Mayo’s tactic of giving him a corner-back to play short to before clogging Dublin up between the 45s appears a more likely route for Kerry to go.

Flooding bodies

Not alone did it work for Mayo – up to a point, granted – but it would chime with much of how Kerry have set up this summer. Apart from the opening half against Clare in June, when Gary Brennan and friends loped through the centre of the pitch at will, a feature of the Kerry approach has been flooding bodies around the middle looking for turnovers.

This is the road Kerry have so far chosen to go down instead of the sweeper deployed by some teams and the blanket deployed by others. At all costs, they look to spare their defence having to deal with quick ball and runners. In the absence of turnovers, Kerry aren’t sniffy about tactical fouling in that area. Dublin aren’t sniffy about it in any area.

For that reason and more, it will be interesting to see what David Gough's policy on early yellow cards is. Three players on the pitch are a black card or two yellows away from missing the final – Jonny Cooper for Dublin, Peter Crowley and Shane Enright for Kerry. There might have to be some careful stepping while the game settles down.

Like any team facing Dublin these days, Kerry have two tasks here. One is to stay in the game, the other is to win it.

Under Gavin, Dublin have been involved in 16 games in league and championship that were decided by a goal or less; they have lost only four. Sometimes they are fitter than the teams they come up against but not always. Most times, they just think clearer.

Against Donegal, they played out the closing 25 minutes without five All Stars and still didn’t buckle. We take it on trust that Kerry are better than Donegal – but even if they are, Dublin will surely improve beyond that performance too.

In the end, the known knowns point to a reasonably straight-forward Dublin victory. It will take a Kerry display for the ages to spring a surprise. And even that may not be enough.

The Lowdown

Last meeting: September 18th 2015, All-Ireland final, Croke Park – Dublin 0-12 Kerry 0-9

Injuries: Kerry have Colm Cooper back available after missing the quarter-final; Dublin say James McCarthy is fit – although they said that too before the quarter-final he missed .

Betting: Dublin 2/5, Kerry 5/2, Draw 11/1

Tickets: Sold Out

KERRY: Brian Kelly; Shane Enright, Mark Griffin, Killian Young; Brian Ó Beaglaoich, Peter Crowley, Tadhg Morley; Kieran Donaghy, David Moran; Paul Murphy, Colm Cooper, Donnchadh Walsh; Stephen O'Brien, Paul Geaney, James O'Donoghue.

DUBLIN: Stephen Cluxton; Philly McMahon, Jonny Cooper, David Byrne; James McCarthy, Cian O'Sullivan, John Small; Denis Bastick, Brian Fenton; Paul Flynn, Paul Mannion, Ciaran Kilkenny; Dean Rock, Diarmuid Connolly, Bernard Brogan

Referee: David Gough (Meath).

Verdict: Dublin