If the big guns misfire they'll be within range

At the beginning of the year most people would have predicted that Armagh and Tyrone would have made the quarter-finals of the…

At the beginning of the year most people would have predicted that Armagh and Tyrone would have made the quarter-finals of the Bank of Ireland All-Ireland Football Championship, but Mayo and Fermanagh might not have been pencilled in on everyone's list.

The latter pair are unquestionably there on merit and have progressed to this stage of the championships with some style. This is particularly apparent in Mayo's case, as they have steamrolled past both Galway and Roscommon on their way to a Connacht title.

The Mayo-Tyrone encounter should be a cracking contest, a huge test for both teams, and whoever emerges from this clash will be genuine All-Ireland contenders. Mayo enter the match with a young, talented team, blessed with plenty of pace and capable of a high scoring rate. They have scored 2-31 and only conceded 1-18 - underpinning the assertion that they have a mean defence to go with their other attributes.

The biggest question mark is whether they can get enough ball into the full-forward line, their primary scoring threat, especially Conor and Trevor Mortimer.

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Kieran McDonald is hardly likely to be afforded much room given he'll be identified as the player who orchestrates the supply from the half-forward line. He'll be facing his biggest test this season.

The challenge for Mayo will be to remain calm and focused, despite the full-house atmosphere at Croke Park. Tyrone will have no such problems, given the venue has become almost like a second home over the past couple of seasons.

One handicap that Tyrone must hurdle is the time factor, as six days is hardly the ideal preparation to a big game. In the Laois game, the Ulster side shipped a number of injuries, notably Pascal McConnell, their first-choice goalkeeper, and Eoin Mulligan, who limped off. It was a little bit of a surprise that Peter Canavan wasn't introduced the last day. If he does have to come on then he's bound to be a little rusty.

Tyrone have definitely recovered from the beating they received from Donegal in the Ulster Championship, showing all the qualities of an excellent team ethic in the last couple of matches. There's a lot of unselfish running off the ball, good option-taking and laying off possession when appropriate. The pack mentality in hunting defensively compensates for any perceived weakness in the full-back line.

The midfield duo of Kevin Hughes and Seán Cavanagh have been dominating in recent matches, particularly against their highly rated counterparts in Laois the last day. Mayo's midfield pairing of David Brady and Ronan McGarrity will have to play out of their skins to gain any parity here. If they don't, then the lifeline is cut off to the scoring forwards. That is a major battlefront.

A lack of physical strength may be another problem for Mayo. This Tyrone team is farther along their developmental curve in terms of upper-body strength. Mayo's Conor Moran, Peadar Gardiner, Alan Dillon, Conor Mortimer and Brian Moloney are very talented players but don't have the physical attributes yet.

How Mayo cope with Tyrone's blanket defence will be interesting. Moloney, Dillon and Gill will probably play out around midfield and the half-back line rather than up front. It will be intriguing to see who picks up Brian Dooher, who ranges all over the pitch.

Mayo must try and keep possession, but are faced with the conundrum that the best way of beating the blanket defence is to kick long and early to their full-forward line.

I anticipate a Tyrone win because of the physical strength factor and in expectation of the Ulster men dominating possession around the midfield area. However, whoever wins this game, it won't be a shock. Tyrone are obvious favourites, but Mayo have played some excellent, high-quality football in the build-up to this match.

In the other game, Armagh are strong favourites against Fermanagh, not least for their performances this season. There is a real purpose and conviction to the way they are playing and a hunger to wrest the Sam Maguire from their neighbours, Tyrone. Fermanagh have in many respects been the team of the championship. They have overcome so many obstacles and will have no inhibitions having put away teams like Meath, Cork and Donegal, starting all those matches as underdogs.

They have shown huge resilience to the loss of players. Everyone continues to write them off, but they have won their matches and played stylish football to boot.

Players like Barry Owens, Stephen Maguire, Colm Bradley and Martin McGrath have been inspirational. Armagh, though, have looked a lot sharper this year than last and are not the team to show complacency.

I'll have to take the reigning All-Ireland champions and the previous incumbents, Tyrone and Armagh, to emerge from today's quarter-finals.