RUGBY: Here it is. A moment, or more precisely, a match of truth. This always loomed as the defining game of both Ireland's and Wales' season.

Indeed, that appears to be even truer now. Come the final whistle, two campaigns are set to travel in opposite directions. For the winners, onwards and upwards. For the losers, a bout of navel contemplation amid plenty of heat from the public.

Such has been the bizarre build-up that, curiously, Scott Johnson, Wales' caretaker coach, and his players, appear to be under more pressure in his first game than Eddie O'Sullivan is in his 52nd (or 50th, if one excludes the summer Tests in Japan when his control was more remote). Not that the Australian remotely conveys this impression.

The drama in the Wales camp of the last two weeks has placed more of the spotlight on them, so that they are playing not just for two points in the RBS Six Nations, not even for themselves and the new coach they clearly adore, but for the hearts and minds of a divided, distrustful rugby nation.

"I think we're under the microscope more so than in any game I've ever played in during my career," admitted openside flanker Martyn Williams. "We know the knives are going to be out for us if we lose, whether we like it or not, so it's up to us to deliver the goods on Sunday."

Coupled with the intellectual rugby snobbery which sniffed at their Grand Slam success last year - despite it being a thrilling breath of fresh air - this seems like siege mentality taken to a new level.

Nonetheless, Ireland's and Eddie O'Sullivan's need for a big performance and a restorative win, at home and as favourites, is almost as acute.

O'Sullivan has had his tactical coups - for example, Twickenham two years ago - but a price seems to be that, not for the first time in his tenure, the Irish players stuck a tad too rigidly to the gameplan in Paris.

Contrary to the party line, in the last half hour they appeared to abandon the plan for long skip passes to bypass the French blitz defence and give themselves more options, with shorter passes and the game-breakers working more closely together to play what they saw in front of them.

If lessons have been learnt from that game, in particular, the difference between playing good, intelligent rugby as opposed to all the rugby, then it may even have been a turning point for this Irish team.

Paul O'Connell is Ireland's most important forward, so his absence as a leader could compound that of Anthony Foley's.

But if O'Sullivan and the Irish management team press the right motivational buttons, if they set about imposing their lineout and maul earlier than the 38th minute, if David Wallace, Denis Leamy, Donncha O'Callaghan and co provide the hard yards, then Ireland have the greater physicality up front to draw the lines in the sand.

With Ronan O'Gara's clever boot, and a good kick-and-chase game into the corners, it's all about applying pressure, thereby multiplying the pressure that is already on Wales.

Admittedly, the evidence of recent outings suggests Wales have a superior scrum, and South African referee Jonathan Kaplan, who will have done his homework, will allow them to scrum.

Wales will be physical, but, with reports of new Wallabies coach John Connolly having boarded a plane to Britain to lure Johnson and Michael Foley back Down Under, as a statement of what they are about they will assuredly adhere to the Johnson revolution now as much as ever.

Quick taps, a high tempo, fast and loose, counter-attacking and striking off turnovers as they do, better than anyone.

And their ball-in-hand game, especially among their forwards, is better coached and more advanced than Ireland's.

Dwayne Peel is the heartbeat of it all. He's as liable to tap a penalty 10 metres from his line as he is 10 metres from the opposition's. And the thing is, everybody in red will be attuned to what he's doing.

One cannot doubt the spirit within this Welsh squad. They've shown it in adversity before, not least when they lost Gareth Thomas midway through last season's Slam in Paris. Yet you feel Thomas' leadership and talismanic values were most needed for this one.

Then factor in the absence of Tom Shanklin, such a key runner in last season's whirlwind brand of rugby; Shane Williams, the catalyst for so much of their counter-attacking game; the hard yards of Ryan Jones and the abrasiveness of Brent Cockbain.

Even Gethin Jenkins, post-Lions, looks nothing like the tower of strength and prop-of-the-campaign he was this time last year.

Bottom line, you go through the starting XVs and Ireland's match up better.

This becomes even more pronounced in the three-quarter line and at fullback.

Ireland have so many more tries and proven finishing ability per man at this level. And though that might not be the winning of it - packs win matches and backs by how much - Brian O'Driscoll, Gordon D'Arcy, Geordan Murphy and co give Ireland a much sharper cutting edge against what was a softish Welsh defence out wide against Scotland.

Ireland will not play all the rugby tomorrow. But they have the capacity to play the more effective rugby.

Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)

Odds (Paddy Power): 2/7 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 12/5 Wales. Handicap betting (=Wales +9pts) 10/11 Ireland, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Wales.

Forecast: Ireland to win.