INTERNATIONAL RUGBY:OF THIS month's internationals today's offering may not have captured the public's imagination, and as must-win games go it remains something of a no-win for Ireland. But after four successive defeats they'll be grateful for any chance to push themselves over the winning line and remove that monkey from their backs.
Declan Kidney may have made 10 changes, but the age profile and Test-match experience of the starting team (average age 28.3, caps 647) and the presence of Brian O’Driscoll and Jamie Heaslip underlines how the coach is not inclined to take chances. That much was re-enforced by the composition of a heavy-hitting bench.
The indications are this Irish team is straining at the leash.
“We know the areas that we need to improve,” said Kidney yesterday. “My only concern is that they are so keen to get it right, and we just have to temper that keenness and have the belief in ourselves and keep doing what they’re doing in training. But it’s nearly too much effort, if anything, and that’s the one thing we have to temper.”
The lack of atmosphere for their over-priced Homecoming to Lansdowne Road a week ago clearly deflated the team, but that experience might even help today.
“Well, you work on the things that you can control,” said Kidney. “If one person turns up to watch our job will be to play to the best of our ability in front of that one person. But I also believe we have huge support, and televisions will be watched; there’ll be analysis, people will be reading your articles, people will discuss it, people look forward to watching us play, and it would be brilliant if they were in the stadium and the stadium was full. But if it’s just one person, we’ll play to the best of our ability.”
And the captain admitted: “Obviously the bigger the crowds watching and the bigger the stage heightens anticipation. But Test match rugby is Test match rugby, I love it and I don’t like being left out of the team at any stage.”
That brought a knowing smile from Kidney alongside him.
Acknowledging the physicality of the Samoans and opponents “who are capable of putting a hole through you when you run directly at them,” O’Driscoll added: “You have to be very aware of the shooters that can come out of their defence on certain occasions and just play a little bit smarter at times.
“If their line speed is huge, put the ball in behind them, but at the same time (do) not be afraid to play yourselves, provided the conditions allow you.”
But the forecast is reasonable.
One imagines that, following the meeting IRB referees chief Paddy O’Brien had with all the November officials last Monday in Dublin, the relatively little known Kiwi Keith Brown will be more rigid in ensuring tacklers release quickly, the hindmost foot law is obeyed and chasers don’t advance from in front of the kicker.
Thus, Peter Stringer’s timing could be perfect giving his form is as good as at any stage for a few years, and while Ireland will assuredly produce a vastly better kicking game – in particular at outhalf – all in all this could be a pretty fluid game.
Although Samoa lost 43-5 to France in November last year, they also extended Wales to a 17-13 win at the start of their tour and, as Kidney points out, they have seven of the pack which beat Fiji 31-9 in Apia to clinch their first Pacific Nations Cup last June. They probably have a better team today, with several big-hitting, dynamic players from European clubs, such as George Stowers, Seilala Mapasua, and the wings, Alesana Tuilagi and David Lemi.
They’ll start off with lots of enthusiasm, they’ll put in some big hits and, with their eye for a chance, pace, offloading and superb support play, they’ll have an ability to strike from anywhere, most notably off turnovers or broken play.
Nonetheless, this looks a well-balanced, grizzled Irish side, with plenty of them in form and hungry, be it the 10 promoted players or Luke Fitzgerald wearing his favoured number 15 jersey for the first time. Some, such as Paddy Wallace against Mapasua, may have more meaningful tests than others.
Ireland ought to have much firmer building blocks than a week ago in terms of their set-pieces, especially in the lineout. With Devin Toner (Lansdowne’s 100th capped player) thus potentially set for a strong debut, it would be encouraging an increase in tempo.
If Ireland’s set-pieces are solid and they hold onto the ball through the phases, they should gradually subdue the Samoans’ ardour and the gaps should start to open. And, if they sample an overdue winning groove and the heavyweight bench is called into action, there should be no let-up.
Ireland haven’t become a bad side, and with the men in black on the horizon, as footnotes in history go this could be a significant little turning point.
Ireland: L Fitzgerald (Leinster); T Bowe (Ospreys), B O'Driscoll (Leinster, capt), P Wallace (Ulster), A Trimble (Ulster); R O'Gara (Munster), P Stringer (Munster); T Court (Ulster), S Cronin (Connacht), J Hayes (Munster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), D Toner (Leinster), D Leamy (Munster), S O'Brien (Leinster), J Heaslip (Leinster).
Replacements: Rory Best (Ulster), Cian Healy (Leinster), Donnacha Ryan (Munster), Stephen Ferris (Ulster), Isaac Boss (Leinster), Jonathan Sexton (Leinster), Keith Earls (Munster)
Samoa: P Williams (Sale), D Lemi (Wasps), G Pisi (Taranaki), S Mapusua (London Irish), A Tuilagi (Leicester), T Lavea (Clermont) K Fotualii (Canterbury), S Taulafo (Wasps), M Schwalger (Taranaki, capt), A Perenise (Hawkes Bay), F Lavea Levi (Newcastle), K Thompsen (Southland), O Trevarinus (Malie, Samoa), M Salavea (Narbonne), G Stowers (London Irish).
Replacements: S Fualau (Clermont), S Lemalu (Counties Manukau), I Tekori (Castres), A Aiono (Leulumoega, Samoa), J Poluleuligaga (Exeter), G Williams (Clermont), J Helleur (Auckland).
Previous results: (2003) Samoa 14 Ireland 40 (Apia); (2001) Ireland 35 Samoa 8 (Dublin); (1996) Ireland 25 Samoa 40 (Dublin); (1998) Ireland 49 Samoa 22 (Dublin).
Betting: 1/33 Ireland, 33/1 Draw, 10/1 Samoa. Handicap odds (Samoa + 21 pts) 10/11 Ireland, 45/1 Draw, 10/11 Samoa.
Forecast: Ireland to win, but won't beat the spread.
