FORMULA ONE ABU DHABI GRAND PRIX: Justin Hynestries to shed some light on a confusing championship picture ahead of tomorrow's final race

HEADING INTO the championship-deciding Abu Dhabi Grand Prix weekend the vast amount of title projections centred on just how Fernando Alonso could lose the drivers’ championship to Red Bull Racing’s Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel or how he will walk away with a third title in his first season at Ferrari.

Largely forgotten in the computations was Lewis Hamilton. Little wonder. Though mathematically in contention, the McLaren driver, 24 points adrift of Alonso and fourth in the standings, would need the rather improbable result of a race win, a non-finish from Alonso and second-placed Webber to be no higher than sixth if he is to claim a second drivers’ title. Best to write him out of an already confusing championship picture.

Hamilton, though, refused to exit quietly stage left and though his chances of landing the big prize are more than remote, his surge to the top of the free practice timesheets yesterday afternoon makes the battle between Alonso and his Red Bull rivals an even more complex affair.

A Hamilton victory on Sunday would leave second the best Webber could hope for. The points gained for that would leave him needing Alonso to finish lower than sixth.

For Vettel second would do it, but only if Alonso finishes ninth or lower and Webber is fifth or lower. Beyond that the permutations are endless, a situation acknowledged by McLaren boss Martin Whitmarsh who admitted Hamilton’s only target could be to win the race.

“For Lewis it’s very simple,” he said. “He just has to focus on winning the race. That’s all he can do. Thereafter he has to depend on others. I think he’s pretty relaxed but focused. He knows he has to win. And after all, we’ve won world titles on the last few corners before so we just have to keep pushing.”

This time out though there is, realistically, little chance of Hamilton repeating his 2008 title win, in which he passed the faltering Toyota of Timo Glock on the final bend of the final race, at Interlagos, to claim the fifth place he needed to deny race winner Felipe Massa the crown.

Win or not, Hamilton is likely to have to gaze into his rearview mirror to get a glimpse of the 2010 champion, with Vettel, in particular, confident there is more to come from his RB6 car in this afternoon’s qualifying session.

“Overall, I’m pretty happy,” said Vettel, who is 15 points behind championship leader Alonso. “There is a bit of lap time still to gain. We were always pretty close so it looks quite good, but tight – in the late evening Ferrari looked competitive and McLaren too. Hopefully we can pick up some pace and then be a bit ahead tomorrow.”

Vettel’s chances too are largely dependent on what happens around him. A victory would give him the title, but only if Alonso finishes in fifth or lower, so as with Hamilton, it’s almost win or bust for the German.

It is, perhaps, Webber who has the most to lose. The Australian has seen an 11-point lead four races ago turn into an eight-point deficit as Alonso has clawed his way back into the title fight and the 34-year-old heads into this race facing the very real prospect that what could be his last real chance of title glory will slip away.

Webber was insistent nerves are not a factor. “I slept like a baby last night, and I’m ready to go again tonight,” he said.

“You can only do what you can do – (to me) it feels like (season opener) Bahrain in terms of the engineering and the car, so it is a normal weekend but there is a lot more at stake this weekend, so that is the only thing that has changed. You cannot try any harder.”

Which just leaves Alonso, in control of the title race, comfortably on the pace as he split the Red Bulls yesterday and, mentally looking like a champion elect. “Our only picture at the moment is winning the race or finishing second; that is the target and I think that is what we can achieve,” said the Spaniard on Thursday.

When asked to speculate on a scenario in which if he was racing in third tomorrow how he would feel if a race-leading Vettel was to allow Webber past, thus emulating the team orders imposed by Ferrari on Felipe Massa at the German Grand Prix in July to give Alonso seven of the eight points he currently heads the Australian by.

Alonso smiled. “I don’t think I will lose even one second of my energy thinking about what is going to happen on Sunday,” he said.

In It To Win It: Standings & Permutations

Drivers' Championship

1 F Alonso (Spa) Ferrari 246pts

2 M Webber (Aus) Red Bull 238

3 S Vettel (Ger) Red Bull 231

4 L Hamilton (Brit) McLaren 222

5 J Button (Brit) McLaren 199

6 F Massa (Bra) Ferrari 143

7 N Rosberg (Ger) Mercedes GP 130

8 R Kubica (Pol) Renault 126

9 M Schumacher (Ger) Mercedes GP 72

10 R Barrichello (Bra) Williams 47

(Points are awarded as follows: 1st place 25 points; 2nd 18pts; 3rd 15pts; 4th 12pts; 5th 10pts; 6th 8pts; 7th 6pts; 8th 4pts; 9th 2pts; 10th 1pt)

Constructors' Championship

1 RedBull - Renault 469pts

2 McLaren - Mercedes 421

3 Ferrari 389

4 Mercedes 202

5 Renault 145

Permutations – What each has to do to win the 2010 Drivers' Championship

Alonso– If he finishes in the top two he'll be champion, regardless of where his three rivals finish. If Webber wins, Alonso must finish second. If Webber is second, and as long as Vettel does not win, Alonso must finish at least fifth. If Webber finishes third, and as long as Vettel does not win, Alonso must finish at least sixth. If Vettel wins, Alonso must finish at least fourth. If Vettel finishes second, and as long as Webber is not first, third or fourth, Alonso must finish at least eighth.

Webber– He has to finish in the top five to have any chance of taking the title. If Webber wins, Alonso cannot finish any higher than third. If Webber is second, Alonso cannot finish any higher than sixth and Vettel must not win.

Vettel– He has to finish in the top two to have any chance of taking the title. If Vettel wins, Alonso cannot finish any higher than fifth. If Vettel finishes second, Alonso cannot finish any higher than ninth and Webber no higher than fifth.

Hamilton– He has to win, hope Alonso does not score, with Webber no higher than sixth and Vettel no higher than third.

Level on points– How about this for a scenario? Vettel wins, Webber is second and Alonso fifth, ensuring all finish tied on points. With Vettel and Alonso then tied on five wins apiece to Webber's four, Vettel would take the title on countback by virtue of more fourth-placed finishes over Alonso.