ANALYSIS:Munster and Toulouse have the class and experience to survive tricky assignments

THESE ARE two remarkably similar semi-finals. Two sides are experiencing new territory but the big advantage for them, and what gives them some sort of a chance of causing an upset, is that they're at home. I'd say if London Irish and Saracens were away, you'd be loading heavily on Toulouse and Munster.

I still think Munster and Toulouse are the favourites but the fact London Irish and Saracens are at home means they'll have the backing of their crowd and that could inspire them on the first time they're experiencing this occasion.

Even though Toulouse have won this tournament three times and have lots of experience of occasions like this, they're not the best of travellers.

It's that French factor sometimes, and with London Irish not being seen as one of the big English sides, you could possibly envisage Toulouse not being as motivated as if they were playing Wasps or Toulouse, or were in the final.

They've also been ravaged by injuries and the length of the French season remains a real issue for them. When you think of the two- month preparation for the World Cup last summer it's been a massively long season for them, and it's still to go to the end of June!

London Irish are a reasonably balanced side; they've got pace on the wings, a big physical forward pack and an excellent lineout. And they have a very aggressive defence, which traditionally French sides struggle against.

It's something they're not used to encountering in their own championship and it often does unsettle the French.

They find it very difficult to get away from that style of game that they want. Normally French teams are aligned very wide and very deep, and they run quite hard onto the ball, and against teams that run a slightly less aggressive defence they get the opportunity to make offloads. That's when they're so dangerous, but you can put them under a lot of pressure as well.

In the week before Wales played France we practised a lot on tackling quite high on the ball and stopping those offloads. They're quite tall players, like Yannick Jauzion, and they like to free their arms up quite a bit.

I thought Cardiff didn't apply enough pressure on Jean-Baptiste Elissalde. He's very much a confidence, front-foot player, but he's not that big and if I were London Irish, I'd be going very heavily there.

London Irish have a good outside chance of an upset. They'll have a big crowd supporting them in their home city, the bodhráns will be playing, and you might get a few Munster fans coming along to cheer them and take in both games over the weekend.

Like Toulouse, but even more so, Munster have the calmness that's needed for the big occasion. You don't panic, you're not fazed, you don't let the occasion get to you, which can happen to a team reaching this stage for the first time.

Their quarter-final win in Gloucester was a fantastic performance; probably one of the most clinical performances I've seen from a side in a long time.

As you saw in that game, they're quite prepared to soak up pressure. They know there'll be times when the opposition will have a bit of dominance, but they wait and wait patiently for their chance, and that's what Munster do so well.

When they put that jersey on you can see what it means to them, and I know achieving success doesn't just mean a lot to the players, it means a lot to Munster rugby and to their supporters, who really dig deep into their pockets.

The players are really aware of that and don't take that for granted.

Rua Tipoki, Lifeimi Mafi and Doug Howlett have given them something extra and as the weather improves they'll become even better. They've all got good footwork and they're good on top of the ground.

And the thing about their pack is that they don't make many mistakes. They've been around a long time, they know what to do on the big occasion and they're very clinical in doing their basics well.

Saracens had a great win at home against the Ospreys, but you can see the emotional impact that game had on their players when they were badly beaten in their next two games, against Gloucester and Wasps. But, in saying that, you know that Saracens, like London Irish, have got some quality and they are capable of doing it on the day.

They'll probably have trained well, they'll be pumped up, the adrenaline will be high and if they get a couple of kicks, and a couple of refereeing decisions, they can build momentum.

Alan Gaffney has done a good job with Saracens. I used to think of them as pretty flighty in the past. They bought a lot of big-name players but never really gelled together as a side. To me, they appear a lot more harmonious and together now.

Another big motivating factor for Saracens and London Irish is they probably need to win this tournament to get back into it next year.

A Munster-Toulouse final would be a great conclusion to the tournament, as a rugby spectacle, for the type of rugby they'd bring to the final and the supporters. I'd like to see them make it because they bring consistency to the competition as well.

I think it will be the final but, and I know I'm hedging my bets here, because of home advantage I wouldn't be that surprised if either Saracens or London Irish sprang a surprise.

In an interview with Gerry Thornley