Good case can be made for Catch Me's chances

Aran Concerto has been the popular "Irish banker" bet for the entire festival in today's Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle …

Aran Concerto has been the popular "Irish banker" bet for the entire festival in today's Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle but if Barry Geraghty secures a smooth passage for Catch Me he may well present Ireland's best chance of a second-day winner.

The hypercritical, of course, will focus on the word "if", because when Catch Me and Aran Concerto clashed in last month's Deloitte at Leopardstown, Geraghty somehow managed to find the one place in the race he shouldn't have been.

Jumping the second-last that day, the former dual-champion jockey decided to challenge on the outside of Aran Concerto's stable companion Leading Run, who had jumped to his right in the race.

The resultant collision was as frustrating as it was inevitable because Catch Me's exit robbed us of a true trial for this afternoon.

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Aran Concerto proceeded to win smoothly and maintain Noel Meade's belief he is potentially the best he has ever trained, but in reality the jury is still out on the pair's merits.

Catch Me was still travelling strongly when he exited, and at the odds available, a good argument can be made for where the value lies.

No rider will be more focused on the job than Geraghty, who in fairness held his hands up after the Deloitte and whose famously dismissive attitude to big-race pressure will be a major plus to Catch Me's chances today.

Equally certain, his trainer, Edward O'Grady, will be expectant because ever since the horse arrived from Germany last year, he has quietly believed him to be well out of the ordinary.

With an outstanding festival record under his belt, such belief has to be respected.

As does Noel Meade's regard for Aran Concerto but it won't have helped the horse's chances that Paul Carberry is at his home nursing a sore leg, leaving Tony McCoy with the responsibility of steering the "banker". That won't bother McCoy, but his unfamiliarity with Aran Concerto could be an issue.

Silverburn appears to be the main home hope but his Tolworth Hurdle defeat of Perce Rock is hardly a frightening piece of form in the Irish novice context so it would be no surprise to see a pair of old rivals get it on for real today.

Almost everyone's festival banker will be up after that as Denman tries to justify what appear to be almost stratospheric levels of confidence in the SunAlliance Chase. The horse's part owner, Harry Findlay, has backed him to win a colossal amount of money in ante-post betting and has loudly proclaimed any odds against price to be the bet of any year.

Many will be hoping for Findlay's sake alone that Denman comes up that hill alone. But he was equally well-fancied for the big hurdle on this corresponding day last year and found one too good.

What that looked to prove is Denman has any number of talents but a burst of finishing speed is not one of them.

What is good news for Findlay is he may be long gone from his 16 opponents before that's needed.

It is significant though such a large field takes him on, including eight Irish runners headed by the dual Grade One winner Cailin Alainn.

The big worry with her is that a nasty fall here in January may have shaken her confidence. Gazza's Girl's chance would have been better on even softer ground so the best of the visitors should be Snowy Morning.

Willie Mullins's team have been making increasingly confident noises about his chance, and the trainer is a double SunAlliance winner with Florida Pearl (1998) and Rule Supreme (2004.)

But the confidence around Denman is infectious enough to justify jumping on the bandwagon.

Irish horses have won 11 of the 14 runnings of the Weatherbys Champion Bumper and Mullins has notched up five of them. Today he is triple-handed, with Mad Fish regarded as the best of them.

It's hard to ignore the fact Aranleigh, trained by Tony Mullins, did beat Mad Fish when they clashed at Fairyhouse.

And those looking for a big-priced option could do worse than check out the mare Shirley Casper, who has Grade Two winning form.

Owner Malcolm Denmark had his colours carried to victory in 1999 aboard Monsignor and this time has the unbeaten Den of Iniquity to support.

It's encouraging the trainer Carl Llewellyn makes one of his rare riding appearances on the horse and there looks to be every chance of a rare home win.

Nicky Henderson runs three in the Coral Cup and his decision to switch the apparent outsider of the trio, All Star, from tomorrow's Jewson Chase could pay off, although his stable companion Royals Darling would also have a big shout at his best.

Selections

2.00 Catch Me (nap)

2.35 Denman

4.00 All Star

4.40 Lou Du Moulin Mas

5.20 Den Of Iniquity (double)