Armenia will be cavalier and their form suggests they will arrive believing victory is possible, writes PAT FENLON

LET’S PUT some context to tonight: we are playing Armenia on our own patch. That’s how this, admittedly huge, match should be viewed.

At any other time we would expect to win comfortably. Yes, there are extenuating circumstances this time around – a place in the play-offs being dependent on gaining at least a point, which is difficult for the collective psyche to overcome.

Armenia’s amazing run of form must be considered. Their last three competitive results have to be respected: 3-0 in Andorra, 4-0 in Slovakia and a 4-1 demolition of Macedonia at home.

There is no distinct pattern to the goals either. They can score from anywhere.

They will be cavalier and their form suggests they will arrive fully believing victory is possible.

For the Republic of Ireland, it will be about weathering the storm and hoping something disastrous doesn’t occur near the end when there won’t be enough time to salvage a result. It has happened to us before and can happen again.

So yes, we are forewarned but I still firmly believe the players can adopt the attitude that tonight’s opponents are only ranked 44th in the world – despite their remarkable scoring rate. That is not arrogance, it is just a confidence in our own ability.

They will know how to play against us. The blueprint is out there now for picking apart Giovanni Trapattoni’s Ireland: flood the midfield for starters and then retain possession. The latter is not overly difficult against us and it will prove a crucial factor in tonight’s result.

We must hold onto the ball. Otherwise, it will quickly develop into another backs-to-the-wall evening. Like Moscow. It borders on humiliation to have to go through that at home against a team with no long-term pedigree.

Robbie Keane’s loss, although massive, due to the goals he has scored down through the years in these type of games, is offset by Richard Dunne’s return.

Richard is a leader so that void will be filled. Shay Given will also provide the necessary pre-game motivational words. Damien Duff will also take responsibility now Keane is gone – it is in his nature. The same can be said of Kevin Doyle and John O’Shea.

If they all perform and the team starts well as a collective unit, I will settle in my seat. But, right now, I am not so confident.

My major concern is Trapattoni’s preference for Simon Cox over Shane Long.

It isn’t a surprise because he has done it before in significant competitive matches. He has his favourites and clearly he believes Cox is a better player than Long.

I disagree. I think Shane will lead the line for a long time and will eventually be recognised as a better striker than Cox and Doyle. He just needs the opportunity to shine in a green jersey. Long’s form at club level should also demand inclusion tonight, but we know that is not how the Italian picks his starting XI.

Maybe he sees Cox as a distinctly different player to Doyle and Long, who are both more comfortable chasing after balls in behind the defence. Cox is more natural coming out and getting it played into feet. But Ireland don’t play that way. When have we seen an intricate build-up that finishes at a front man’s feet? Two men like Doyle and Long chasing Armenians down would be enjoyable to witness. They would feed off each other too.

I hope I’m wrong as I have nothing against Cox who has done well for Ireland, I just think it is a peculiar decision.

Another big call was to play Keane at all in Andorra. If he wasn’t right, that was the time to hold him back. I know for certain that his passion for the jersey would override everything so it was probably incumbent upon the manager to make the decision for the greater good.

We should be delighted to need only a draw against Armenia at home yet that enthusiasm simply isn’t there at the moment because we have not shown enough form to beat the good sides.

We won’t go out looking for a draw – not initially anyway. We will set out to win it but it will be a cautious approach. That means looking to Aiden McGeady and Duff to create the chances for Doyle and Cox.

The worries I and everyone I’ve talked to have are the same: we’ve been lucky many times during this campaign. Some of the results have been off the wall. Most have fallen in our favour. It is nicely set up for us considering what Russia did to us over 180 minutes.

Maybe we have a lucky manager. I’m praying that’s the case anyway.

Trapattoni deserves some luck on the international stage. He certainly didn’t have any with Italy at the 2002 World Cup. Then there was Thierry Henry.

Everyone wants redemption for that night. It will only come after a performance of substance.

There is a big prize on offer. That should drive the players on.