DEFENCES, say the cognoscenti, win leagues and who are we to argue? A well balanced midfield helps too, of course, as does a deep pool of players. All the same, a handy thing to have is the league's most predatory marksman.
Statistically, a club is half way there with one of those - no matter where you start as a reference point. Eight times in 15 seasons dating back to 1980, the leading goal scorer has came from the title winning team. Though the last two seasons have bucked the trend, four times in the previous five years the same was true.
The leading goal scorer tag also carries a certain interest and kudos all of its own. This time it comes with further goodies - £1,000 for the Premier Division's top marksman (and £500 for the First Division equivalent) as part of Harp's sponsorship package. All for the players' pool, naturally.
This season the top marksman appears even harder to predict than the outcome of the title. Stephen Geoghegan, twice the leading scorer in the last three seasons, has, understandably, been installed as early favourite, at 9 to 4, by Paddy Powers bookmakers, though the rest of the odds (5 to 1 bar) reflects the openness of the field.
Geoghegan achieved the feats as a partner to Terry Eviston three years ago at Rovers and when ploughing a lone furrow last season.
Thus, Pat Morley's arrival need not necessarily mean less of a share for him this term. An excellent finisher with his right foot - he also scores a fair few with his head - Geoghegan is also a linkman, blessed with superb feet and, at 26 years, should be at his prime, with the tag of striker of the 1990s his for the taking.
However he has yet to find the net this season. He looks a tad jaded and is carrying a few knocks, undoubtedly the product of too much football representative duty with the National League until June, early pre season training with Shelbourne allied to Euro involvement and their normal number of friendlies ensuring he hasn't had a proper break for over a year.
For Shelbourne folk, Pat Morley, at 20 to 1, might look a good each way saver against Geoghegan not finding his best form and perhaps better value than the creator par excellence Tony Sheridan at 12 to 1. The goals haven't flowed so much for the 30 year old Morley since the 20 goal haul that set him apart in 1992-93 but new surrounds and a better service from Shelbourne may rejuvenate him.
Ricky O'Flaherty and Derek Swan are joint second favourites at 5 to 1. Some people expect O'Flaherty to be something of a one season wonder, overlooking the fact that his 13 coals last season equalled his tally with Galway the campaign before. His hunger looks undiminished.
The St Patrick's saver would suppose, have to be Eddie Gormley at 20 to 1.
Swan, reborn since his return to Bohemians the season before last has two to his name already and could well better his dozen strikes from last season though once again, his share may be reduced by Bohemians' apparent ability to score from almost anywhere.
Besides which, the slightest knock or suspension is a risky business at Dalymount this season, where five proven strikers are vying for two places including the 1990-91 hotshot Peter Hanrahan. Though nominally a winger, Brian Mooney (who scored six last term despite missing nine games) also has two goals to his name already and could be the Bohemians' each way saver at 12 to 1.
The youngest upstart, 21 year old Mick O'Byrne, having equalled his own UCD club record of 14 last season, is fourth favourite at 6 to 1. He would have been my bet but for the knee injury which may ultimately sideline him for four to six weeks. Hence better odds than 6 to 1 await.
Elsewhere, the most tempting odds concern the Sligo trio of Padraig Moran (14 last season) Ian Gilzean (12) and James Mulligan, although perhaps it's harder for one to emerge from three.
Mulligan would be a great bet at 20 to 1 if he could improve his finishing by 10 or 20 per cent. The Billy Bunter lookalike is devilishly quick, in good form and is ensured a good service from the flanks (Johnny Kenny and Moran) as well as the ensuing knock downs and lay offs from Gilzean.
Getting into scoring positions is not his problem but too often converting them is. He could conceivably have had six against St Patrick's on Friday (including a saved penalty) instead of one. Then again, he has already joined UCD's Andy Myler on top of the chart with three goals.
At Derry, both Liam Coyle (likely to miss the first nine or 10 games anyway) and Gary Beckett are more providers than predators. This could mean a prolific season for Sean Hargan, though it would be no surprise if one of Derry's midfielders, Peter Hutton or James Keddy, was their top scorer.
One of Shamrock Rovers recurring problems post Geoghegan has been a reliable goalscorer and, good players though they are, none of the current quartet boasts a particularly high strike rate. Finn Harps' Jonathan Speak, record Premier Division scorer nine years ago, has the best credentials of the promoted pack.
Conclusion? Stephen Geoghegan remains the best, if not the most attractive, value at 9 to 4, with 20 to 1 about Mulligan and Morley making more appeal. But there may well be better ways of getting rich quickly.
